Niall Lyons shares his golf betting tips and preview for the WGC Match Play.
WGC Match Play - Winner
The future of this Match Play event looks bleak with it being removed from the 2024 schedule. Since 2016 Austin Country Club in Texas has held this event and it must be said it has been a huge success ever since. Half the battle in hosting a match-play event is to get the right venue for excitement and Austin provides it in droves. To a driveable par 4 over water, to a short par 3 and 4 to finish this event has produced some great moments.
When choosing who to bet this week it is important to move with caution as anything is possible here. The course has seen the swashbuckling games of Day, Scheffler and Dustin Johnson win, whilst the differing game of Kisner has won and twice finished runner up.
Horschel's win and Kuchar's near misses here have also provided a backdrop that big hitting certainly isn't required here. An absence of strokes gained stats isn't a big issue here as what you would glean from them is minimal in match play.
Certainly, a good wedge game is required around this short layout and of course, those who have shown an ability to hole putts in pressure situations are worth considering. Previous match play form looks like a pre-requisite also as it is difficult to make a case for anyone who doesn't have a relatively strong background in that department.
Maverick McNealy at 100/1 (Eight Places)
I'll tackle this by placing a bet in each quarter; the first is difficult to figure out. Scheffler certainly hasn't got a great draw facing the ultra-talented Tom Kim and Alex Noren who have made it to the final eight and final four here at Austin. The Swede has an impressive matchplay record and will be no pushover for the world number one. Tom Kim already has a win in the desert whilst Davis Riley is in decent form following a top 10 at Bay Hill and a top 20 last week at Copperhead.
That certainly looks like a group to steer clear from, as does the group including Morikawa and Day. I had high hopes for Day in this event but he hasn't got the best of draws. Morikawa hasn't played well here but remains dangerous in any match play game. Victor Perez has a tendency to hole crucial putts when it matters and is in good form heading to Texas.
Svensson will be up against these three no doubt about it, but any of the other three wouldn't look out of place in the next round. Kuchar and Kirk have the ability to upset Hovland, but there is little separating the two so it leaves me with Group 16 and I'm happy to take a chance on Maverick McNealy.
The Californian started the year off well with a top 10 at Waialae but has since had to withdraw twice because of a shoulder injury. Two weeks in Florida have him back on track though finishing 60th at Sawgrass then 36th at the Valspar last week. He is in a really tough section but Fleetwood was found wanting last weekend once again with a few missed shots under pressure whilst Sungjae Im has only won three from eight matches here.
McNealy has the ability to putt his way to glory here, just like Kisner and Horschel have done before. He was unbeaten here in three matches last year when defeating Niemann by an eyewatering eight & six. He lost out in a playoff to Kevin Na to progress to the second round. This venue should suit McNealy and triple-figure prices about someone unbeaten in three games here looks worth chancing.
0.75pt each-way M.McNealy 100/1 (1/5 8) Paddypower
Patrick Cantlay at 22/1 (Four Places)
On the same side of the draw but next bracket it is difficult to get away from Cantlay's chances. KH Lee is an interesting option in the same group at triple figures having shot the round of the day on Sunday at the Valspar. Nick Taylor is in decent form while Brian Harman's good golf has fallen off a cliff somewhat. Cantlay has a decent record here winning and should have enough in the locker to dispatch his opponents here.
The other groups in the bracket are weak enough and I expect Cantlay to make a bold fist of winning this bracket altogether. Spieth sits around the same odd, which doesn't add up, but, other than him, Homa, and Burns this remains one of the easiest brackets to get out of. Couple that with Cantlay landing one of the easiest groups and I'd make a strong case that Cantlay should be the second favourite in this event.
2pts each-way P.Cantlay 22/1 (1/4 4) Skybet
Will Zalatoris at 35/1 (Four Places)
Jon Rahm hasn't drawn the best group with former winner Horschel a stern match player and a back-in-form Rickie Fowler ready to upset the odds. Mitchell has shown plenty of promise lately also and truth be told Rahm could have landed a much nicer draw.
Cameron Young may have it simple enough in his group but he'll face tough opposition in the shape of Corey Conners. Finau has a massive chance to get into the next round-up against Bezuidenhout and a couple of debutants but my preference in this bracket is for Will Zalatoris.
Zalatoris is a Texas resident and has plenty of experience of playing in the wind that often appears here. In Putnam, Fox, and English he has a relatively kind draw and he has the perfect balance of attack and defence to tame this Austin course. He got to the quarter-finals last year where he went down to eventual runner-up Kevin Kisner.
We have seen over the last few years that when the pressure is ramped up Zalatoris finds a lot with his putter. Who can forget the 10-footer he holed to get into a playoff with Thomas in the PGA. This gutsy competitor will be a force in match play for years to come and a straightforward group gives him a fair chance to get into the latter stages.
1pt each-way W.Zalatoris 35/1 (1/4 4) General
Tyrrell Hatton at 25/1 (Four Places)
In the final section, both Hatton and McIlroy have good draws and my preference is for the Englishman who has gotten out of his group three of the last four years here at Austin. Couple that with 4th at Bay Hill and runner-up to Scheffler at Sawgrass and we have someone at the top of his game.
He has a great record at the Dunhill Links which is a long drawn-out affair over four days so fatigue isn't much of an issue for Hatton. In Griffin, Henley, and Herbert he has nothing to fear but a grudge match with McIlroy may await in round two.
Hatton has the better record here though and question marks surround whether McIlroy will be motivated to go the distance here over seven matches with Augusta only a few weeks away. Schauffele gets a good draw also whilst the bottom group in the section looks really up for grabs between Fitzpatrick, Theegala and Min Woo Lee. This is a tough section should the McIlroy, Hatton and Schauffele groups go to plan, but Hatton is playing the better stuff of them all right now and will be tough to beat.
1.5pts each-way T.Hatton 25/1 (1/4 4) Skybet, BetVictor, Coral
