Niall Lyons shares his golf betting tips and preview for the Honda Classic.
Honda Classic Winner
The West Coast makes way for Florida and the highly fascinating Honda Classic at the heavily Niclaus-influenced PGA National. This track has always been one of the most difficult on tour outside of the majors and despite a lack of wind forecast this week will remain a stern test for the entire field. Only three times in the last 11 years has scoring got into double digits under par and on two of those occasions it was four and five shots back to second place.
It is important to be neat from tee to green here with plenty of hazards awaiting errant drives or approaches throughout the 18. Wind has often played a part in this and looking at the past winners we can see that. Fowler, Scott, Harrington, McIlroy, Els, Hamilton, Leonard, Kuchar, Parnevik, Calcavecchia, O'Meara and Price are a handful since the 90s who have won this and often written themselves into Open Championship folklore.
Despite a lack of wind forecast this week I will be looking to these types of players who enjoy a tough challenge. Five of the last 10 winners here have started the week at triple figure prices and although a weakened field makes the trip this year it's important to look all the way down the betting market this week in search of some golden nuggets.
Aaron Rai at 50/1 (Eight Places)
Aaron Rai based himself at Sawgrass a couple of years ago and if he is to land a blow and get over the line on the PGA tour I believe a tough resort test such as this represents his best chance. First and foremost this is a tough examination from tee to green and the Englishman's ball striking has been quite impressive on the west coast in recent weeks.
52nd at the Farmers, 42nd in Phoenix and 29th at the Genesis are fair results in much stronger fields than what we see this week. Dangerous winds aren't forecast this week but they'll be kept honest throughout and we saw a number of years ago at the Renaissance just what he can do when the field is up against tough conditions. Rai's accuracy from the tee is a huge advantage around here and with his irons firing lately he holds a fair chance of contending here.
Ryan Palmer at 60/1 (Eight Places)
It has been 13 years since Ryan Palmer last tasted victory on tour but I feel he has been slightly underestimated by the market because of average looking results on paper lately. Look closer and you'll see some impressive efforts with the irons.
40th on approach at the Sony was followed by 27th in the same stat at the Farmers then 18th on approach at Scottsdale. In stronger fields these are very fair efforts and if that sort of form continues with those clubs he could be a threat here.
4th in 2019 here and runner up in 2014 are a sign of what he is capable of around here and although course form isn't all too relevant at this course it surely is a positive. It has been a long time between drinks between Palmer does like these windier tests and comes a little under the radar with his long game in decent shape.
Ben Martin at 200/1 (Eight Places)
Ben Martin has shown plenty this year to date and I'm surprised that 200/1 is out there. He finished 2nd on approach at the Sony in January and there have been signs since that he is very close to reaching some of his best form in a long time. In the desert in California he was up against it having shot a level par first round and although he missed the cut he fired a seven under par round two ranking 14th on approach that day.
A missed cut at Torrey is of no worry as he'd struggle on a course of that length and a top 15 finish at Pebble was more evidence he is playing very solid golf. He has made three cuts from three here down the years and at 200/1 looks the pick of the outsiders.
Jonas Blixt at 250/1 (Eight Places)
Two time PGA tour winner Jonas Blixt is a forgotten man almost but he may well just be hitting form at the right time to capitalise on a field of this nature. The Swede endured a horrendous 2022 season making only five cuts from 21 appearances. 2023 didn't start too well on the Korn Ferry Tour either with a couple of missed cuts in the Bahamas but he appeared to find something out of the blue at Pebble Beach to manage a top 20 there.
7th last week on the Korn Ferry Tour backed up his week at Pebble and finally the Swede looks to have hit form. It may be too soon and we may need more evidence but I'm prepared to take the chance and I'd rather play a couple of speculative prices here than get involved at the very top of the market.
0.75pt each-way J.Blixt 250/1 (1/5 8) Skybet, Powers, William Hill, Bet 365
Harrison Endycott at 400/1 (Eight Places)
Harrison Endycott will be well versed in windy conditions coming from Australia and there have been a handful of promising efforts from him in his rookie season to date to think he could go well here in this weakened contest. Endycott finished 12th in his first PGA tour appearance at the Fortinet and he said the money earned there is a real monkey off his back for funding the rest of the season.
10th at a windy Bermuda was another impressive performance and an indication that he could go well here. 22nd followed at the American Express and although a shade is inconsistent that is to be expected for a rookie. His iron play has been dodgy in recent weeks but at the price, in this field, I'm prepared to give him a chance.
