Niall Lyons shares his golf betting tips and preview for the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Arnold Palmer Invitational
Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler have landed the three elevated events on tour date and as I mentioned a few weeks ago it will be very difficult for any lesser sorts to get over the line in these events. Rahm has taken two of the last three and arrives here the best player in the world and clearly deserved jolly.
He is lightly raced around this track though and this may be the week where he finds some difficulty maintaining that recent record. Bayhill as ever will provide one of the sterner tests of the year with all departments of your game under the microscope here.
Thick rough awaits errant drives and with many approaches coming from 200 yards+ a premium no doubt is on the long game. Wind looks likely to play its part from Friday onwards also.
Will Zalatoris at 22/1 (Eight Places)
Will Zalatoris put any worries about his health to bed a couple of weeks ago with an impressive performance through the bag at Riviera finishing inside the top five. His work off the tee has been solid since his return but a return to form with his irons at the Genesis was welcome following a poor display in that department at Torrey.
When it comes to tough tests such as this Zalatoris is the most consistent of the lot. 5-under par totals at last years PGA and US Open were enough for runner up finishes each time for the Californian and finally getting over the line at Southwind last August was a monkey off his back. More success is inevitable and probably in the biggest and best events the tour has.
Bayhill hosts one of those best and I expect Zalatoris to give a bold fist of improving his best effort here of 10th place a couple of years ago. The rough will be juicy and the longer the average yardage of approach on a golf course the more he looks to be able to separate himself from the rest. His irons are hugely impressive from 200 yards+ and he looks the pick of the bunch of those towards the top of the market.
2.5pts each-way W.Zalatoris 22/1 (1/5 8) WilliamHill, SkyBet
Cameron Young at 50/1 (Eight Places)
Corey Conners sits an interesting number given his record here and his ball striking so far this term is impressive. The putter as always will be the key to unlocking the door and the spiking efforts just aren't there as often as you hope. He finds it difficult to win and that's just about enough to put you off in a field of this calibre.
There are a handful in the mid range price that look very likely to contend this week and probably the most difficult one to leave off the staking plan is Tyrrell Hatton. The Englishman has a win and runner up here in the past three years and is striking the ball lately. All departments are in working order and it's only the price that puts me off slightly this week.
Instead at slightly bigger odds I'll opt for Cameron Young who should relish a return to Bayhill. His only previous effort here resulted in a 13th placed finish and should he manage to find something with his shot game then he'll fancy his chances of shredding the maiden tag.
His ball striking stats so far this year make for eyewatering reading and he must consider himself very unlucky not have posted better efforts. He was 2nd in the Saudi International but has yet to break the Top 10 in four PGA Tour starts this year. That has all been largely down to a rancid putter ranking 62/69 in the Amex, 62/66 in Phoenix and 52/68 at the Genesis.
The only upside is that he has improved with each of those starts with the putter and should he manage to gain on the field ever so slightly his long game is in such good condition that he will be a tough opponent to beat.
1.5pts each-way C.Young 45/1 (1/5 8) WilliamHill
Jordan Spieth at 45/1 (Eight Places)
Jordan Spieth only has one appearance here to his name but it was a notable one finishing 4th back in 2021. He was just two behind heading into Sunday but a final round 75 saw him fall out of winning contention. Overall Spieth is just the type of candidate you'd look to for a test such as this because when all parts of his game begin to fire he is a very tough man to beat.
The one big gamble in that department is his putter. It let him down at Phoenix when he ranked 2nd in the field for the week in approach play and it let him down once again at Riviera where he missed the cut despite his irons being in very good shape once again. He has gained more distance off the tee in recent months and that should be a positive at a slog such as Bayhill.
If he finds trouble from the tee there aren't many better equipped to get up and down from greenside spots. His putter is the big concern but from history we know that if Spieth's long game is in good shape then it is a simple waiting game for the putter to catch up. If we manage anything around the 40/1 mark that's more than enough juice to take the gamble.
1.25pt each-way J.Spieth 45/1 (1/5 8) Bet365
Viktor Hovland at 30/1 (Eight Places)
Although there are little in the way of negatives surrounding McIlroy and Scheffler some of the others towards the top of the market look taking on this week. Rahm has only one previous appearance here and for a prestigious event such as this it must be questioned why he hasn't turned up more often.
This will be Cantlay's debut here this week whilst Thomas and Schauffele have only one appearance each to date with each failing to break the Top 20 on those occasions. It may pay to looks elsewhere and another who has the talent to take down a field of this strength is Victor Hovland.
Having won the Hero Challenge in December Hovland has been pretty consistent to date in 2023 with three Top 20s coming at the Sentry, Pebble and Genesis events. On each of those occasions he has failed to land a blow with his putter and any upturn in that department could prove pivotal.
Hovland hasn't turned up in many of the toughest majors in the last few years but he does have 4-under par runner up here last year at Bayhill, and runner ups at Toorrey Pines and the heavily correlated track Quail Hollow. The Norwegian is one of the best exponents from 150-200 yards and 200+ so this represents a big opportunity should he manage a small upturn on the greens.
1.25pt each-way V.Hovland 30/1 (1/5 8) Bet365, WilliamHill
Justin Rose at 90/1 (Eight Places)
Further down the field recent winner Justin Rose certainly looks interesting at 90/1. I was wrongly put off by his price as Pebble and his effort there backed up the recent improvements he had shown. I can't help but feel the shorter tracks at Pebble certainly suited him as he has lost considerable distance in the last couple of years.
However, there are plenty of ways to skin this Bayhill cat and the prime example is just two years ago when Bryson went head to head with Westwood with both tipping the scales in opposite directions on the distance stats at the time.
Rose missed the cut on the number at Riviera which isn't overly concerning and a return to Bayhill may provide another springboard to success given he has three top three finishes here. I'd prefer him to be hitting the ball further but I was pleased with the price on offer and am happy to favour him over Conners and Hatton.
1pt each-way J.Rose 90/1 (1/5 8) Bet365
Taylor Pendrith at 175/1 (Eight Places)
Taylor Pendrith has shred his ultra consistent tag but I remain convinced of his ability to land a prize soon on the pga tour and although this week is a tall order I can't help but feel he is way overpriced. A few starts ago the Canadian shot a final round of 8-under par to shoot into the Top 10 at Pebble Beach but has failed to back that up since.
57th in Arizona and 42nd in Florida look average enough finishes but it must be noted that he gained shots on the field in all departments of his game last week at PGA National and although excelling in no particular area he doesn't look to be playing so bad. On his debut here last year he sat inside the Top 20 heading into the final round before shooting 78 to finish 42nd.
His putter remains the hottest club in his bag and his length off the tee should prove advantageous in these conditions. Overall, anything at 150/1 or above looks a shade too big for the 2022 Presidents Cup member.
1pt each-way T.Pendrith 175/1 (1/5 8) Bet365
