Niall Lyons has five tips from the Alfred Dunhill Links in Scotland.
Alfred Dunhill Links Championship
Currently three members of the winning Ryder Cup team are due in Scotland and in Fleetwood, Fitzpatrick and MacIntyre they can be travel companions and make the trip together slightly bleary eyed no doubt. It remains to be seen whether Aberg makes the solo trip to Mississippi but I expect the two Englishmen and Scot to turn up here.
Alfred Dunhill Links Championship Tips | Niall Lyons Golf Betting Tips
This is a difficult event to land as plenty of the field has links form, but that is undoubtedly where to concentrate. If links form in Ireland or Scotland is missing then it's perhaps worth concentrating on Qatar and Portugal where an abundance of links specialists have made it into the winner's enclosure. Look down the list of winners here and it's difficult to point out one who didn't have links pedigree.
Even Victor Perez, who had recently moved to Scotland before his victory there had appeal. With the pro am format and three different courses there undoutbedly remains an ounce of luck to landing the winner here and we'll need the weather to fall right on each day for optimum scoring conditions for our selections. For those reasons stakes are usually kept relatively small, but I've got room for one stronger bet this week.
Callum Shinkwin at 80/1 (Six Places)
Having been quite keen on Callum Shinkwin in France a few weeks ago I was frustrated with him turning in a similar ball striking effort to that which seen him finish 7th at Wentworth only for him to have a horror show on the greens. His tee to green game has been exceptional these last two events and a trip to the Scottish links could grant him some ease in the putting department with slower greens.
His credentials on paper here are tremendous and I'm surprised he has been chalked up as big as what he is in a few places. He was edged out by a shot here last year finishing 2nd to Ryan Fox and back in 2017 he had a similar fate being beaten by Cabrera Bello in a playoff at Dundonald. Three top 20s across Vilamoura and Doha is another positive to the Englishman's chances this week.
Given his form on Links and the last two events I didn't expect the likes of Southgate, Langasque, Ferguson and co to be shorter than Shinkwin and the 80/1 on offer looks a cracking bet.
2pts each-way C.Shinkwin 80/1 (1/5 6) Unibet, BetMGM
Thorbjorn Olesen at 35/1 (Eight Places)
Thorbjorn Olesen is always someone I had earmarked to have a new level to reach and with two wins in the last two years could be about to reach his peak. A win at the Belfry last year was indicative of his capabilities on these shores or whenever any wind comes into the equation.
A win here back in 2015 was on the cards following a runner up in 2012 as well as a 2nd and 3rd in Doha being a pre cursor to a win here. I've tried to include a few in my staking plan with this type of CV without having won here, but Olesen remains a very dangerous opponent in these conditions.
His approach play has been so impressive lately even in defeat and if he reaches the heights of recent events with his irons here this week then he'll be tough to keep out of the places.
Eddie Pepperell at 80/1 (Seven Places)
Eddie Pepperell may have missed his last two cuts but the two courses weren't perfectly suited and he should benefit by a return to the links. Peperell often struggles on overly long courses and he doesn't have that to deal with this week. Instead his iron play can do the talking.
In the Handa World Invitational he ranked 8th on approach and followed that up with 4th and 5th in the same department in Prague and in Switzerland. The dip with the irons at the Kl Club didn't last long and he bounced back well at Wentworth but missed the cut on the number despite a second round of 68 almost rescuing the poor Thursday.
There is plenty to like about the way he is playing and his form at the events we look to is second to none. 4th in Portugal last year added to previous 2nd and 3rd finishes there whilst a win in Doha, runner up at Royal County Down and three top 20s here put him ahead of most in the field.
1pt each-way E.Pepperell 80/1 (1/5 7) Paddy Power
Rafael Cabrera Bello at 250/1 (Eight Places)
Rafael Cabrera Bello has endured a horrid spell since winning the Open De Espana back in October of 2021 but with this links event and two Spanish events on the horizon he could be worth keeping a close eye on in the coming weeks. Having missed his previous six cuts on the DPWT Bello turned up at Wentworth a few weeks ago with little or no hope.
A second round of 67 though which was only beaten by six others saw him make the cut and eventually finish 57th. He took that and performed much better the next week in France with all parts of his game working well, and the second week on the trot that his iron play had improved.
Two solid efforts off the tee at those two event was very welcome given the struggle has had off the tee since late Spring. The course correlation is massive for Bello here given he has a win on the Dundonald Links as well as runner up finishes at Doha and Dom Pedro.
Numerous other efforts across Qatar, Portugal and Scotland make him one of the most dangerous in the field in regards to form on these tracks. The price is somewhat understandable but this is an event to take a few chances in and Bello's improvement in recent weeks hasn't been taken into account with a top price of 250/1.
0.75pt each-way R.Cabrera Bello 250/1 (1/5 8) Skybet
Jason Scrivener at 175/1 (Eight Places)
Jason Scrivener is another at a big price worth chancing on the links this week. The Australian finished of 2022 in fine fashion finishing 2nd in his home PGA, then 18th the following week in his home Open. Having finished 7th at Yas Links (another nice correlating course this week) he was going off a lot shorter than what we see this week.
That is largely down to a disappointing middle season but he has bounced back to form fairly well in the last couple of months finishing 40th and 28th across the two weeks of the Barbasol and Barracuda then three made cuts on the spin on the DPWT finishing 25th at Wentworth last time out.
Historically he has four top 20s posted in Portugal as well as a best of 24th here back in 2018. This is a much weaker field to that at Wentworth a few weeks ago and should he produce a similar effort to that anything around the 150/1 could look silly come the weekend.
0.75pt each-way J.Scrivener 175/1 (1/5 8) Bet365 8 place market
