Niall Lyons shares his betting tips and preview for the Sentry Tournament of Champions.
Sentry Tournament of Champions - Winner
A restart around four weeks after we last seen these players in action is never easy and there is plenty to contemplate before placing those first hopeful golf bets of the year.
Despite the break, there are indeed reasons to be hopeful of landing a winner in Hawaii with a wealth of knowledge we have on the place after a lifetime of tuning in.
Sentry Tournament of Champions Tips
There are many ways to skin this cat but for the most part, this is dominated these days by the longer hitters. There are plenty of approach shots here from 50-100 yards but they are mostly 'feel' shots that require a fair deal of imagination. The more important approach play shots come from 175-200+ and focusing in on those who perform well in that category could pay dividends.
The top three last year all exceeded the 30 under par mark which suggests the changes made by Coore and Crenshaw made a few years ago have shown no damage to the scoring and if the wind doesn't arrive we can look at similar scores once again.
Thomas won in 14 under par a few years previous which shows what can happen when the wind blows here. Friday and Saturday look the worst for the wind and it looks set to keep them honest for the week. It will be enough to curb scores so as not to threaten Smith's record here, but Thomas' total of 2020 should be easily beaten.
Aaron Wise at 40/1 (Six Places)
Will Zalatoris is a top price of 25/1 to win the Masters in April yet turns up here in Hawaii a 33/1 shot. That will interest plenty but caution must be exercised with this being his first outing since August following a back injury. If fit, the course will suit and he could be one to get on side should he manage a good start.
At slightly bigger odds my preference in this price bracket is for Aaron Wise. After a few seasons of struggling with the putter, late in 2021 he re-introduced the broom putter to his game for the first time since college golf and saw a big upturn in fortunes on the greens.
That carried through 2022 going all the way to East Lake, and he has started the 2023 season in fine form with the same club ranking inside the top 20 on tour currently in strokes gained putting. 6th in the CJ Cup was followed by a top 20 in Mexico then a top 25 in Houston where he cited fatigue as a possible reason why he faded after a share of the first round lead in Texas.
He did of course land a win in the windy state winning at the Coore/Crenshaw designed Trinity Forest back in 2018, both of whom redesigned this track in Hawaii a few years ago. A score of 23 under par there shows what he is capable of in the birdie fests.
A nod to Wise's college career is worthy of note also as previous to his 2021 switch to the longer putter his last time using it was for his first college win, the Ka'anapali Classic here in Hawaii. Another college win in Hawaii was achieved by Wise in 2016 at the Amer Ari Invitational so he clearly has a love for the country and his record on these exposed courses is eye catching.
Winless since 2018 has been surprising but he reached another level these past six months and another win looks around the corner. He looks better equipped to land that second prize in Hawaii more than anywhere else so must be closely watched over the next two weeks.
2pts each-way A.Wise 40/1 (1/5 6)
Sungjae Im at 22/1 (Six Places)
Harris English around the 33/1 mark in 2021 was the biggest priced winner of this event since Jonathan Byrd in 2011. Plenty between 9/2 and 14/1 have taken the spoils between that time and it'd be foolish not to sift through the market leaders and see whose price best suits.
Tony Finau is certainly of interest at a top price of 16/1 having gone off the same price among the same golfers for the BMW back in late August. Since then he has managed a win in Houston and shows no signs of slowing down. Therefore there is an argument that he should shorter in the market as there is with Sungjae Im.
Sungjae can consider himself to be very unlucky to be winless since July with runner ups at the 3M Open, Wyndham Championship and Tour Championship. He was producing sparkling stuff and continued in decent fashion into this season with 7th at the Shriners, and 8th in the World Challenge.
The Korean is one of the best exponents on the tour from 175+ yards and that has proven a big advantage here down the years. Two appearances here have resulted in two top tens with his 5th place in 2021 caveated by having a poor week on the greens. He is 45 under par for eight rounds here and given his bunch of close finishes in the second half of last year I believe he deserves more respect in the market than the 22/1 placed upon him here.
2pts each-way S.Im 22/1 (1/5 6)
Xander Schauffele at 12/1
Finally, having placed two wagers above the 20/1 mark I'll get one of the favourites on side and my pick of them is Xander Schauffele. Schauffele has gained a reputation for being an expert in smaller field events having won a WGC in the Far East, the 2017 Tour Championship, the Olympics Men event in 2020, the Zurich in 2022 and of course the 2019 edition of this event.
Throw in his ability in the wind shown on numerous occasions and we have someone perfect for this test. His win at this year's Scottish Open is a perfect example of how he can cope in these conditions with fiddly approaches and elevation changes.
With little competitive golf since August he finished 9th in the Zozo and 4th in the Hero further boosting his credentials to go well fresh. His Zurich teammate Patrick Cantlay is another serious threat given his potency for birdies and it's quite easy to see these two going well this week.
The increase in the wind compared to last year looks a little challenging and this tips the balance in favour of Schauffele who at close to double the odds of Jon Rahm is the better option this week.
2.5pts WIN X.Schauffele 12/1
