PGA Championship 2023 Tips: Niall Lyons Preview, Odds & Tee Times

Dufner's win here in 2013 was a victory for the plodders with Furyk, Stenson, Toms and Zach Johnson in behind. Tiger Woods had been around 16 years at that stage and it is incredible to think how distance in the game has even changed since 2013.

The golf course has changed, it has been lengthened, trees taken away and now plays close to 7400 yards being a par 70. That will be slog for any Dufners or Furyks nowadays and even the concept of heavy rough has changed since 10 years ago.

What was normally considered a hazard in these types of tests is now an advantage to the longer hitters as they've been able to bomb and gauge their way to wins, none more so evident than when Byrson Dechambeau collected his US Open winners medal in this state at Winged Foot a few years ago.

These Championship golf courses are night and day compared to how they used to be tamed and it is difficult to see a player win this whose main strength is accuracy from the tee. Nevertheless, despite a rennovation here in many aspects, Donald Ross designs always require a degree of strategy and maybe we'll see that meander its way into the golf this week, but at this stage it's difficult to see how a Jason Dufner can win here this time.

The rough does look dense and thick from the fairways and worryingly close to the greens also so wayward approaches may be heavily punished, especially with colder weather than usual with a May staging on the East Coast.

The par fives are long and on the face of it Oak Hill doesn't look the type of course where bombers will separate themselves from the field on these holes. Fairway bunkers in particular will provide a big challenge and where standard pga tour setups allow opportunities from the bunkers these look particularly penal in Rochester.

High lips and aggressive edging will present a very tough challenge and bunkers around the greens won't be easy to escape from either. Overall though bomb and gauge tactics may be a little naive with the tough bunkering and hitting fairways will surely be a little more advtanageous than some recent renewals of both this and the US Open.

Tony Finau at 25/1 (Eight Places)

Tony Finau was all the rage with punters at Augusta but following on from the last few weeks this looks like a much better chance for him to break his major duck. The gentle giant has won four of his last 19 strokeplay events so on the face of it the 25/1 is certainly interesting.

Scratch beneath the surface and we have an even bigger case for Finau winning his first major here. In July of last year he landed a win on a Donald Ross layout in Detroit when winning the Rocket Mortgage at a whopping 26 under par, five shots clear of second place. The previous week at the 3M Open he had won by three shots. In Houston he won by four then most recently in Mexico he won by three. It's that win at Vidanta that should propel him towards a victory in one of the big four.

Jon Rahm was two weeks out from winning the Masters and Finau had a two shot lead from the world number one heading into the final day. The defending champion at Vidanta was expected to give Finau a real scare that Sunday but he birdied the first to go three clear and Rahm never got within three shots again until they headed off to sign their scorecards after the 72nd hole.

To bat away the Spaniard with minimal fuss was a sign of just how far Finau has come, he hasn't just shed the 'nearly man' tag, he has elevated himself into the bracket of the best handful of golfers on the planet. There have been too many spectacular performances to ignore over the last 12 months, similar to Rahm and Scheffler in the manner of his wins and with his length and precision from the tee a big asset this week he looks primed to contend.

He also ranks inside the top 20 in scrambling from the bunker so the trouble around the greens shouldn't be a huge issue. Couple that with being first on tour in SG Approach this season and we have the perfect combination for Big T to land the big M.

3pts each-way T.Finau  25/1  1/5 8 (Skybet, 888Sport)

Xander Schauffele at 22/1 (Eight Places)

Xander Schauffele's latest runner up at Quail Hollow received a mix bag of reviews as it was another opportunity spurned by one of the most consistent sorts in the game. 10th at the Masters has been followed up by 4th at Harbour Town, 4th in the team event in New Orleans then 2nd to Clark in Charlotte. There is no doubt Schauffele has spurned a few chances to win down the years but he has still won plenty, with the most recent two coming last Summer at the Scottish Open and Travelers Championship.

