Niall Lyons shares his golf betting tips and preview for the Italian Open.
Italian Open
Marco Simeone in Rome is host for the third year in a row and later this year will be the scene of a fascinating Ryder Cup edition that will no doubt see a handful of European debutants. Robert MacIntyre put his marker down here last year by winning but has since been disappointing and has by no means secured his role in the team later in the year.
There is every chance that someone on the fringes of the team in the mould of the Scot puts their best foot forward here once again as we all know what it means for these golfers to compete in the Ryder Cup.
It's a huge incentive to go well and I'd be surprised should a few of those aspiring to land a spot in Team Europe not be towards the very top of the leaderboard come Sunday. Over the last couple of years, tee to green game has reigned supreme here and not necessarily any one part in particular stands out. Driving and approach play are the most key elements of that and those who hit it long and straight will have every chance to score in what looks like very favourable conditions throughout the week.
Victor Perez at 22/1 (Eight Places)
The prize fund increases by 50%+ on the DPWT this week and that is sure to ramp up the pressure on some of the lesser names should they figure on the leaderboard during the weekend.
This was fought out between MacIntyre and Fitzpatrick in a playoff last year and although nobody quite of the calibre of Fitzpatrick makes an appearance this week I fully expect this event to go to one of the more likelier names towards the top of the market. Similar to last week it is difficult to separate them and ultimately MacIntyre was a shade disappointing once again despite displaying a spectacular array of skills around the greens over the weekend.
A return to a memorable venue for him will surely suit and it'd be no surprise should he manage to improve for that. We saw a couple of weeks ago how dangerous players are coming off the PGA Tour with Herbert winning in Japan and someone who comes off a few efforts stateside and who has nothing to prove on this tour is Victor Perez, and he looks the pick of the bunch towards the top of the market. The Frenchman has two wins from his last 15 appearances on the DPWT and looks one who could easily go well once again having finished 3rd, one shot out of the playoff place here at Marco Simone last year.
Alongside Thomas Detry they were far from disgraced when finishing 13th a couple of weeks ago at the Zurich Classic. 45th at the Valspar was another fair effort for someone who wouldn't be totally suited by Copperhead. Last we saw him on this tour he was finishing 13th in Ras Al Khaimah having been out with the washing after round one here. Previous to that his win at Yas Links in Abu Dhabi looks like the perfect event to look to for some correlating form given the similarities between the two courses.
There he beat the in-form Min Woo Lee by a stroke and it must be said he has less to beat on this occasion. It's difficult to see this being won by a journeyman professional so to speak and someone who has proven himself at elite level on numerous occasions looks the one to beat and for my money should be tournament favourite.
Adrian Meronk at 20/1 (Seven Places)
I'll look to add another of the classy types capable of winning this and having shaped well last week I'm happy to back Adrian Meronk for the second week in a row. After a slow start last week the Polish star improved to 5th place heading into the final round and I was hopeful of him overturning the two-shot deficit to the leader.
It wasn't to be but it was a firm return to action following a three-week break after missing the cut at the Masters. I'd be surprised should the long game not be of extreme importance come the end of the week here and there aren't many better equipped to make gains in that department than Meronk, especially from the tee.
His short stint stateside can be viewed as fair and the experience gained there in stellar fields will no doubt give him an even higher platform to improve upon. Meronk remains odds against to make the side later on in the year but he is one I expect to take a step forward and whilst either or both of the Hojgaard's make the headlines in the lead in to the match I wouldn't be surprised should Meronk take things into his own hands and perform well enough to make it impossible not to pick him if he hasn't automatically qualified. For now he looks more than capable of landing a blow here and may strip fitter for his recent outing in Korea.
Guido Migliozzi at 45/1 (Seven Places)
MacIntyre and the Hojgaard brothers all have their claims here and together with my two picks above look a class above the rest. Smith may enter that bracket and is certainly worthy of consideration but I'd be surprised should one of the top five in the market not trade favourite at some stage over Saturday and Sunday. This course looks set up for these five and it looks silly to have any other staking plan that doesn't include a couple of these.
I was happy to take Herbert a few weeks ago despite the travel as he only had two of these top five to beat, Nicolai looks a shade riskier after the travel with two others thrown into the 'favourite' mix and the journey from Mexico is just about enough to put me off, especially with the price dwindling as I type.
Guido Migliozzi had a promising week a few weeks ago finishing inside the top 25 and was an interesting sleeper in Singapore last week. After a lacklustre few days he scythed through the field with a final round of 63 for a share of 14th place. That round coupled with his 3rd round of 64 in Japan is quite eye-catching and now he arrives back in his home country and would be the type of character who you could see winning his home Championship during his career.
I wouldn't say he has the perfect game for around here but you don't shoot a 63 and 64 in the past two weeks without being too far away from striking your irons pure and consistent. We saw what Migliozzi was capable of when beating a similar field in Paris last year and a win here would certainly put him in the conversation for a place in the Ryder Cup squad.
Andy Sullivan at 80/1 (Eight Places)
One I'm happy to chance at triple figures potentially showing his class here is Andy Sullivan. Like Migliozzi, Sullivan has shot a couple of rounds in the past couple of weeks to warrant inclusion in the staking plan. A first round of 63 led the way after his round in Japan whilst another fast start of 67 in Singapore had him sitting pretty after day one once again.
Unfortunately, a final round of 77 in Japan and a second round of 75 last week put pay to any chances he had whilst the mistakes still edge into his game. Nevertheless, these are encouraging signs for Sullivan who has six top-25 finishes in his last 12 DPWT starts.
