Niall Lyons shares his golf betting tips and preview for the Genesis Invitational.
Genesis Invitational
Riviera In Los Angeles has long since been the host for this, one of the most prestigious events of the calendar year. The field doesn't disappoint once again and it remains to be seen from a betting perspective what these elevated events produce in the long term. The tree lined track is challenging off the tee with fairways notoriously hard to hit.
Kikuyu rough awaits errant shots and can cause huge problems. Being blocked out by trees is another factor for those straying from the tee. Despite it being challenging off the tee it hasn't stopped the bombers making hay here over the last number of years. Bubba, Dustin and Holmes have shared five of the last nine events here and there is no doubting the sluggers will have a significant advantage.
Mickelson obliged a few times also as well as fellow Masters champions Adam Scott, Mike Weir, Nick Faldo, Craig Stadler and Fred Couples. Augusta runner ups Chip Beck, Len Mattiace and Ernie Els all have wins around Riviera also so Augusta form is clearly a pointer to a potential winner here.
We have small greens once again that favour a high ball flight and those with strong performances off the tee recently must be closely looked at. Poa Annua greens is another feature to look at here with particular attention to form at Pebble and Torrey in recent weeks.
Viktor Hovland at 28/1 (Eight Places)
Viktor Hovland has managed two top five finishes here over the past couple of years and he looks well equipped to make another bold fist this week and challenge the in form favourites. 2022 started off well for Hovland but tailed off in the middle of March and he failed to find form until landing at St Andrews.
Ever since he has been remarkably consistent culminating in an impressive win at the Hero World Challenge in December. Top 20s kicked off the 2023 campaign in fair fashion at Kapalua and Pebble before finishing 42nd last week in Scottsdale. That was his best finish there to date having missed two previous cuts and I won't be putting too much importance on that effort.
His ball striking was solid enough last week but it was the short game that let him down and TPC Scottsdale can be tricky when you miss greens. The setup at 17 for example is the exact sort of intricacies that befuddle Hovland. That driveable par 4 presents problems for those who don't possess a special short game and it's no surprise he played one of the easiest holes on the course in level par for the week making no birdies.
He did make plenty though, ranking 8th in the field for birdies made (18). Hovland ranks 105th on tour on strokes gained around the green but it's worth noting that to date he is above tour average and this is his best season so far in is career in that department. A return to Poa Annua greens should help his putting given he ranks 12th in the field on this surface. He should be licking his lips at a return to Riviera and anything of 28/1 or above looks worthy of investment.
2.5pts each-way V.Hovland 28/1 (1/5 8) Bet365
Justin Thomas to win at 17/1
Cameron Young went close here last year and will be on the radar for many this week in California. His runner up in Saudi is a solid effort but I was slightly surprised he didn't manage to defeat Ancer there over the weekend. So his winless run continues despite some sparkling golf and for that reason alone I'm happy to leave him off the staking plan at the published prices.
Instead I'll back Justin Thomas who produced a much better week off the tee in Arizona and whose long game could be reaching somewhere near his best. Thomas ranked 2nd from tee to green last week and was only beaten by Scheffler over the final three rounds having shot an average level par round on Thursday.
Putting remains the one part of his game that is slightly off but he has putted well here at Riviera down the years and with three Top 10 finishes must fancy his chances. Only three players beat his 3rd round score at Phoenix and only one managed to beat him on Sunday so the evidence is there and he managed to improve his putting each and every day there at Scottsdale.
I am happy to bank on that being a trend that follows him to Riviera and more than double the price of Rahm certainly doesn't look right given that effort in Phoenix.
3pts WIN J.Thomas 17/1 (Enhanced Win Only Bet365)
Taylor Montgomery at 80/1 (10 Places)
A somewhat risky but necessary play due to the price at Riviera is Taylor Montgomery. He burst out of the traps on tour finishing 3rd in the Fortinet in September by putting the field into submission. That was a sign of things to come and what he has done on the greens since is nothing short of phenomenal.
