Niall Lyons shares his betting tips and preview for the Houston Open.
The Turkey we festively slice is getting ever nearer and we have two full field events to go before the tour shuts up shop for the year. Who's counting? Me? Never. Memorial Park continues as the host of the Houston Open now for the third year on the trot.
Driving Distance here over the last couple of years has clearly helped with Kokrak winning last year ranking 14th in Distance and 14th SG OTT. Scheffler and Tway who filled the runner up spots were 8th and 6th in Driving Distance respectively.
Back in 2021 Ortiz won here ranking 13th in Driving Distance, whilst Dustin Johnson finished runner up topping the distance stat for the week. Despite a short enough yardage at just over 7000 yards this par 70 clearly favours the bigger hitters and a solid tee to green game will be needed here if you're looking to compete over the weekend. A hot putter is unlikely to make up for any sins with the long game so I'll be looking towards the most consistent tee to green performers here in Texas.
Emiliano Grillo at 50/1 (Eight Places)
Certain weeks look quite easy to take a favourite on but this isn't one of them and Scheffler will likely take all the beating this week. A tremendous final round 62 in Mexico seen him bag a top three finish and beat the runaway winner by five shots over the weekend.
Scheffler was runner up in this last year and generally plays well on these layouts the require a lot more than the grip it and rip it technique. He is winless since April however and for that reason alone I'm inclined to swerve getting involved at 6/1. Emiliano Grillo at 50/1 looks a decent proposition and my headline selection goes the way of the Argentine.
He has kicked off this season in fine fashion with two top 5s in six appearances and I'm hoping he can go even better here in Houston. Grillo has always been a top class ball striker but similar to Henley who won last week, probably doesn't get the results out of his game that he deserves.
His putter is often the cause of problems on the course but he has started this season with decent putting statistics and should that continue then his long game should grant him more opportunities. Last week in Mexico he was 33/1 and a drift to 50s doesn't quite look right to me and with a top three already posted in Houston before Grillo could follow in Henley's footsteps and gain an overdue victory.
1.5pts each-way E.Grillo 50/1 (1/5 8)
Dean Burmester at 80/1 (Eight places)
If a ball buster is to win this week and it's not the tournament favourite, Dean Burmester must be high up that list of contenders and I'm surprised a general price of 80/1 is out there this week. The South African has reached new heights these past few months without a win and sits not a million miles away from the top 50 in the world and all the trappings it brings with it.
Burmester shone in Scotland in July finishing 10th at the Renaissance before an 11th placed finish at St Andrews. That is enough to suggest he can certainly cope with any wind that comes our way as it often does in Texas.
A couple of top five finishes in the Korn Ferry Tour finished out the season and he has continued that form into the fall series. 4th at the Sanderson then solid finishes of 37th at the Shriners and 32nd in Mexico mean he has plenty to play for in the final few weeks before the break.
A break into the world's top 50 is not out of the question at this stage. His game off the tee is in great nick however he will need a degree of improvement with the irons. Nevertheless, he fits the profile very similar to Kokrak and Ortiz the past couple of years and the 80/1 on offer is just too tempting to turn down.
1.5pts each-way D.Burmester 80/1 (1/5 8)
Mathew Nesmith at 45/1 (Eight places)
Matthew Nesmith has built a young career on hitting greens for fun and I expect that game to pay dividends this week in Houston. He missed the cut here two years ago but that was down to a hugely underperforming short game whilst he was superb off the tee and on approach. Last year he limped to a 46th placed finish with little in the way of talking points.
His ball striking has always been a phenomenal strength and from tee to green is where it pays here at Memorial Park. This season so far has been a huge success finishing 9th at the Sanderson Farms, runner up at the Shriners then 9th in Japan. His ball striking has been it's regular spectacular self and if that continues surely he can threaten here in Texas.
1pt each-way M.NeSmith 45/1 (1/5 8)
Taylor Pendrith at 80/1 (Eight places)
Taylor Pendrith has been lightly raced since coming back from injury in the Summer and only one week of tournament golf since the Presidents Cup in September is probably a positive as he comes to terms with a disappointing week in Charlotte. He probably didn't get what he deserved that week, especially after the opening few matches where he was continually let down by his partners.
44th at the Shriner followed in what was a solid ball striking performance only to be let down by a poorer than average short game. Pendrith came back in July following a four month absence to finish 13th in the Barbasol and he continued that great form right the way through to the BMW Championship. That effort at the Barbasol suggests he may well go better fresh and a few weeks off without the trip to Mexico could go in his favour. Pendrith has bags of talent and I expect him to win on the tour sooner rather than later.
I make Aaron Wise an uneasy third favourite around the 18/1 mark and if that is the barometer I can't help but feel Pendrith should be a lot closer to him in the market. Jason Day makes plenty of appeal following a barnstorming run last week after the first round but the layers are taking no chances chalking him up around the 28/1 mark.
1pt each-way T.Pendrith 80/1 (1/5 8)
