Niall Lyons shares his golf betting tips and preview for the ISPS Handa Championship.
ISPS Handa Championship
The Japan and DP World Tours team up for the first ever time this week at the Ishioka Golf Course in Ibaraki. Last year plans on this co sanctioned event had to be shelved due to the pandemic restrictions but nothing gets in the way in 2023 as a new partnership gets underway.
The event did take place last year under the JPGT stewardship with Yuta Katsuragawa claiming his breakthrough win on a total of 24 under par. The Nicklaus designed course here is tree lined but looks to have plenty of room off the tee for those longer hitters with a little less accuracy. From what we've seen here in various events over the years it'll take a really low score to compete.
As ever on Nicklaus designed golf courses approach play will rank high up the list of statistics when it comes to narrowing down a potential winner here.
Lucas Herbert at 22/1 (Six Places)
It's an interesting heat towards the top of the market this week and simply eyeballing it doesn't look quite right to me. Rasmus is a special player for sure but it is edging towards two years since he last won, primarily playing in DPWT events, with plenty being average fields.
Contrast that to Lucas Herbert who despite struggling this year somewhat boasts a solid record across many PGA Tour events including two top 15 finishes in the 2022 majors. Herbert has wins in Ireland, Dubai and Bermuda and this week looks to add Japan to that list.
I believe the Australian's game is a shade more versatile than the jolly and if I had a gun to my head I'd say his ceiling is slightly higher also as to what he could achieve in the game. He went well last time out in the Match Play, a format in which he looks very comfortable winning all three matches before being dispatched by McIlroy having taken him down the final hole at 1 down.
He won't have liked being absent at the Masters a few weeks ago and sitting 59th in the rankings it'll be his goal to get himself inside that top 50 by the end of the year. His hot putter should be ideal to shoot the low scores here needed and he should see this as a fair chance to land another victory.
2pts each-way L.Herbert 22/1 (1/5 6) WilliamHill, Unibet
Chan Kim at 50/1 (Six Places)
Any bookmakers chalking up bigger than 50/1 about Chan Kim are taking a big risk now he lands back in Japan. His last five efforts on the Korn Ferry Tour read 31-13-16-15-21. Keeping pace in that company is impressive and hopefully suggests he has somewhat overcome his putting problems. He ranks just below average on that tour on the greens this season which suggests he could cope in a field of this quality.
His most recent results in Japan read 2-WIN-44-6-2-6-6-19. His record in Japan is incredible winning almost 10% of his starts there. He probably suits a longer golf course with his length off the tee but we have to assume he has the measure of it with a runner up finish at this venue in the Heiwa PGM Championship in October and an 8th placed finish back in 2016.
Chan Kim is one of those graced with a gorgeous swing and has more than enough quality to make the grade eventually on the PGA Tour so expectations here must be high. Early prices of 66/1 have gone quickly but anything of 50/1 or above is worthy of investment.
1.5pts each-way C.Kim 50/1 (1/5 6) Unibet, Bet UK
Jorge Campillo at 45/1 (Eight Places)
Jorge Campillo was a winner last time out in Kenya and I see little reason for him drifting to 40/1 and bigger from a winning price of 35/1 on his last start. MacIntyre finished 7th in Kenya when going off a 22/1 shot whilst we see a slightly shortened 18-20/1 for him this week. The Spaniard trumped Bobby in Kenya and goes from 35/1 to 45/1.
That doesn't quite add up and there is every reason to suggest Campillo will continue on a run of fine form that previously saw him finish 4th in India the start before his victory. He was 16th on approach in India then 5th in the same department in Kenya.
His irons are undoubtedly the weakest part of his game and should he continue to fire with these clubs he can easily continue this run. Historically he also improves for the break so he may be one to rely upon with that recent form and a month off.
1.25pts each-way J.Campillo 45/1 (1/5 8) Bet365 Each Way Extra
Alexander Bjork at 33/1 (Eight Places)
Alexander Bjork lacks length off the tee to repeatedly contend in DPWT events but only one missed cut in his last 12 events is evidence that his long game is more than holding up. His approach play this season has been tremendous, comfortably his best in a good few years whilst his usually potent short game is playing ball also.
He put plenty of the 'bombing' narrative to bed at Ras when he finished runner up to Daniel Gavins who managed to limp over the line following a calamity of a 72nd hole. A relatively short track should suit him here whilst the improved approach play of late should give him every chance to contend on a course where scores of 20 under par or better may be needed to win and therefore require a behaving putter.
For someone of his talent he shouldn't have needed to wait almost five years for his next win but the fact that his last came in China can only further boost his profile for this event.
1.25pts each-way A.Bjork 33/1 (1/5 8) Bet365 Each Way Extra
At triple figures Aaron Cockerill looks one to be on the right side of after a decent couple of results following the birth of his first child. He shook off that rust in Kenya following a month off with a missed cut before finishing 53rd and 13th in the two South African events. A closing 65 in Johannesburg was only beaten by two others that Sunday, one being the impressive victor Nick Bachem.
Cockerill has secured a new sponsorship deal with a Canadian Wealth management company debuting on his bag this week which hopefully adds to his comfort levels now on tour and with the perspective of a new baby in tow could be a dangerous opponent should he manage to continue where he left off in South Africa.
1pt each-way A.Cockerill 175/1 (1/5 8) Bet365 Each Way Extra
