Open De Espana

Jon Rahm heads to Madrid this week in an attempt to land a hat trick of victories around Club de Campo and 2/1 is the price that he obliges. His two previous victories here have been at slightly bigger odds (not much!) so I think we can safely say he is worthy of such a short price and his relentless nature in these fields and on this tour suggests he will be a tough favourite to beat.

Open De Espana Tips | Niall Lyons Golf Betting Tips

From previous renewals here we can glean that driving distance certainly helped and with totals of -25, -19 and -22 winning the three editions of this lately it will take a lot of birdies to contend. Work around the greens has also come into the equation with Rahm ranking 4th and 11th in that category when winning, and Cabera-Bello 23rd.

Their tee to green rankings have been 1st, 1st and 3rd also so it concentrates to pay attention to those who make their gains in that department. Spaniards have a notoriously good record in their home country also, although it must be said they have often had the favourites in their home events with the likes of Rahm and Garcia often heading the market.

Hennie Du Plessis at 50/1 (Seven Places)

Hennie Du Plessis has been playing some tremendous stuff lately making his last 10 cuts on the spin and could be a danger to Rahm this week. 10th at Wentworth was a fine effort and he backed that up with a top 20 last week in Scotland. 8th here on debut last year suggests this course suits and it certainly does on paper.

 

He has an abundance of length off the tee and his iron play is certainly pga tour standard right now. His tee to green game looks in the exact shape you'd want it to be heading to Club de Campo and the fact he ranks 11th on the DPWT in birdie average this season is enough to make you believe he could continue on his fine run here from last year.

The price has unfortunately crumbled a little early on Tuesday but with 50/1 on offer and 7 places still out there he remains my best bet of the week.

1.5pts each-way H.Du Plessis  50/1  (1/5 7)  Paddypower

Hennie Du Plessis - 1.5pts e/w @ 50/1

Alejandro Del Rey at 80/1 (Seven Places)

With Spaniards having a tremendous record in these events I'm inclined to get one or two on side and Alejandro Del Rey looks one worth siding with. Del Rey hits the ball an absolute mile and is right up there with the longest in the field. He ranks 3rd on the tour for birdie average this season so certainly has the ability to make the requisite scores here to contend.

Last week was his first appearance at the Dunhill Links so a 25th placed finish there was admirable and he should be much more suited to this tee to green test in Madrid. His massive asset is off the tee but the caveat is here he will no doubt need to improve his iron play to contend.

What we can take from the stats last week is questionable but he ranked 22nd on approach for the little stats we can take from that event which has to be taken as a positive. His irons were decent at the K Club also and any repeat of that kind of performance with his approach play could see him contend over the weekend in an event often dominated by the home players.

1pt each-way A.Del Rey  80/1  (1/5 7)  Paddypower

Alejandro Del Rey - 1pt e/w @ 80/1

Calum Hill at 60/1 (Seven Places)

Calum Hill already has a win on the DPWT and looks to be trending towards another with his latest efforts. He enjoyed a fair Summer finishing 10th at the BMW International Open, 4th in the British Masters then a top 25 in the Scottish Open. Lately he has been consistent making his last five cuts with a 10th placed finish in France and 25th last week at the Dunhill Links.

His 10th place in France was achieved despite ranking 57th in the field in approach play for those who made the cut. His impressive results in the last few months have largely been down to a really hot putter and he can count himself unlucky that his best effort all year with the irons at the K Club was met with one of his very few average weeks on the greens in the last four months.

He ranked 18th on approach last week for the little stats we have and with a solid game off the tee will be really dangerous should his approach play begin to fire. He has made two from two cuts here which 6 of 8 rounds in the 60s.

1pt each-way C.Hill  60/1  (1/5 7)  Paddy Power

Calum Hill - 1pt e/w @ 60/1

Matthieu Pavon at 80/1 (Eight Places)

Matthieu Pavon shot rounds of 64-68-68-65 last year to finish second to Rahm and incredibly only got within 6 shots. Nevertheless it was four really solid rounds and despite some inconsistency of late is worth chancing around the 80/1 mark. In February he finished 9th in the Ras Al Khaimah and backed it up the following week with a 6th placed finish in Singapore.

Later on in the year 7th at Eichenreid was followed up with a top 20 at Himmerland. Therefore his good weeks have often been followed by another and 6th in the Dunhill Links is enough for me to believe he could build upon four really good rounds here last year. He is still winless on tour but 80/1 on a birdie fest where he has had a good week prior to turning up in Spain is worth the risk.

1pt each-way M.Pavon  80/1  (1/5 8) Bet365 8 place market

Matthieu Pavon - 1pt e/w @ 80/1

Zander Lombard at 70/1 (Eight Places)

I'll finish with another South African in the shape of Zander Lombard. The South African has been inside the top 10 here at Club De Campo for six of his last 12 rounds. Finishes of 7th and 4th over his last three efforts suggest he has the tools to compete here.

Again he is another who has plenty of length off the tee and it is no surprise that his best two finishes this season have been runner ups at Ras Al Khaimah and Steyn City, two tracks dominated by the longer hitters. His irons have been in decent nick lately, especially in France where he ranked 2nd on approach.

If he turns up with the irons still in good shape he should be suited much more off the tee at this track and could see him improve upon the 10th place finish in Paris.

1pt each-way Z.Lombard  70/1  (1/5 8) Bet365 8 place market

Zander Lombard - 1pt e/w @ 70/1