Valspar Championship Tips, Odds and Tee Times: Spieth suited to Copperhead test

We can let out a collective sigh of relief with the PGA Tour heading to Copperhead as the extremely strong fields make way for a slighlty weaker one this week in Innisbrook, Florida. It doesn't hit anywhere near the depths of the Honda a few weeks ago but this does provide an opportunity for those who were slightly up against it field wise in recent weeks.

Thomas heads the field and at 9/1 is fairly interesting. His irons haven't quite been at the level he is used to lately and for that reason only I'll be passing him up this week. The course itself requires a fair deal of accuracy from the tee with dog legs contributing to a handful of lay ups of the tee.

This results in a track that doesn't favour the biggest hitting in the game and the winners rota here is a testament to that. Colonial and Sedgefield are two similar tracks I look to for clues and with wind in the forecast this week those who can control their irons with a decent recovery game will come to the fore.

Jordan Spieth to win at 13/1 

Jordan Spieth looks to have a swing cemented and with little tinkering needed I can't help but feel a win is around the corner. He does have the weight of the golfing public on his shoulders with everyone willing golf's best entertainer to get over the line once again. It could and maybe should have happened at Bayhill and of all those who had a chance to win that Sunday evening,

Spieth will be the one who hurt the most. The missed putts were crucial, but even more so was his driving during those final few holes where he put himself under enormous pressure to hole those short putts. He now has the chance to get out in front on a venue much more suited to his talents and where he gained his second tour victory back in 2015.

Had his driver behaved a little better last week at Sawgrass he could have easily improved upon his 19th placed finish. This time around there is less pressure on the driver with many holes forcing lay ups to dog legs and approaches from 150 yards+. A lot of Spieth's wins depends upon him being comfortable and not stressing over venues, and this is one where he can comfortably play his own game.

Copperhead is similar to Colonial in many ways where he has a victory and a handful of runner up finishes. His irons are red hot and he should relish these perfect bermuda surfaces where often the best putters shine. 

4pts WIN J.Spieth  13/1 (888sport)

Justin Rose at 25/1 (Eight Places)

There are plenty who came close to making the staking plan this week including JT Poston who has a win at the correlated Sedgefield on his CV. Poston putts well on Bermuda greens and looks a fair price at 50/1+. Webb Simpson's irons didn't perform last week at Sawgrass but this venue will suit slightly more and a return to better form can't be ruled out as swing changes continue to bed in.

Ben An and David Lingmerth have been performing extremely well on approach play recently also and will appeal to many. Any sort of form with the putter from those guys around a venue like this could prove vital. Will Gordon is another who performs extremely well with his long game and he has the talent to land a victory soon. Possibly a more driver heavy course would suit but he is one to watch as the season progresses. 

After a handful of recent solid efforts from triple figure pokes in this column I'm heading more towards the top of the market this week and I'm drawn towards Justin Rose who can follow up his recent win at Pebble Beach. I was slightly put off by his price that week and I really ought not to have been and we see the same price this week even though it's a slightly stronger affair than Pebble.

His driving at Riviera and Bayhill came under pressure as expected and Rose will continue to find difficulty with courses that demand some sort of length off the tee. That isn't the issue here and he'll be suited by the more strategic element of Copperhead, a course where he has landed a couple of top 10 finishes. He has lost a lot of length from the tee in the last 12 months and courses like Pebble and this will be the venues on which Rose can recapture some of his best days.

6th last week at Sawgrass was an impressive effort especially given he didn't putt as well he what he has been in recent weeks. Any upturn with that club should give him a reasonable chance of following up here with his second victory in five starts.

2pts each-way J.Rose  25/1  (1/5 8) Paddypower, William Hill, Bet365

Keegan Bradley at 25/1 (Eight Places)

Prior to Sam Burns' victories only once in the previous seven renewals did the winning score get beyond 10 under par. This is one of the tougher tests on the tour and for that reason Keegan Bradley must be played. Bradley has continued to impress since his win at the Zozo, a course that demands a fair degree of strategy and accuracy from tee to green.

An 11 under par total at Torrey was enough for a runner up spot whilst 5 under par was enough to get him inside the top 10 at Bay Hill. Early on last season he was second behind Max Homa at Potomac, another venue that was a severe test from tee to green ad he followed that up shortly after with a 7th placed finish at the US Open finishing on 1 under par.

It is easy to forget last season at Sawgrass where he finished 5th he was probably the best performer in the field landing on the wrong side of the draw and still managing difficult conditions to make a title charge on that Sunday. Bradley may indeed prove to be one to watch in the coming months if we get a severe major test but PGA Tour fields should be wary of this dog when arriving at the tougher venues.

He was unlucky to bump into Burns here two years ago finishing runner up and I suspect he will be aiming for one better this week.

2pts each-way K.Bradley  25/1  (1/5 8) William HIll

Aaron Rai at 66/1 (Eight Places)

Aaron Rai at an opening show of 66/1 looks generous enough given his effort last week and that this is still a home game for him. He won around a track in Hong Kong that requires a similar type of game and he certainly would fit in with previous winners here like Donald, Furyk, Senden and Streelman.

Rai has the ball striking to compete at a much higher level than many think and it is only a matter of marrying that with the putter. The putter remains a big issue though. He had failed to gain on the field in that department in seven starts so far this year and although it was a tiny gain at Sawgrass last week we can take that as a fair positive. He ranked 18th from tee to green last week and I was taken by his interview after the hole in one on 17.

He mentioned he was more proud of the birdie on 18 afterwards than the hole in one itself. That shows someone very grounded in his game and intelligent into the bargain. He won the Scottish Open in very windy conditions a few years ago and the wind forecast this week should play right into his hands.

Two previous good putting efforts on Bermuda at Southwind is a plus and if he manages one good week with the putter around a track like this he certainly has the talent to burst through the door.

1.25pts each-way A.Rai  66/1  (1/5 8) Bet365