A dip in form with the putter at Torrey was followed by another lacklustre effort on the greens last week but I don't expect that trend to continue much longer. Niemann won here last year with a sparkling short game and Montgomery can emulate him here.
He is no slouch off the tee performing extremely well in that department but his iron play is sub standard to the rest of his game. Like others who excel in various departments though Montgomery won't need all parts of his game in their finest tune if he manages to achieve what he is capable of on and around the greens.
That touch has certainly been missing the last two weeks but a drift towards the 80/1 mark is a slight overreaction seeing he went off 25/1 just a few starts ago at the Farmers.
1.5pts each-way T.Montgomery 80/1 (1/5 10) PaddyPower
Alex Smalley at 200/1 (10 Places)
Nick Taylor went close to causing an upset last week in Arizona but these elevated events now will be a major task for anyone around his level to break through. When looking to the bigger priced numbers in these events the task will be to find someone who has the ability to eventually break into that top category.
There are a handful in that bracket on my list for Riviera and I'll start with Alex Smalley. Smalley has acquitted himself admirably thus far on the PGA Tour with a solid ball striking game being the key to his success.
A handful of top six finishes have been impressive and although you'd hope for more of a spike with his putting he certainly doesn't lack the ability to put a solid week in all four departments of the game. I had him more on my radar for coastal events after a top five at the RSM in November and what we can take from the pro am at Pebble is questionable.
He drives the ball a long way and accurate into the bargain so Riviera should be a venue that suits.
1pt each-way A.Smalley 200/1 (1/5 10) PaddyPower
Patrick Rodgers at 150/1 (10 Places)
Another at triple figure prices who must be included is Patrick Rodgers. The maiden tag is still bestowed upon him but at some stage he will surely shred it and Riviera looks like an ideal venue all be it up against a very strong field. He was in great form at the end of 2022 finishing 3rd in Bermuda, 16th in Houston then 10th in Sea Island.
The American Express and Farmers are difficult to analyse seeing we only have stats for one course but his two missed cuts certainly look down to an underperforming long game. That was put right last week in Arizona where he finished 14th whilst shooting a 65 in the final round alongside Thomas and Scheffler and only beaten on the day by a 63 from Beau Hossler.
Rodgers found form with his irons during that final round ranking 2nd in the field in strokes gained approach for those 18 holes and if he takes that game to Riviera then we could see him easily contend at a really pretty price.
1pt each-way P.Rodgers 150/1 (1/5 10) PaddyPower
Wyndham Clark at 80/1 (10 Places)
Not many Presidents Cup players arrive here at triple figures but Cameron Davis is one and should he bounce back to form he'd certainly have the capability of threatening the top end of the market. An 11 over par total across two rounds at Torrey is difficult to get over though and he'll remain one to watch in the coming weeks.
Kurt Kitayama improved over the final three days last week for a top 25 finish in Phoenix after shooting four over par on the opening day and following his disappointing final day at Pebble could go well once again back in his home state. Justin Suh is another who after a promising effort at Torrey could take to these Championship courses like a duck to water.
He is the one outsider most difficult to leave off the list but I slightly favour Wyndham Clark to get into the mix having shown plenty of promise last week. Clark is a consistent performer who hits the ball a country mile off the tee.
He isn't the most accurate but despite tight fairways here it's not a required skill to keep it in play. Scott (4th last year) ranked 54th in driving accuracy, Hovland (4th) ranked 57th in the same statistic whilst the winner Niemann ranked 58th hitting only 25 fairways that week.
Similar played out last week with Clark ranking 66th in driving accuracy around Scottsdale but still managing a top 10 finish courtesy of a stellar approach game (8th in the field) and a nice touch around the greens (4th in the field).
That bodes well for Riviera and although I believe not many long shots will win these elevated events, guys such as Clark who can rival some of the best off the tee must be supported.
1pt each-way W.Clark 80/1 (1/5 10) PaddyPower
