Viktor Hovland is the headline selection for Niall Lyons as he shares his golf betting tips for the US Open 2023.
US Open 2023
Viewers in Europe have a task ahead from Thursday onwards as the US Open heads to the dreaded West Coast and 4am finishes for those brave enough to sleep in the spare room and land a couple of hours of kip before the school runs. Drama is almost inevitable though and we are usually treated to some of the best majors in this part of the world.
Los Angeles Country Club is the destination for what looks like a unique challenge for the third major of the year. This isn't your ordinary US Open setup, not quite Chambers Bay, but not a million miles away from it. There is no water to contend with but barrancas meandering their way throughout the layout. Fairways are slightly wider than average for a tough US Open set up and the rough beside the fairways maybe isn't as penal as it has been in recent US majors.
Despite the length of the course this gives shorter hitters more of a chance simply because bomb and gauge tactics are somewhat restricted as a result. The traditional Poa grass on the greens in California makes way for Bentgrass at LACC. The course hasn't received rain in a long time so will more than likely play very firm, and get harder as the week continues.
Elevation changes and slopes on the fairways remind me of Augusta and it'd be no surprise should those who excel with their long game there consistently show up here at LACC. The rough around the greens looks very penal and those missing greens will face a tough task in controlling their distance whilst scrambling.
Viktor Hovland To Win at 17/1
I disembarked from the Hovland train at the USPGA and was very close to being left strewn on the tracks as he showed no signs of the final day problems that plagued him at the Open and Masters. His effort at Oak Hill was much more accomplished and but for an ounce of bad luck in the bunker on the 70th hole of the week could have landed his maiden major.
To be in that position alongside Koepka at that stage given the golf he had produced to that point was a phenomenal achievement and a testament as to how he has progressed for those two wides at St Andrews and Augusta. Stepping stones are a huge part of winning a major and Viktor has now undoubtedly completed his apprenticeship and is ready for graduation.
His short game continues to impress in majors where he has gained on the field around the greens in nine of the last 11 we have statistics for. A win at Muirfield Village cemented his place at the top table of the game given it was his first win in mainland America and do it at 'Jack's place' was a tremendous achievement.
Plenty have been guilty, including me, of ignoring the obvious when it comes to these Majors with Rahm and Scheffler and more recently Koepka making many look silly for not being on, and Hovland may just add his name to that list.
At 16/1 the bookmakers are very well aware of his prospects but he surely rates a much better selection than Patrick Cantlay at the same price who has landed just one strokeplay victory in the last 18 months and has yet to seriously challenge down the final few holes for any of these events.
3pts WIN V.Hovland 17/1 (Bet365 Enhanced)
Tyrrell Hatton at 30/1 (Eight Places)
Sunday evening was extremely draining for Fleetwood and up until his marathon with Nick Taylor in Canada he had been a serious consideration of mine for this event. He too has served his apprenticeship in majors with a handful of top five finishes and looks ready to take one down.
His price has got thinner as a result of his heroic efforts last weekend though and both physically and mentally may find it difficult to go into battle again should he end up in a similar situation. For that reason he is reluctantly passed over in favour of another Englishman who went close in Canada, Tyrrell Hatton.
Hatton seemingly played himself out of the battle in Canada at the weekend with a double bogey early on the 8th in the final round but fought back well to finish 16 under and when it looked Taylor may not birdie the 72nd he traded sub 3/1 having been as big as 400/1 a few hours previous. His 3rd placed finish was the latest in a long line of hugely impressive efforts for the Englishman who now ranks 3rd on tour in scoring average and 3rd in total strokes gained for the season to date.
He sits behind Rahm and Scheffler in both those departments and considering how consistent he has been this represents his best chance to land a major to date. He has played the tougher weeks this year particularly well finishing 2nd to Scheffler at Sawgrass and 4th at Bay Hill. If we go back to 2018 he finished 6th at Shinnecock Hills, an event that may prove vital to solving this conundrum as it was one of the firmest majors in the past decade or so.
Koepka and Fleetwood were 1st and 2nd that week and must have every chance of going well in similar conditions. My preference is for Hatton however who is playing sparkling stuff and may just have reached the maturity threshold to land a tournament of this difficulty.
2pts each-way T.Hatton 30/1 (1/5 8) Bet365, Skybet
Bryson Dechambeau at 40/1 (10 Places)
Bryson Dechambeau looks a much healthier version of himself and if anywhere near his best would have been sub 20/1 a couple of years ago following a 4th placed finish in the USPGA. In 2020 Dechambeau finished 4th at Harding Park in the PGA before going on to win the US Open at Winged Foot.
He looks to repeat that feat this week at LA Country Club following a solid effort at Oak Hill where he somewhat stalled on the final day but far from collapsed like Koepka did when he re-entered the conversation with a final grouping at the Masters in April.
Koepka figured it out quickly and although this course may not necessarily suit the bombers as much as Oak Hill did, Bryson is capable of blowing the opposition away should his driver behave.
He can miss fairways here to a certain degree and not be punished like other major venues in recent years but he'll need to avoid the huge misses as barrancas await those who stray far from the cut and prepared. Dechambeau has two top 10s on the LIV tour either side of his 4th placed finish at the PGA and also carries a lot of Gil Hanse design form to California this week.
