Niall Lyons has four tips for the ZOZO Championship in Narashino, Japan.
Zozo Championship
Last week, Niall returned +163.67pts from two winners (Pavon 80/1 & Kim 12/1) and two places (Dahmen 125/1 & Lombard 70/1), spread over the Shriners Children's Open in Las Vegas and the Open de Espana in Madrid.
Narashino is once again host for the ZOZO Championship this week in Japan and we have three previous results here to analyse before narrowing our search for the winner. Basic stats have been produced for two of the three previous events here but in terms of strokes gained statistics we are left a little in the dark.
ZOZO Championship Tips | Niall Lyons Golf Betting Tips
Woods and Bradley both won here ranking 3rd in Greens In Regulation for the week and that fits the bill for such a narrow, tree lined course. It's important to have a solid long game, with both long and short irons and those slightly wayward off the tee may find themselves blocked out by the trees.
It reminds me of Wentworth in that regard but a nod to Augusta form looks necessary. We all know Woods' record around there but McIlroy finished 3rd behind Tiger back in 2019 also and he's had plenty of missed opportunities in Georgia. Sungjae Im was alongside McIlroy that week, another who has a Masters runner up in a relatively short career to date.
2021 Masters Champion Hideki Matsuyama was second to Tiger, and then won here two years later. 2018 Masters runner up Rickie Fowler was narrowly edged out by Keegan Bradley here last year so it is certainly worth scanning the field to see if any with solid Augusta records are teeing it up in Japan.
Aaron Rai at 55/1 (Eight Places)
We are only four weeks removed from the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth and runner up there Aaron Rai faces a slightly weaker field here on an equally suitable course and must be included in the staking plan. Rai has two DPWT victories to his name, one coming in the Far East at Hong Kong GC, another tree lined track where he edged out Matt Fitzpatrick, another golfer who is extremely proficient on these types of courses.
Last week, @BetGolfWorld returned +163.67pts from two winners and two places.
— oddschecker (@oddschecker) October 17, 2023
This week, he has four tips for the ZOZO Championship in Japan.
Get the tips here, just click on the video.
Following his near miss at Wentworth where he shaved the hole on the 72nd for a playoff he missed the cut in France but bounced back fairly well last week for a top 30, ranking 14th from tee to green. The problems arose on the greens as he ranked 58th with the putter from those who made the cut. This tee to green test is much more up his street as he is renowned for his accuracy from the tee.
He ranks 12th on tour this season in Greens In Regulation which together with his accuracy from the tee makes a potent combination for manufacturing your way around Narashino. A PGA Tour victory has eluded him to date but this represents a really good chance to get off the mark and he rates my top selection for the week.
Sungjae Im at 18/1 (Win)
Aberg very nearly won the week after the Ryder Cup, Fitzpatrick obliged in Scotland and last week it was Tom Kim who showed his class in a weakened field to claim victory. Whenever some of the world's best tee it up in weaker events it pays to concentrate on them and despite this having three or four big names as opposed to just the one, they'll prove a tough nut to crack.
Morikawa has been somewhat out of sorts for parts of the season having blown a chance in Hawaii and January and not fully recovered from it. Nevertheless Narashino looks a great fit for him and he could easily contend. He only bagged point point in the Ryder Cup as did Xander Schauffele who cut a little bit of a downtrodden figure that week and thereafter with the comments made by his Father.
Fowler was ill throughout the week in Rome and if he's fully recovered could be dangerous but with these guys having played little tournament competitive golf since late August I'm inclined to look at the other names and my eye is drawn to SungJae Im.
The 25 year old Korean headed home once again last week and really ought to have won having led going into the final day but he was edged out in a playoff following a lacklustre final round of 71. That was his second trip back to Korea this year, the other having resulted in a victory back in May. It's a short jaunt to Japan this week and it strikes me as ideal preparation for an event in which he finished 3rd to Tiger and Rory back in 2019.
He has the added bonus of a runner up finish at Augusta also. His 29th placed finish last year was off the back of a much longer trip from Vegas. I expect better this time following a nice run out last week and he could have the edge on the Ryder Cup players above him in the market.
Sahith Theegala at 22/1 (Win)
Min Woo Lee is dangerous having won in Macau last week but I worry about him on courses where hitting greens is important. His iron play doesn't match the rest of his game although his short game can certainly make up for those failings. He said himself he played flawless golf on Sunday so if he has hit form with the irons then he will be extremely tough to beat. Inconsistency reigns in that department though and I prefer Sahith Theegala at slightly bigger odds.
The Californian got off the mark at his last attempt in his home state and that could be the beginning of something special. He has driven the ball much straighter for the last couple of months and his iron play at both the BMW and Fortinet Championships was superb. Theegala sat outside the top 40 after round one here last year but fired rounds of 67-63-67 to finish 5th.
Debutants notoriously have it tough at Augusta and Theegala manged a top 10 there on first look in April. It would not surprise me should this extremely talented sort kick on following the win at Silverado and this looks a perfect opportunity to follow up.
Nick Taylor at 80/1 (Five Places)
KH Lee had his chances down the stretch in Vegas last week and really ought to have threatened Kim's number. Numerous missed putts on the back nine cost him and he will look to improve upon that top 10 finish. Nicolai Hojgaard could achieve something special sooner rather than later but I can't help but feel around the 40/1 is a little short in this field. Similar applies to Thomas Detry who I'm susprised isn't a fair bit bigger than the Dane.
They remain two sorts who could click into gear at any point on the PGA Tour but I'd be looking a bigger price on the two. Instead at double those odds I'll add Nick Taylor to the list.
The Canadian has had a special year winning his home Open and going very close to edging out Scottie Scheffler in a thrilling back nine at Scottsdale. Runner up in the teams events also at Zurich has capped a great year that took him all the way to East Lake. Last week in Vegas was his first outing since then and a tie for 13th was a fair effort with four rounds in the 60s.
He has plenty of room for improvement with his irons from last week and with a narrow tree lined track such as Narashino much more suited to his game I'm hopeful he can improve upon his position last week also. His only jaunt to Augusta to date resulted in a top 30 finish and he can certainly benefit from a course where only three par fives and a handful of short par fours are on the scorecard.
