Niall Lyons shares his golf betting tips and preview for the Valero Texas Open.
Valero Texas Open
With the addition of the designated events in the schedule this year most of the market leaders for the Masters have played much more than what they usually would since January and this results in a much weaker affair than usual the week before the Masters.
Down the years we have had plenty of the best teeing it up here in preparation for Augusta but it's no surprise that most skip this event with a little rest and some rounds in Georgia instead of slogging it out here over four days. Desert form translates quite well here and with plenty of danger from the tee a solid ball striking game is necessary to compete.
Hideki Matsuyama at 25/1 (Eight Places)
Desert form correlates quite regularly with this event and one of those with form coming out his ears at Scottsdale is Hideki Matsuyama. The former Masters winner arrives here off the back of his best finish of the season landing a top five at Sawgrass.
His ball striking was superb after a first round of 74 and considering Scheffler blitzed the field winning by five shots, it's important to note he only edged out Hideki by two shots over the space of the final three rounds.
Matsuyama currently sits at 65.0 on the exchanges for the Masters next week, the exact same price as this week's favourite Tyrrell Hatton. Hatton is half the price of the Japanese star this week in Texas and it doesn't quite add up.
2pts each-way H.Matsuyama 25/1 (1/5 8) Bet365 Each Way Extra
Ryan Palmer at 125/1 (Eight Places)
Texans have a great record in their own state and a few with ties to the region look worthy of support at nice odds. Ryan Palmer is one of them who escapes the bookmakers' attention as he is yet to land a top 30 this season and arrives here having missed three of his last five cuts.
He has a handful of top six finishes here throughout his career and certainly appears to be playing better than what his recent record suggests. Round 1 at Sawgrass he ranked 10th on approach and 15th off the tee. That figure dropped significantly in round 2 but in the event previous at Bay Hill he ranked 9th on approach and 24th off the tee across the four rounds.
Solid ball striking has been a theme of his season thus far and he has to be respected back in his home state and on a course that rewards that type of ball striking. It has been a long time since his last victory but plenty of the game's best are missing this week and he must fancy his chances of playing well once again at the Oaks course.
1pt each-way R.Palmer 125/1 (1/5 8) Bet365 Each Way Extra
Austin Smotherman at 160/1 (Eight Places)
Austin Smotherman played college golf in Texas and has since set up home here and must be considered having rounded back into some sort of form lately. 35th at Sawgrass was a fine effort where he ranked 25th from tee to green for the week in one of the deepest fields of the year.
A few weeks previous he missed the cut at Riviera but his ball striking was solid once again with his putter being the club that troubles him the most. That turned around last time out at Copperhead where he produced his best putting week in over a year. At the halfway stage of a Korn Ferry event held here back in 2020 Smotherman led by two shots only to finish 4th.
With some positive signs lately he could be one of the Texas college boys to shine and earn his dream spot at Augusta next week. Taylor Pendrith who finished above him in that KFT event may well be worth considering back at this course but he was ultimately disappointing having been 3rd after round 1 at Sawgrass.
1pt each-way A.Smotherman 160/1 (1/5 8) Bet365 Each Way Extra
Francesco Molinari at 110/1 (Eight Places)
Francesco Molinari has shown some decent signs of late and looks worthy of support at anything around 100/1. The Italian is one of only a couple of major winners in the field and has the class to take down a slightly weaker affair than usual here in Texas. Molinari has shown plenty of times his ability to cope in the wind whilst three top 10s in the Desert in California further boosts his profile this week.
28th off the tee and 19th on approach at Bayhill a few weeks ago was a sign that his long game may be returning back to somewhere near his best whilst 15th on approach at Sawgrass was more evidence that he shouldn't be too far away.
He was just outside the top 20 heading into the final day there where a couple of double bogeys on the front nine on Sunday made him tumble down the leaderboard. Molinari certainly looks on the mend though and could make it two European winners on the trot on the PGA Tour.
1pt each-way F.Molinari 110/1 (1/5 8) Bet365 Each Way Extra
Nick Taylor at 66/1 (Eight Places)
Kelly Kraft shot three 68s last week in Punta Cana and back in his home state is an interesting runner at 500/1. His iron play has been poor all season and although we don't have the stats from last week you'd assume it was in a much better place. Overall his record doesn't improve for being back home though and we'll leave him off the staking plan for that reason alone.
Instead I'll opt for Canadian Nick Taylor who has been really impressive over the past couple of months. He kicked off the year in fine style with a 7th placed finish at Waialae, another performance in a list of solid efforts by the coast which includes a win at Pebble Beach.
He put up a spirited fight against Scheffler in Arizona when finishing runner up at the Phoenix Open and fired in another good ball striking effort at the Valspar. He beat KH Lee last week and came from a long way down to give Cantlay a scare going down the last where he had to hole a 12 footer to avoid the tie.
This is probably his most impressive streak on tour without winning and a week where wind could play its part could be the difference between being a nearly man this year and getting over the line. Anything above the 50/1 mark looks very fair.
1pt each-way N.Taylor 66/1 (1/5 8) Bet365 Each Way Extra
Jimmy Walker at 500/1 (Eight Places)
Jimmy Walker is worth a second glance at 500/1. He finished 13th at Torrey Pines in January but caution was urged as he did most of his work around and on the greens that week. There have been signs of life in the long game recently though ranking 30th in the field on approach at the Honda when finishing just inside the top 50.
The long game behaved reasonably at Copperhead also where he was let down by a poor putter. Nevertheless, at a venue on which he has won before we could see a little better than what we have recently.
0.5pt each-way J.Walker 500/1 (1/5 8) Skybet, PaddyPower, Betfair Sportsbook, Bet365 Each Way Extra