Eight top five finishes have followed since but I can't have a negative by his name because he doesn't have more wins. Finau has four wins in the past twelve months to Schauffele's two but only one other top five finish in that time frame, whilst Schauffele has managed eight. I always had Schauffele in mind for the more nuanced tests of US Major Championship golf. It's the reason I played him at triple figures at a more strategic Open venue where accuracy is demanded, Carnoustie.

Truth be told he hasn't gone as close to winning one since but he looks ready to be the next one to break down the door. Long and straight driving will be such an asset here and he ranks highly in both those departments with his long irons from 175+ being exemplary.

This should give him every chance to avoid the fairway bunkers, and minimise the amount of times he'll be in the thick rough beside the greens. Up until a few weeks ago he had been uncharacteristically struggling from the tee, but he looks to have sorted that out and a solid effort with that club at Quail Hollow is the perfect preparation.

Six top fives, three top 10s and a further six top 20 finishes make up his 20 majors which means only one quarter of the time has he been outside the top 20. His game lends itself to major golf, and Oak Hill looks like the perfect venue for him to showcase his spectacular all round game and land a well deserved biggee. 

3pts each-way X.Schauffele  22/1  1/5 8 (Skybet, Hills, 888Sport)

Collin Morikawa at 33/1 (Eight Places)

With only two finishes outside the top 20 in his last nine majors Collin Morikawa remains one of the more consistent operators around this price bracket and should this turn into a war of attrition with the long irons there aren't many better in the game capable of separating themslves from the rest in that department.

His chipping abilities will come under pressure at Augusta each and every year he plays there but that hasn't stopped him in the Masters with finishes of 44-18-5-10. Short game will play its part here but nowhere near as much as what it does at Augusta and Morikawa should benefit from that.

The longer the distance of average approach shots the better for Morikawa as he comes into his own with his long irons and accuracy with the driver. The ability to swerve the fairway and greenside bunkers will be a key element to coming out on top here and whilst others certainly have more eye catching form heading to New York, Morikawa retains the ability to blow opposition away when everyone's long game is under the microscope.

This isn't a typical pga tour setup so it gives players like Morikawa more rope to display their strengths and potential to bridge the gap between himself and the two favourites. His irons were in fine form in Charlotte last time out despite missing the cut where a horror show with the putter (always a worry with Collin) was the main reason he didn't make the weekend there.

A missed cut at Scottsdale in February was followed by 6th at Riviera, then a missed cut ay Bayhill was followed by 13th at Sawgrass. I expect Morikawa to bounce back after the missed cut at Quail Hollow and this venue sets up perfectly for him.

2pts each-way C.Morikawa  33/1  1/5 8 (Skybet)

Just what anyone takes out of the LIV performance at the Masters is up for debate, although it is undeniable it was a better week for the players on that tour than what we would have expected. I'd like to talk of Koepka's effort and the fact that in my mind he was a fair lay heading into the final day.

The pressure cooker of a major Sunday in contention is different gravy to any other event, and without recent experience in the bag of that kind of pressure it is difficult to get over the line. Mickelson's and Reed's efforts can be quantified as admirable but without ever being in contention for winning the event. Brooks had his chance, he had a two shot lead heading into the final 18, and failed miserably.

It must be noted that Koepka had developed a habit of letting major championships slip through his fingers. That may be a tad harsh on his efforts, but he certainly had reliquished a shade of that invincibility in these events. The final 18 at Augusta National for me was more a product of not being in the heat of battle with the likes of Rahm recently. Dustin Johnson fell over the line last night in Tulsa and I don't put a huge amount of importance on that performance. 

Oak Hill looks perfect for Jordan Spieth given his ability to be a miracle worker around the greens but a recent missed cut at Quail Hollow and subsequent photos of him arriving at the property this week with his left wrist in a cast suggests it is probably prudent to swerve.

Hideki Matsuyama played well last week without contending at the Byron Nelson but cited fatigue as to why he wasn't performing better and although his long game looks perfect this test he is left off the list for that reason. Tyrrell Hatton has been in tremendous form all year and a previous win at Wentworth looks good on the CV heading to Oak Hill. 3rd at Quail Hollow, 2nd at Sawgrass and 4th at Bayhill shows just how well he is playing in deep fields.

