Niall Lyons shares his golf betting tips and preview for the Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow.
Wells Fargo Championship Winner
After a hugely successful trip to Avenel last year the Wells Fargo returns to Quail Hollow, the scene of all but two renewals of this Championship dating back to 2003. Rory McIlroy has managed three victories here, one being his first on the PGA tour when he came through the field from making the cut on the number to pip Phil Mickelson.
Whilst Jason Day was another favourable winner here around the 20/1 mark there have been a number of surprises most notably James Hahn and Derek Ernst getting over the line at whopping 500/1 prices. It remains a venue where a solid tee to green is necessary to compete.
All the top five back in 2021 ranked inside the top 10 in T2G for the week, whilst five of the seven who made up the top five the year previous ranked inside the top 10 in the same statistic. Around the green is the least important aspect of that equation and with most approaches coming in from 175-225 yards you have to look to golfers strong in that area with their irons.
Jordan Spieth at 20/1 (Eight Places)
Many of the elevated events have been predictably dominated by the best in the world and despite some shocks here down the years it is difficult to see a different outcome once again on a course that usually suits the major hitters. This year with a stronger field than ever it'll be that much tougher for those outside the top 20 in the game. My pick of the bunch towards the top is Jordan Spieth who has had his fair share of hard luck stories this year.
What has been unwavering is his relentless presence at the top of the leaderboards all year. 6th at Scottsdale, 4th at Bayhill, 3rd at Copperhead, 4th at Augusta and runner up at Harbour Town is some run of form without winning and I think we can safely say the Spieth we know and love is well and truly back.
Matt Fitzpatrick thwarted his quest for back-to-back victories at Harbour Town but unlike the Arnold Palmer and the Valspar Spieth wasn't found wanting at the death. Having doggedly holed a six footer to get into the playoff he hit a putt on the first sudden death hole that looked destined to land an overdue victory. It somehow lipped out and the rest is history but it was encouraging that he kept finding that week and the same mistakes weren't present down the back nine that we had seen recently.
Another major victory doesn't look too far away but he could do with getting over the line in one of these events and his elite approach play should give him ample opportunity to compete once again. He returns to the scene of the Presidents Cup victory last September where he dominated winning all five of his matches.
2.5pts each-way J.Spieth 20/1 1/5 8 (Bet36 each way extra)
Justin Thomas at 22/1
I was happy to take the 28/1 about Thomas a few weeks ago at the Heritage simply because of the weakened field and although we have a shorter price now in a much stronger affair a trip back into the winners enclosure doesn't look far away. I did mention a few weeks ago Harbour Town wouldn't be the ideal fit but more so the price was the tempting aspect.
Quail Hollow suits much better and having been the scene of his first major triumph may just give him the spark needed. The one aspect I was slightly worried about at Harbour Town was ball striking around the fiddly course but he passed that test with flying colours ranking 27th off the tee and 19th on approach. Once again it was his putting that let him down across the week finishing 53rd in that department.
His final round of 5 under par was a sign things may be turning though, ranking 11th on the greens that day and 7th from tee to green. That is possibly a sign that his putting woes are on the turn and he may finally be able to capitalise on some solid ball striking stats that have been fairly consistent over the past couple of months.
2.5pts each-way J.Thomas 22/1 1/5 (Skybet)
Wyndham Clark at 66/1 (12 Places)
Wyndham Clark was a 20/1 shot last week in Mexico and even shorter a few weeks before in Punta Cana and on both occasions I mentioned it is probably better to wait and try to land him at a bigger price as he goes in search of a maiden victory. This has been the scene of a couple of big named players' first victory on tour and Clark can add his name to that list this week.
A couple of poor driving days last week put pay to his chances and he eventually finished 24th but there is more of a major element to this track and his game looks more suited to the tougher test. You have to go back to October for his last missed cut as he continues his relentless progression on gaining strokes on the field in every event since the Shriners.
Three top 6 finishes in his last five events is a sign that he is very close to breaking his duck and I firmly believe backing him in these heats around the 66/1 will prove much more fruitful over time than taking the 20s and less in weaker events. Clark undoubtedly has the talent to take down one of these elevated events and it'd be a surprise should he not continue on his merry way and fire in another solid effort this week in Charlotte.
1pt each-way W.Clark 66/1 1/6 12 (Coral)
Davis Riley at 100/1 (Eight Places)
Finally I'll take a swipe at Davis Riley who I believe will suit the tougher test coming off the back of a birdie fest in New Orleans. I'm an awful man when it comes to that Zurich event, I refuse to preview it, refuse to bet it and don't put an awful lot of importance to it. Nevertheless he landed his 'maiden' victory alongside Nick Hardy a couple of weeks ago and that can only help accelerate his success.
Riley has been on my radar ever since a hugely impressive effort at the PGA at Southern Hills last year where he finished 13th, five shots shy of Justin Thomas and Will Zalatoris' target. He backed that up with 31st at the Country Club for the US Open and this was further evidence that he suits the tougher test.
4th at Colonial, 2nd at Copperhead and 13th at Muirfield all last year coupled with 8th at Bayhill this year further backs that up and I believe Riley has the talent to further improve upon that victory at the Zurich.
A trip around a tough Quail Hollow should suit and his approach play from 175+ is certainly more than good enough to compete with some of the tournament favourites this week.
1pt each-way D.Riley 100/1 1/5 8 (WilliamHill)
