Niall Lyons has five tips for the Irish Open in Straffan, Ireland.
2023 Irish Open
Ryder Cup fever is in full swing but the next two weeks provide some of the best action this tour has to offer and with the K Club and Wentworth the next two venues there is plenty to get excited about. McIlroy arrives here after injury concerns during the Tour Championship that didn't quite see him perform to his best, but nevertheless it was a battling effort.
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Question marks certainly surround his fitness with a back issue and his commitment to these next two events may force him into playing whenever he'd normally pull out with the Ryder Cup on the horizon. A final round of 65 at East Lake certainly put some of those concerns to bed but I'd question whether getting involved around the 7/2 is the prudent choice.
Looking back at the history of the European Open while it was held here there are plenty of things to digest. The main one being is that this course always brought the cream of the game to the top. Langer (Masters winner), Clarke (Open winner), Michael Campbell (US Open winner) all won here at the K Club in the 90s and 00s.
Taking a look at who competed throws up the same info. Constantino Rocca who played with Woods in the final group of the 97 Masters contended here almost every single year. He also has a runner up finish at the Open. Harrington (Triple major winner) has a couple of places to his name at the K Club, as do Olazabal and Goosen who are both double majors winners also.
Thomas Bjorn and Lee Westwood (twice winner here) are no strangers to pressure in major championships either. A look back to 2005 and you'll see Kenneth Ferrie winning, a name plenty may forget, but even he managed a 6th placed finish in the 2006 US Open. Without doubt this course lends itself to the best in the game, and this week it may be hard to shift the main protagonists.
Irish Open Tips | Niall Lyons Golf Betting Tips
The last Irish Open to be held here was back in 2016 with McIlroy topping the greens in regulation stat for the week. That was the 3rd time on the trot the winner had hit the most greens around this venue so it certainly looks like a good place to start.
Distance off the tee has never been a huge advantage around here with many strategic holes and it looks more important to keep the ball in play and consistently hit the greens. The course also held the Irish Challenge last year where recent winner Todd Clements came out on top beating Irishman Tom McKibbin.
Aaron Rai at 33/1 (Seven Places)
Those coming off the PGA Tour will no doubt have an advantage over the rest and I'll look to include a couple in my staking plan, starting off with Aaron Rai. Towards the top of the betting Shane Lowry is an uneasy third favourite and it would be a surprise to me should he oblige this week. His history and talent of course places him there in the betting but I'd argue he is too short given his performances over the last few months.
He is severely under pressure with the Ryder Cup scrutiny also. I think Min Woo Lee is better suited to a test where he can really use his length off the tee. This leaves Hatton, Scott and Rai of those coming from the States and I prefer the Aussie and Rai at more than double Hatton's price. Aaron Rai is ploughing a nice career for himselfon the PGA Tour to date and must be closely watched when returning to Europe.
His last effort on a full DPWT event was last September when finishing in the top five at Marco Simone. He finished one shot outside of the playoff in the Canadian Open back in June whilst a run of solid results throughout the rest of that month saw him get to the playoffs but miss out on the top 50 slot for the BMW.
He will see these next two weeks as a huge opportunity to bag another victory, the last of which came in Scotland back in 2020. The win at Hong Kong GC was another sign of how he likes a tough driving golf courses and accuracy certainly will help around the K Club. Any repeat of those efforts from June will see him go close.
2.5pts each-way A.Rai 33/1 1/5 7 (Paddypower, Betfair)
Adam Scott at 22/1 (Seven Places)
Onto Adam Scott and of those names mentioned in my introduction who have won and played well around this venue, Scott would certainly sit pretty among them. No better than 29th in the Majors this year was a disappointment but after a really lacklustre start to the season he certainly made strides from May onwards. 8th at Craig Ranch followed a top five at Quail Hollow and further top 10s arrived at the Memorial and Wyndham.
It was a brave battle at Sedgefield where he finished 72nd on the rankings and narrowly missed the trip to Southwind. His ball striking has been excellent of late, and I feel he could benefit from the month off. The likes of Meronk, the Hojgaards, Lowry and Paul have all had the Ryder Cup weighing upon their shoulders these last few weeks.
That weight is now lifted but it has no doubt been a tiring affair and they could feel the effects this week and take their foot off the gas a little. The others can capitalise and Scott can be the one to add his name to the winners list here like fellow countrymen Lucas Herbert and Brett Rumford.
2.5pts each-way A.Scott 22/1 1/5 7 (Paddypower, Betfair)
Joost Luiten at 60/1 (Eight Places)
Joost Luiten continued a run of good form last week in the Swiss Mountains shooting 66-66-68-65 on route to a top five finish. In full DPWT events his last three results read 5-8-2 and that goes with another three top three finishes on tour this year. Considering he only had three top five finishes from 2017 until 2022 it's a fine return to post four of those this calendar year.
The Dutchman has certainly re-ignited and a return to a venue that will demand good ball striking and a high number of greens in regulation should give him another chance to score well. He ranks 12th on tour this year in greens in regulation and if his putter stays lukewarm (22nd last week) then it all bodes well for another top ten finish.
The Brabazon course at the Belfry may prove beneficial to look to and a recent event there only two months ago may hold a key to unlocking some interesting outsiders here. Luiten finished 8th there and although the field strength ramps up once again this week he holds plenty of aces with his long game recently.
1.25pts each-way J.Luiten 60/1 (1/5 8) Bet365 8 place market, William Hill
Marcus Helligkilde at 110/1 (Seven Places)
At 100/1 Marcus Helligkilde looks one to side with who after a bad run of form since late Spring has turned things around. He hit the ball really well at Galgorm three weeks ago ranking 2nd on approach and he brought that form with him to Crans where he ranked 13th in the same department.
His driver remains a slight worry and he'll need to improve from the tee if he wants to win around the Palmer Course but the rest of his game is firing and he remains a dangerous opponent in an event where the Danish have a great record.
It's worth noting that having shot a first round of 71 last week, over the next three rounds he beat the winner Aberg by one shot, the runner up Bjork by two shots, and the 3rd placed Matt Fitzpatrick by five shots. Coupled with his fine effort in the North of Ireland it's clear his game has turned a corner.
1pt each-way M.Helligkilde 110/1 1/5 7 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
Julien Guerrier at 150/1 (Eight Places)
Finally I'll include Frenchman Julien Guerrier. Guerrier has struck the ball very well since May including two standout efforts in the Italian Open and European Open. Both courses demand a solid long game and similar applies to the Palmer Course.
Most recently he has a 3rd placed finish in the Barracuda, where he closed with an incredible 61 to come with a wet sail through the field. A cold putter set him back a little in Prague but a top 25 finish was fair.
With three top three finishes in his last nine events he looks value at triple figure prices and he returns to Ireland, the scene of his last victory back in 2017 just a short car journey down the road from the K Club at Mount Wolseley.
1pt each-way J.Guerrier 150/1 (1/5 8) Bet365 8 place market
