
Niall Lyons analyses the latest 2023 Ryder Cup odds before arriving at five betting tips for this week's action in Rome.
Ryder Cup 2023
Team USA to win Ryder Cup @ Evens
The Americans took a trip to Rome minus a few members a few weeks ago due to family commitments and pictures emerged of them polishing off plenty of Italian food and red wine.
In Spieth, Thomas and Fowler they have a bunch of friends who can provide a solid backbone to this side that was missing throughout the 90s and early 2000s.
Cantlay and Schauffele combine to make a formidable partnership whilst the team star Scottie Scheffler doesn't divide opinion and popularity much like similar top golfers in this team have done in the past.
Rarely would we have seen the American team socialise as much as what we do now and for all these reasons I believe in this era we'll see a much more cohesive and competitive team on away soil whilst this core remains active.
If we look at strokes gained stats over the last three months the Americans have eight of the first 11. McIlroy and Hovland top that list so Team Europe can take heart from that but I'd argue that if one of those two don't perform across the week then home side will be in trouble.
They can't afford their best not to perform, whilst I believe if similar happens to Team USA they have more strength at the bottom to make up for that.
Team USA to win Ryder Cup - Evens Sky Bet, William Hill
Player to get Zero Points
Robert MacIntyre Zero Points @ 11/4
It seems harsh to single out Robert MacIntyre seeing that he qualified outright due to good decision making with the schedule and of course some good golf, but in the Scot it looks like the home side have a worry.
In the last three months Langasque, Detry, Noren, Luiten, Rai and Jaeger are just a handful of the names who have performed better across that timeframe. A similar outlook appears over six months and when the data gurus often cite long term form as the barometer for picks in this event, it is a worrying aspect.
The Scot on paper doesn't look to have a natural pairing either and if Europe go behind early in the match MacIntyre will more than likely be the one to sit a day out and only play two matches across the week.
The fly in the ointment is that he has won around this track but in terms of Match Play I don't believe we can put too much emphasis upon this, and the mere fact Meronk was left out backs this up that course form certainly isn't a deciding factor.
This is a different assignment, a changed course setup and playing against the best USA has to offer is a different game altogether to the one Bob faced when he won here a few years ago.
He could struggle and if Luke Donald had 12 picks for this event I'd say there would be a further three or four golfers ahead of him in the pecking order.
MacIntyre to get zero points 11/4 bet365, Sky Bet
Ryder Cup Top Rookie
Brian Harman Top Rookie @ 10/1 (Three Places) & Top USA Rookie @ 5/1
While I believe MacIntyre could struggle and be the lamb to the slaughter, I fully expect Ludvig Aberg to put his best foot forward, continuing his enormous strides in such a short space of time.
Many will point to his final day struggles at Wentworth but a change in conditions there on Sunday coupled with his two playing partners also playing some woeful stuff he certainly can be forgiven. The win in Crans was hugely impressive and he should learn plenty from those Sunday woes at the BMW.
Hojgaard is another lively sort in this category but my preference would be for Straka who could provide a formidable partnership in fourballs, and potentially with Jon Rahm. It's a lively market the European rookie and whilst I think it looks a three horse race I think there's a stronger case in the visitors’ rookie collection.
Sam Burns was a surprising addition to the American side and looks certain to partner up with Scottie Scheffler. That alone makes him a strong enough candidate in this field of four but Brian Harman at a top price of 5/1 looks the value.
Since the Match Play moved to Austin, Harman has lost only four of 12 matches. In 2003 he won the US Junior Amateur Championship beating a field of 64 over the weekend in Match Play. He went unbeaten in the 2005 Walker Cup victory when being the youngest ever to play in the event, won 2.5 from four in the 2009 edition and won all four of his games at the 2007 Palmer Cup.
Plenty will believe his lack of length will hinder him around this venue but he has coped well in that department of late. 9th in Detroit in an event won in recent years by DeChambeau, Fowler, Cam Davis and Finau is a sign he can cope with a bombers course.
Similar can be labelled of his 5th placed effort at Olympia Fields in behind Hovland, Fitzpatrick, Scheffler and McIlroy. His win at Hoylake wasn't exactly a cake walk in the length department either.
Overall Harman has plenty in the locker here to challenge in this market and the 7/4 Homa versus 5/1 Harman doesn't quite add up. Given my thoughts on MacIntyre and my view that Team USA are a little value in the outright I'm happy to add Harman in the top overall rookie market also.
2pts each-way B.Harman Top Rookie 10/1 (1/5 3) Sky Bet, William Hill, BetVictor
Top USA Rookie
Top USA Points Scorer
Brooks Koepka Top USA Points scorer @ 9/1 (Three Places)
The Top European market looks a tough one to call and Dave Tindall put across a compelling argument for Rahm on our podcast. I have little conviction in that market but one who I am prepared to chance in the Top USA market is Brooks Koepka.
I don't buy into the narrative that Brooks is one of the more unpopular members and the Netflix documentary certainly helped boost his public persona. When placing a bet in this market you want to be sure your player will be favourite in their singles match and Brooks will be bar against two or maybe three of the Europeans.
He is unbeaten in three singles matches to date and boasts a 50% record in all Ryder Cup matches so far. His recent form hasn't been the best but his strong driving and excellent long iron play should lend itself to Marco Simone.
Scheffler is an obviously strong candidate in this market but I'd argue if he doesn't top the pile, it could be any of the non-rookies in the team. I wouldn't be taking anything around the 7/1 mark but the 9/1 available really does look like value given how strong he has been in this event in the past.
Cantlay and Schauffele will dovetail each other and if they get beat at any stage this market will be even more wide open that what it currently looks. Also backing either of Schauffele or Cantlay in this market gives the big chance of a dead heat. Thus steering clear of those and opting for someone who is sure to have multiple partners looks the way forward.
B.Koepka Top USA Points scorer 9/1 (1/5 3) Coral, Ladbrokes