Wins at Winged Foot, Ridgewood and TPC Boston were all Gil Hanse renovations and there is nobody in the field that rivals this type of form on these courses. He has won on a brutally firm and fast Bay Hill in the past and he brings the added bonus of contending a recent major which is a prevalent trend in this era and will be determined to follow in Brooks' footsteps by putting his name well and truly back in the golfing spotlight.
1.5pts each-way B.Dechambeau 40/1 (1/5 10) Paddypower
Justin Rose at 45/1 (Seven Places)
The two most challenging to leave off the list were Si Woo Kim and Denny McCarthy. Kim already has a win bagged this year and looks capable of scoring on a tough major layout. McCarthy should love this test and has a putter as potent as anyone else in the field. His irons have been impressive lately also and the fact he finished 7th here in this event last year is a good springboard for him to improve upon now playing better golf.
I get the impression this grind could result in a few more experienced sorts getting into the mix though on Sunday and the pick of them is Justin Rose. Since 2021 Rose lost considerable distance off the tee and struggled to make an impact but the numbers are increasing once again. Marry that with ranking 13th on tour on approach play and it is no surprise that the 2013 Champion re-entered the winners enclosure earlier this year at Pebble Beach.
He didn't quite hit those heights on Sunday despite having a great chance heading into the final day in Canada. However, money and ranking points aside, I doubt either Hatton or Rose would trade places with Fleetwood and these two must land in Los Angeles the fresher of the candidates.
Looking back to 2013 at Merrion there are various similarities, one being that it was a Gil Hanse redesign also. Similar problems awaited errant drives with barrancas running throughout the course. It was firm and very difficult just like how LACC will play although I doubt whether Rose's winning score of +1 back in 2013 will make the top 10 here. He has plenty going for him and should relish the challenge as the course will get tougher as the week goes on.
1.5pts each-way J.Rose 45/1 (1/5 7) Unibet
Justin Thomas at 40/1 (10 Places)
Justin Thomas is certainly going through a strange season but I find it very difficult to write him off and at 40/1 with ten places available just has to be on the staking plan. He missed the cut at the Masters but we all know how badly his draw was and he was up against it that Saturday morning in the worst of the weather.
Since then top 25s at Harbour Town and Quail Hollow were solid efforts, with his long game performing extremely well with the shorter sticks somewhat pulling him up. Oak Hill was always going to be a struggle if you don't drive the ball well and Thomas didn't hit it long or straight that week so was never going to get into the mix.
Last time out at the Memorial his long game was in decent shape once again with a horror week on and around the greens contributing to a missed cut. He has been outside the top 25 just four times in 12 appearances this calendar year. I'm unconvinced that his recent diet change has contributed to poor golf and instead a continuation of short game problems have led to more ordinary results.
In tests such as this the cream often rises to the top and I'm prepared to take a chance on Thomas who showed just what a dogged competitor he was when coming through the field at the PGA last year.
1.25pts each-way J.Thomas 40/1 (1/5 10) Paddypower
Wyndham Clark at 60/1 (10 Places)
One who must be given a chance to strike gold this despite a poor major run to date is Wyndham Clark. Clark produced statistically the best week of the season when winning the Wells Fargo and comfortably dispatching Xander Schauffele there will give him huge confidence should he land in a similar situation in any upcoming events.
He ranked 2nd on approach at Bayhill, 3rd at Copperhead and 1st at Quail Hollow. These are excellent efforts with the irons and has been consistent all season with these clubs currently ranking 23rd on tour. The upturn on approach play has been the key to his success this year and when you manage to top the putting stats alongside approaching the green it is no wonder it was the standout performance of the year at Quail Hollow.
His driving was the most accurate it has been this year last time out at Muirfield Village ranking 26th in the field on fairways hit. This is what let him down at Oak Hill but slightly more room off the tee here should grant him more grace and should he be in position he has the ability to score extremely well from there on in.
An extremely talented sort that Data Golf currently rank 13th in the world and I wouldn't entirely disagree. Roughly 30 golfers are priced shorter than him though and that doesn't look quite right given what he is capable of and having landed a recent win.
1pt each-way W.Clark 60/1 (1/5 10) William Hill
Joel Dahmen at 500/1 (10 Places)
Finally I'll have a small Hail Mary bet on Joel Dahmen. These events always throw up a surprise contender or two and my left field dart is for Joel. A number of years ago on the No Laying Up podcast he said he loves firm and fast conditions and that if any major had these conditions it would really suit him.
When he won in Punta Cana it was blowing a gale and controlling distance with the irons and from around the greens became extremely important in the latter stages of that event.
Similar will play out here in the fact that high rough around the greens will mean controlling distance to the flag will become vital for scrambling and if he can recapture some of those characteristics the conditions may suit. He won that event in Punta Cana coming off the back of six missed cuts in seven events.
He can win from nowhere and he'll be doing so again if he manages the miracle this week. On his day he is a great ball striker but has struggled badly with his short game this season. A turn around in that department could see him surprise many.
0.5pt each-way J.Dahmen 500/1 (1/5 10) Paddypower
