Niall Lyons has four tips for the Fortinet Championship in California.
Fortinet Championship
If you thought this was the beginning of the new PGA Tour season then you'd be mistaken as the new calendar year schedule gets underway in January whilst playing exemptions for next year and beyond are finalised over the next few months in this series of 'Fall' events.
The first of which takes place in California at the Silverado Resort and Max Homa is bidding to become a back-to-back-to-back Champion in his home state. Homa has also won the Genesis at Riviera and the Farmers at Torrey to combine for an incredible record in this state and that is always a good place to start when analysing this week's field. Form in California often carries over and with Poa Annua greens featuring here and across a handful of other courses used on the West Coast a nod to this form is advised.
Fortinet Championship Tips | Niall Lyons Golf Betting Tips
One thing in particular stands out when looking to the course stats and that's how dominant the tee to green experts have been here. Homa ranked 1st tee to green last year when winning, and second in the same stat when he won in 2021.
Steele and Champ both topped the tee to green numbers whilst Cink was 2nd and Tway was 3rd. There is no compromising on this and it's the necessary statistic to look to. Fairways are narrow enough but rough doesn't tend to be too punishing so bombers and shorter hitters can taste success here.
Max Homa to Win at 15/2
On one hand you have Max Homa, winner of the last two stagings of this event and worthy favourite, on the other you have the dilemma of backing a golfer at 15/2 outside of the world's top three. Opposition must be duly taken into account and when you've got a 3rd favourite who has yet to win as a professional the price about Ryder Cup star Homa becomes a shade more palatable.
Thomas arrives having had no tournament golf since the beginning of August although 12th spot at the Wyndham was a welcome return to form and the 14/1 about him is interesting also. Homa's record in California, coupled with his proficiency around Silverado suggests to me that the 15/2 in offer is more than big enough to invest in. Both of Homa's wins last season came in California both here and at Torrey Pines.
He also has a win at Riviera to make him comfortably the best in the field around these parts and on Poa Annua greens. When we look to the Tour Championship in a 30 man field Homa went off 11/1-12/1 for the lowest 72 hole score, a market that included Rory, Rahm, Scheffler, Hovland and Cantlay to name a few. This week he tees it up in Silverado as the only player from that Tour Championship, in an event he has won the past two years and we see 15/2.
To my eyes that represents value and we don't need to over complicate it. I feel Thomas should be slightly shorter also, as well as Davis with Theegala tucking in 4th and I can't help but feel the gap to the rest should be bigger in terms of price. Hopefully the trip to Rome hasn't taken much out of Homa, who is more than aware of records and his place in the history books.
Securing his third win on the trot at this course would firmly cement him as one of the best Californian performers of his generation and he has been given a solid chance of completing the task with the strength of field.
5pts WIN M.Homa 15/2 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
Cameron Davis at 22/1 (Eight Places)
With upwards of 22/1 available on Cameron Davis I find it very difficult to turn down and he's next on my staking plan. Having progressed in 2022 and playing well in the Presidents Cup he endured a difficult start to 2023. Missed cuts from the American Express all the way through the Arnold Palmer wasn't what we expected of the talented Aussie but he soon put it right.
6th at Sawgrass in elite company was backed up with 7th at Harbour Town then a rattling finish to tie for 4th place at the USPGA. 10th at the 3M Open, 7th at the Wyndham and 6th at the St Jude took him all the way to Olympia Fields but a 40th placed finish there wasn't enough to see him into East Lake. It was a very impressive recovery from a poor start to the year though and I expect him to kick on once again.
His opening 10th place in the Sentry TOC in 2022 showed he can go well fresh and with a weak field bar the top couple in the market this is a very good opportunity for him to pounce for his second tour victory.
2.5pts each-way C.Davis 22/1 (1/5 8) Paddypower, Coral, Ladbrokes
Akshay Bhatia at 50/1 (Six Places)
JJ Spaun has a decent record in this state and hits the ball tremendously well from tee to green. He is playing really good golf this past 12 months and has every chance to capitalise upon a weakened field. 33/1 about someone who has only won once in seven seasons is a bit much for me to take the leap though. Instead I'll opt for someone who has recently won in the shape of Akshay Bhatia.
At just 21 years old he managed a victory at the Barracuda a couple of months ago having benefitted from being in contention in Mexico in late April. Runner up in Puerto Rico was another impressive result from this classy individual who makes all his gains from tee to green. He hits the ball a mile, and straight into the bargain and his solid approach play should be perfect for Silverado.
66-72-66-68 here on debut last year saw him finish in 9th place and being a Californian will be suited to these types of tests. I'd much rather invest in Bhatia at 50s than Theegala around the 18/1 mark with much similar credentials for the pair.
1pt each-way A.Bhatia 50/1 (1/5 6) Skybet
Davis Thompson at 60/1 (Eight Places)
One to nibble on at bigger prices is Davis Thompson. The former world number one amateur narrowly missed out on a place in the St Jude finishing 73rd on the Fedex rankings. He can be proud of his maiden season on tour with two top 25 finishes coming his last four outings.
He has the added bonus of going very close in his first season on tour also shooting 26 under par in the Californian desert only to be pipped by one shot by Jon Rahm. Previous to that he was 9th here at Silverado on debut. That is his two best efforts on tour coming in California and having finished the season strong can be fancied to start well again in these fall events.
1pt each-way D.Thompson 60/1 (1/5 8) Paddypower