His record in majors remains a little sketchy though and maybe patience in these tests isn't quite his forte so until he challenges for one down the stretch I shall avoid him for now. Hovland looks ready to land one of these events and there is no doubt his short game improves on the biggest stages.

However the final round at Augusta was a major disappointment, as was the final round at St Andrews, so for the moment he is passed over as there could be a trend developing. Gary Woodland continues an impressive season of ball striking with little to write home about, but could he land his second major on his 39th birthday on Sunday? His short game will need to improve if so.

Max Homa is the one I'm most afraid of leaving off the list. When he won at Potomac it was very wet and the fairways were difficult to hit. When fairways are at a premium he comes into his own. It looks a perfect set up for him but despite wins at some of the best non major courses on the rota I can't quite get over the hump of his major form.

There are little excuses for one top 20 finish in 13 major tries since 2019 and although I can see him in the mix this week it's a leap for me to think he goes from really poor form in majors to winning one in a flash. He does have a great temperament, especially for this test, but I can't quite bring myself to bet at the odds given he has flunked this exam on too many occasions whilst in great form.

Sungjae Im at 33/1 (Eight Places)

Sungjae Im looks one to side with despite the fact he'll be making a long journey from Korea to New York at the start of the week. Just what he achieved from the trip to Korea is up for debate but a win is a win and the manner in which he closed it out could be important.

A 40-yard bunker shot to five feet was an impressive shot under pressure in front of a home audience and should bode well for this week. As the week continues I'm convinced bunkers are going to play a huge part in determining the outcome, whether avoiding them or escaping from them becomes part of the arsenal needed to win (you don't see Arsenal and winning in the same sentence much these days!).

Im sits 14th on tour this season scrambling from bunkers but that is only part of it as fairway bunkers will need to be avoided like the plague also. Im is certainly one of the more accurate with the driver ranking 20th on tour in driving accuracy, ahead of Rahm and Scheffler. His iron play will be key to his performance and although he is a wizard with the wedge he can more than cope with the shots from 175+ yards.

This looks a venue upon which Im can showcase his talents and a victory banked at the boisterous Honda Classic should help should he face the cauldron atmosphere in one of the final few groups here on Sunday.

2pts each-way S.Im 33/1  1/5 8 (Bet365)

Harris English at 225/1 (Eight Places)

I'll finish with two outsiders the first being Harris English. English isn't one of the longest hitters on tour but despite that has managed to make five from six cuts at PGA Championships and seven from seven at US Opens. That is extremely consistent and even though the length of this course will be a challenge for him he has coped with longer tracks before.

Two of his last five strokeplay events have resulted in top three finishes at Quail Hollow and Bayhill. Both of those have been stacked fields and he has done that by performing extremely well with his irons. That's a good sign and he has served his apprenticeship in majors also with two top four finishes in US Opens in 2020 and 2021.

He certainly looks like one of the more likely sorts to get into the mix at triple figure prices who can be capable of bringing home the prize. 

1pt each-way H.English  225/1 1/5 8 (Bet365)

Adrian Meronk at 175/1 (10 Places)

Finally I'll have a flyer on Italian Open winner Adrian Meronk. The talented Polish 29-year-old has reached a new level in the past six months and none more so was this evident when winning at the 2023 Ryder Cup venue Marco Simone a few weeks ago. He did that by a hugely impressive display of driving and a great short game. His irons can be a little inconsistent but he could find himself in better positions off the tee than many in this field.

In December he held off Adam Scott and Min Woo Lee to win the Australian Open and a recent missed cut at the Masters is of little worry as debutants have a sketchy record there. This may be way too soon for Meronk but he looks set for a position in Team Europe in September and it'd be no surprise to see him step up and perform well on these types of tests where the driver is highly important.

0.75pt each-way A.Meronk  175/1 1/5 10 (Paddy Power)