Niall Lyons has six tips for the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth.
BMW PGA Championship
Two weeks out from the Ryder Cup match in Rome, the BMW PGA provides the perfect entree as the full European team tee it up in Surrey. The action at the K Club was as exciting as it gets and you'd have to expect similar here with the strength of field improving even more so from Ireland last week. 17 under or better has been needed to win here on the last five occasions with the West Course losing it's some of its bite in recent years.
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BMW PGA Championship Tips | Niall Lyons Golf Betting Tips
Attention will no doubt turn to Ludvig Aberg after his victory in the Swiss Mountains and it will be fascinating to see how he fares at Europe's flagship event. He certainly has the game off the tee to make his presence felt here and if you want to win around this venue your driving game needs to be in tip top shape. Runners up last year Rahm and McIlroy both ranked 1st and 2nd in that department whilst the winner Lowry ranked 16th.
Similar to the formula in the Fortinet in California this week we'll be looking to tee to green experts when narrowing down our search for a potential winner. The last three winners here have all ranked 1st in strokes gained tee to green for the week. There isn't much room for error and you'll need to combine all aspects of that equation to score well enough to contend.
Ludvig Aberg at 22/1 (Eight Places)
There may well be a time when Ludvig Aberg is favourite alongside the likes of McIlroy in this event and with 22/1 available I'm prepared to take the chance that we'll be on the right side of history here. The Swedish star has made the Ryder Cup team with only a handful of PGA Tour appearances to his name and has yet to play in a Major Championship.
That is just how talented and progressive this big hitting 23-year-old is and it'd be no surprise to me should he continue on his winning ways. Having torn it up in the amateur world it didn't take him long to land his first prize and he did so impressively in the Swiss Mountains overcoming fellow Ryder Cup teammates Matt Fitzpatrick and Nicolai Hojgaard in the process.
This of course is his first trip to Wentworth and he'll be up against it in that regard. This is often won by seasoned campaigners and those with plenty of experience in the bank. Byeong Hun An and Matteo Manassero bucked that trend a little but nevertheless results here certainly favour the more experienced players. Breaking records and making a mockery of such things will no doubt be a feature of Aberg's career though and I'm happy to take the chance he can overcome the inexperience here.
He is best driver in the field, something that is a huge advantage around this place. From tee to green he is also right up there with the best also and looks to have all the tools to tame this track. 22/1 quotes may be a thing of the past in the very near future and whilst that's still a big possibility I'm happy to invest.
3.5pts each-way L.Aberg 22/1 (1/5 8) Bet365 8 place market, Skybet, William Hill
Justin Rose at 33/1 (Eight Places)
Justin Rose heads to Rome in a couple of weeks and he must feel very pleased that his resurgence has put him among the games elite once again. Whilst Westwood, Stenson, Garcia, Casey and others have shot themselves in the foot, Rose at 43 years of age has re-bloomed and he can be backed to finally land this Championship and realise a boyhood dream.
A couple of average rounds at Southwind and Olympia fields saw him plod home around 20th in both events but it's worth noting that a 3rd round of 61 in the St Jude was the best of the day by four shots whilst his 2nd round of 65 at the BMW was only beaten by one other. For this reason I'm happy to have a nibble on the first round leader market also.
Rose plays tremendously well here with a runner up and a further three top tens posted since 2010. Another runner up finish came back in 2007. It's any Englishman's dream to be the champion around here and Rose has served his apprenticeship around this track and looks primed to finally land the prize.
2.5pts each-way J.Rose 33/1 (1/5 8) General
Robert MacIntyre at 66/1 (Eight Places)
Robert MacIntyre is a frustrating fellow to follow but when quotes of 66/1 appear for someone so talented then it's necessary to sit up and take notice. The runner up finish in his home country was a special feat and really he ought to have won only for a miraculous final few holes by McIlroy. He couldn't have done any more and it is a trend with his game that he often plays his best in group 1 company.
