Alfred Dunhill Championship Tips, Odds & Tee Times at Leopard Creek

The penultimate week of the year takes place at the special Leopard Creek Golf Club in South Africa on the edge of the Kruger National Park. The course went under the knife in 2017 with a change in grass from kikuyu to Cynodon as well as the greens being changed to Bermuda from Bentgrass.

We've seen the course firm up since and the last few renewals have been much tougher than those that went before. Larrazabal won in 2019 with a score of eight under limping home in the end struggling in the conditions. Sandwiched either side of the Spaniard have been Lipsky and Bezuidenhout both winning at 14 under par, considerably less than the 20 under par+ scores that won two of the previous three.

It remains to be seen but with six South African winners of this event the six years prior to the course restoration, and only one in the last three post renovation, there could be a sway to a more eclectic mix of winners here in the future with the removal of kikuyu rough.

Fairways are notoriously difficult to find and it'll be those who can tick off plenty of greens in regulation or who bring a sharp short game to Leopard Creek who will be in the mix come Sunday.

It's a difficult puzzle to solve I believe and it is a tough task to separate the market leaders. Bezuidenhout looks short despite being defending champion here. He was an 8/1 shot two starts ago in Joburg without Oosthuizen, Schwartzel, Burmester, Grace, Jamieson and Rozner.

Granted a good effort there and winning course form entitles him to shift a little in the market but with the opposition added it seems a little on the stingy side the 9/1 on offer this week. Oosthuizen is an interesting challenger also but my preference at the top of the market goes to Burmester and Schwartzel.

Dean Burmester at 18/1

Dean Burmester made four cuts from five in the fall events in the States which included a top five at the Sanderson before returning to his home country last week to finish 5th at the SA Open. Burmester earned his PGA card at the Korn Ferry Finals in September and has impressed ever since.

After a few weeks off his effort last week was impressive and having been around the 14/1 mark last week I think he is worthy of more respect despite the additions of the front two in the market. We have seen over the years what an advantage it is to be playing on the pga tour and then drop down to this class. This isn't quite the drop there is in some other events across the year but nevertheless the market is front loaded, and thereafter there is little competition that the likes of Burmester would be afraid of.

If he can manage a decent week of accuracy from the tee his driving would be a huge advantage around here. The worry here is his record with a myriad of missed cuts amongst a couple of top 20's but he certainly looks a much improved player arriving this year and has the class to add his name to this illustrious group of South African winners.

2.5pts WIN D.Burmester  18/1

Charl Schwartzel at 14/1 

Schwartzel is a train I find hard to step off this week given one bad 9 holes on Friday last week cost him a decent chance of contending. Schwartzel has three victories and a further four top four finishes here at Leopard Creek which is an astonishing record and taking 14/1 here seems like a no brainer.

As I mentioned last week his game certainly looks to have improved for the switch to LIV golf and he was the first to land one of the big prizes in London in June. This was following some encouraging efforts in the States, not least his top 10 at the Masters in April. He certainly appears to be heading back towards some of his best golf which seen him go off as short as 7/2 here.

The South African contingent is stronger than what it was back when he was winning this event but prices somewhat reflect that. In this sort of form at Leopard Creek he looks to have a better shot than 1 in 14 and I'm prepared to back these sub 20/1 shots win only this week.

2.5pts WIN C.Schwartzel  14/1

Eddie Ppperell at 40/1 (Eight places)

Bezuidenhout went off 20/1 at the Nedbank a few starts ago and Eddie Pepperell was only a few pts bigger at 25s. This time we see 9/1 v 40/1 and it looks slightly unbalanced in favour of the Englishman. 49th at the Nedbank and 34th in Dubai was certainly no disgrace only really losing ground to the field off the tee.

Leopard Creek is a place where he can manufacture his way round with his trusted three wood and narrow that gap in the deficiencies off the tee. The rest of his game has been firing, in particular his putter, despite a couple of wayward efforts in Mallorca and Sun City.

He was 8th here back in 2015 which included the 5th lowest round of the week with a 65. Leopard Creek is a perfect chance for him to display the positives about his game and he has drifted to a nice enough number to get involved with.

1pt each-way E.Pepperell  40/1  (1/5 8)

Darius Van Driel at 150/1 (Seven places)

Darius Van Driel was no bigger than 50/1 a few starts ago at the Joburg Open and I believe two poor efforts at two courses that don't suit the Dutchman's game has resulted in far too big a price. Van Driel likes to plot his way around courses as he has little in the way of power off the tee. He was much more suited by the tests in Spain in October with a top 10 at Club de Campo and a top 20 at Valderrama.

Another top 20 followed in Portugal on a course where length really is an advantage. Joburg and in particular the new course last week weren't suited to his game and a trip around the much more intricate Leopard Creek will be welcome for Van Driel.

Triple the price he was two starts ago, 150/1 awaits at Kruger National Park and I'm excited about his chances of playing himself into the places at the very least. 

1pt each-way D.Van Driel  150/1  (1/5 7)