Niall Lyons has five tips for the BMW Championship in Olympia Fields, Illinois.
BMW Championship
Olympia Fields is the penultimate destination on the 2022/23 season and we're in for a treat should it play similar to how it did back in 2020 when a four under par total was enough for a playoff. Rahm and Dustin Johnson fought it out with some incredible putting in regulation and during the playoff holes with the Spaniard coming out on top. It is difficult to know if we'll face similar scoring conditions here.
BMW Championship Tips | Niall Lyons Golf Betting Tips
Rain and thunderstorms could disrupt the beginning of the tournament but good weather is forecast the rest of the week although shouldn't be anywhere near as stifling as last week in Memphis. When Rahm won in 2020 he did so playing extremely well throughout the bag ranking inside the top 10 in three of the four strokes gained categories.
Rahm, Johnson, Niemann, Finau and Kokrak all hit the ball a mighty whack though and with the course playing over 7300 yards and a par 70 I'd be surprised if the leaderboard wasn't dominated by the longer hitters at the weekend.
Scheffler was once again extremely frustrating and whilst it looked only a matter of time before his long game translated into a victory again, the putter has become a very serious issue. His long game in parts wasn't up to scratch either and even if he goes to East Lake with a lead he could be particularly vulnerable to a closer. Jon Rahm is perfect for this place but a few days with an underperforming driver is enough to put me off and with that part of his game not particularly firing on all cylinders I'm happy to pass him up.
Rory McIlory win at 15/2
Rory McIlroy is extremely aware of his legacy in the sport and having won three FedEx Cups previously will have his sights firmly set on winning another next week. He knows this week is all important to position yourself for the final 72 holes next week at East Lake where his record speaks for itself. If he can grab the lead for next week he will be the shortest price in the history of the event there's no doubt. The Irishman's long game was imperious last week ranking 2nd off the tee and 4th on approach.
Only for a poor week with his work around the greens he would have surely won the event and would be in pole position for his 4th Fedex prize. His final round of -5 in Memphis was impressive and the expression on his face when he rolled in a 20 footer on the 72nd suggested that he thought he had let one slip through his fingers.
It was another poor week for Rahm and he looks to be shooting too many average rounds now to take this event down despite being a defending champion. This is a perfect classical setup where Rory usually thrives and I fully expect him to put his best foot forward to try and grab that all important lead heading to the Tour Championship.
Xander Schauffele at 18/1 (Six Places)
Another with a fine East Lake record who could propel himself into the conversation for a Fedex win is Xander Schauffele and Olympia Fields may just be the perfect place for him launch an assault. Xander had a poor driving week in Memphis but it's worth noting he has an average record around there and earlier in the season he overcame a handful of poor driving displays only to hit the ball much better at Augusta on route to a top 10.
Poor driving weeks don't linger often in Schauffele's game and given his record on Major championship tests he has to be closely watched on a layout like Olympia Fields. 7th on approach last week was a fine effort and following a poor driving display and an average week on and around the greens his top 25 finish was mildly encouraging. His prowess for a test such as this is much greater and he will be one with grand designs for the next couple of weeks and looks more than capable of fashioning something out of it.
Max Homa at 25/1 (Six Places)
Another worth closely watching following the last few weeks is Max Homa. The Californian comes off the back of his first major top ten finish which will be a mini monkey removed from his back. A great ball striking display in Liverpool was followed with similar again in Memphis and following a mid season lull the two time winner this season looks to be ending the campaign in fine fashion. Similar to the way Rahm won here back in 2020 Homa looks a likely contender to gain strokes in all categories which will be an important asset as Olympia Fields.
Wins at Quail Hollow, Riviera, Torrey Pines and Potomac only seek to underline Homa's tendency to play extremely well on classical layouts that demand long and straight driving. Given this is a major championship style layout he will be buoyed by his recent career best at the Open and on a course that really suits his long game he may be able to continue a four week streak of improvements finishing 21-12-10-6.
2pts each-way M.Homa 25/1 (1/5 6) Paddypower, Betfair Sportsbook