One missed cut in 12 major appearances is a sign of that as is of course that 2nd to McIlroy in an exceptional field a couple of months ago. Last year his victory at Marco Simone was at the expense of Fitzpatrick and McIlroy who ran him extremely close. Bob wasn't afraid to put it to the likes of these once again at the Renaissance and although his career is littered with inconsistency I'm more than happy to get involved at prices of 66/1 when the quality increases.
He hung onto the Ryder Cup spot mainly due to a top five finish in Prague and he must be commended for finishing 3rd in the European rankings. Rai and Bjork who were a fair way from ever making the side sit shorter in the market and there's no doubt on his day MacIntyre's ceiling is a shade bigger than those.
1.5pts each-way R.MacIntyre 66/1 (1/5 8) Skybet
Thomas Detry at 50/1 (Eight Places)
Two years ago Thomas Detry fell foul of the draconian scorecard rules in Golf and was disqualified following shooting rounds of 70 and 69 to sit inside the top 25 at halfway. Not only did it scupper his chances of a victory, but also of a Ryder Cup spot which he was still in the running for at the time. A year later he sat 3rd at the halfway stage and finished 5th, 3 shots behind Lowry.
He can feel somewhat aggrieved last year also with the death of a member of the Royal Family shortening the event to 54 holes. It was another chance taken away from him but his last six rounds at Wentworth now read 69-69-70-68-65-69. That is fair evidence to suggest he has matured at the course following two mid tier finishes and a missed cut previously.
The Belgian hit the ball impressively off the tee last week at the K Club on route to a top 25 finish. His iron play will need to be better if he is to win this but any improvement in that department could see him go very close.
1.5pts each-way T.Detry 50/1 (1/5 8) Bet365 8 place market, William Hill
Connor Syme is in the form of his life and any triple figure quotes are certainly worth a second glance. Aaron Rai winning would hurt having ranked 2nd from tee to green last week at the K Club and holing absolutely nothing. Billy Horschel holds obvious claims whilst Jordan Smith looks more than capable of having another run at a title following last week's disappointment.
Francesco Molinari at 150/1 (Eight Places)
Francesco Molinari may be a very risky play here given his form but he improves a lot for a return to Wentworth and at 150/1 is worth a small wager each way. Back in 2019 the Italian arrived at Wentworth following finishes of 61st and 82nd in the Fedex playoff events. He finished 14th a few weeks later at Wentworth.
Last year he was having a miserable year then finished in the top ten here, although it must be said he had produced one of his best efforts of the year 6 weeks beforehand at the Open. This year more dismal form leads into his quest for a second BMW PGA triumph but it must be noted his golf has improved three weeks on the trot with his latest finish being 31st in Prague.
He was inside the top 15 there heading into the final day before a sub standard 72 saw him tumble 16 places. Recent finishes here read 9-35-14-WIN-2-55-5-7-9-7. His long game has been in decent nick in three of his last four outings recently and a return to one his favourite haunts could render the 150/1 very interesting come the weekend.
0.75pt each-way F.Molinari 150/1 (1/5 8) General
Marcel Siem at 250/1 (Eight Places)
This is almost always won by classy sorts so I didn't want to litter the staking plan with many further down the betting, but I'll take a chance on Marcel Siem. Buoyed by a win on the Challenge Tour in 2021 the German has resurrected his career and was rewarded earlier in the season with a victory in India. Plenty of solid efforts have followed including a runner up finish at the European Open.
After a couple of poor efforts in Prague and Switzerland he bounced back to form with a top 20 at the K Club and it could have been a lot better had he not endured a horror week on the greens. He ranked 1st from tee to green and a similar effort here will see him in a similar place or better on the leaderboard.
Siem has form in Turkey that has been a good guide to this in the past as well as a couple of top 10 finishes here so anything towards 200/1 looks value.
0.75pt each-way M.Siem 250/1 (1/5 8) Paddypower, Betfair Sportsbook
