Niall Lyons shares his golf betting tips for the RBC Heritage, and backs Justin Thomas to bounce back from his poor Masters showing.
RBC Heritage
The Heritage takes centre stage this week and it is always welcome from a punting perspective. The average drive here measures between 260-270 yards so length isn't any advantage at all around Harbour Town. Instead with the small greens scrambling becomes the most important aspect. Four of the top six in scrambling in the 2020 renewal finished inside the Top 10 overall.
The top three in scrambling in 2019 all finished inside the top six on Sunday. Wesley Bryan topped the scrambling stat here in 2017 when winning the event and Grace was 3rd in 2016 having finished 1st in scrambling. Spieth, Simpson, Kuchar, Grace, Furyk and McDowell winning here in recent years gives us the perfect profile of what's needed to succeed here.
The long hitting sluggers in the game that take their place at the front of the market are certainly vulnerable this week with their game not translating to the course, and question marks will no doubt surround their motivation after a questionable staging of an elevated event the week after the Masters.
Justin Thomas at 28/1 (Eight Places)
Justin Thomas once again didn't put his best foot forward at Augusta and any small chance he had of getting a run through the field like Mickelson was taken away from him by the weather as he came back Saturday morning to finish off round two in some of the worst conditions we've ever seen at Augusta.
He couldn't hang on to the cut score towards the end of his second round and ultimately he had put himself in that position with a poor start to his second 18.
It has resulted 28/1 being priced, a fair bit bigger than what he was last week. There is no doubt Harbour Town isn't the venue you'd ideally choose for someone like Thomas but in four appeareances here he has 8th and 11th placed finishes and made all four weekends.
That's enough to suggest Thomas has coped reasonably well here down the years and his result last week certainly appears worse on paper than what it was as he certainly had the worst of the draw.
His length off the tee has rarely been compromised but he has appeared more accurate than usual in recent week from the tee which should bode well for a trip around here. Overall, it's difficult to turn down the 28/1 having got involved at 20/1 last week.
2pts each-way J.Thomas 28/1 (1/5 8) Sky Bet, William Hill
Taylor Montgomery at 100/1 (Eight Places)
I'm surprised bookmakers have taken the risk of chalking up the dangerous Taylor Montgomery at triple figures and I'll always be tempted by him at these odds with his potent short game. He was outside the Top 50 at crunch time for the Masters but not by far and he'll see last week's action and definitely want a part of it next year.
His form recently has been solid finishing 22nd in Texas two weeks ago despite a sub standard ball striking game. That has often been the story of his season but around Harbour Town with the smaller greens scrambling becomes key and there are little better equipped in the game to cope with that. He will be up against it with his long game which is far from consistent, but that's the reason we see triple figures.
I believe he is better than that and one average week in the ball striking department could result in a career changing moment.
1pt each-way T.Montgomery 100/1 (1/5 8) PaddyPower
Keegan Bradley at 80/1 (Eight Places)
Keegan Bradley continued his run of good form with a Top 25 at Augusta and he looks a shade overpriced to continue an impressive season. His win at Narashino in October was a sign of what he can do around a tight driving course and a similar effort here with his elite ball striking can not be ruled out.
He was a shade unlucky to be pipped by a rampant Max Homa at Torrey a few months ago and there's no doubt the tougher, longer golf courses are really up his street. He displayed the same traits at Potomac when being beaten by Homa once again. His ball striking has been consistent throughout his career but the difference this season has been his putting.
This has been his best season to date since before the anchoring ban and it's no surprise he's had the result he has had with his putter in fine form. He has only played here twice with his best finish being tied 44th but that spike in putting this season could mean another title tilt on one of the tours more trickier layouts.
1pt each-way K.Bradley 80/1 (1/5 8) Bet365 Extra Each Way, Skybet
Si Woo Kim at 80/1 (Eight Places)
Si Woo Kim, like Bradley has already gotten off the mark this season and at 80/1 looks the much better option than many around him. With just one missed cut in the past ten months Kim has become one of the more reliable sorts on tour and a return to a venue on which he was beaten in a playoff back in 2018 could be welcome after a tough week at Augusta.
Kim doesn't belt the ball as far as the majority in the game but despite his lack on length from the tee he finished 29th last week to record his 6th made cut on the trot at the Masters. Si Woo showed us what he could do in January on a coastal course by winning the Sony at Waialae and three rounds of level par at Augusta from Friday to Sunday in tough conditions looks a much better effort for Kim on paper than it would do for someone with a more powerful game.
Already a winner this season and returning to a favourable track the 80/1 on offer looks too good to turn down.
1pt each-way Si Woo Kim 80/1 (1/5 8) Skybet
Maverick McNealy at 125/1 (Eight Places)
Maverick McNealy hasn't been setting the world on fire this year but a return to a coastal layout should suit the Californian and I'm happy to get involved at triple figure prices. Previous to the Match Play we last saw McNealy at the Valspar where he finished a respectable 36th having endured another poor week with his approach play.
That has been the story of the year so far and there is no doubt he will need an improvement in that department to make the frame here. There is reason to suggest he will improve for a return to Harbour Town, a venue on which he has made three from three cuts and finished 4th two years ago. He has went well at his beloved Pebble Beach before then 16th at the Scottish Open last Summer was another sign of what he can do ojn that type of test.
His best results this season have again come by the coast with top 10s at Mayakoba and Waialae. He is another with a potent short game who could separate himself from the field when he manages a good week with the irons.
1pt each-way M.McNealy 125/1 (1/5 8) William Hill
