Niall Lyons has Three tips for the Nedbank Golf Challenge in Sun City, South Africa.
Nedbank Golf Challenge
Just two more weeks we need to wait to crown the 2023 Race to Dubai Champion and the first of the final two heats takes place in Sun City this week at the famous Gary Player CC.
A small invitational in the 90s and 2000s has given way for an integral part of the end of season race where the top 60 in the DP World Tour rankings are invited as well as a handful of others.
Nedbank Golf Challenge Tips | Niall Lyons Golf Betting Tips
Small greens here make approach play difficult so a solid putter will be needed to scramble well. Despite it's yardage it doesn't play as long because of the altitude and recent winners such as Bezuidenhout, Fleetwood and Grace is a sign that ball striking is extremely important. Fleetwood was 1st and 2nd from tee to green in his two recent victories here and that seems like the place to start.
You won't get away with any part of the long game not firing around here and the longer and straighter you can hit it from the tee the better. Kikuyu rough around the small surfaces usually means scrambling plays a part in the equation also but I'd certainly lean towards the elite golfers who have a solid tee to green game.
Justin Rose at 20/1 (Eight Places)
Justin Rose looks in much better form than what his recent results suggest and around 20/1 looks a fair price in this company. His iron play has been magnificent all season including most recently at Wentworth and Club De Campo where a misfiring putter each week has caused him a huge headache.
Rose ranks 17th on the PGA Tour this year in strokes gained approach and if he can manage a good week with the driver he will be tough to keep off the Sunday leaderboard. A tremendous run in the middle of the season has somewhat tailed off but a large part of that has been his performance on the greens which could turn at any moment.
His only effort here was back in 2013 when he finished with a 12 under par total having opened with a 73. Fleetwood, Grace, Westwood, Willett, Kaymer, Stenson, Furyk, Garcia and Els are just some of the names who have won at this venue down the years and the calibre of winner hasn't diminished since the field size has gotten bigger. Rose had a good Ryder Cup as a veteran and his name would not look out of his place on the winner's rota here in Sun City.
Brandon Grace at 30/1 (Eight Places)
Fleetwood has obvious claims but was 11/1 in a weaker contest last year so the 15/2 on offer doesn't quite look the best option for someone who has had five weeks off. I much prefer Max Homa for who this test must suit given his credentials from tee to green.
However, eight weeks off for the American from tournament golf is a worry and I can't quite take the plunge on someone who may just show an ounce of rust on Thursday. Robert MacIntyre is certainly one to keep an eye on following his best performance with the irons last time out in Qatar for three years.
You have to go back to the same event in 2020 to see a better display on approach and but for a bit of a mess around the greens there two weeks ago he could be coming here off the back of a victory.
Branden Grace has produced three or four efforts this season on the LIV circuit that would certainly give him a squeak here so I'm happy enough to get involved around the 33/1 mark. Grace won this back in 2017 and with three other top 10s posted since 2016 he has some of the best course form in the field bar Fleetwood.
Plenty who study these events week in week out use the tremendous service at Data Golf and it is worth noting that Grace's 3rd in Mayakoba in February, and his runner up finishes in Tulsa and DC in May are all considered better efforts that Fleetwood's victory here last year.
This is undoubtedly a tougher contest than last year but Grace certainly knows this course like the back of his hand and has produced here on many occasions. The Team Matchplay didn't go his way in Miami but a final round of 5 under par was a fine effort and he has the advantage of a recent competitive outing that Fleetwood, Homa and Thomas don't have.
He may have lost a little length over the past few years but he is an expert at hitting fairways and the 33/1 on offer looks worthy of investment.
Nicolai Højgaard at 25/1 (Eight Places)
I'll admit it's a tough one to crack this week and value doesn't leap off the page as much as it does some other weeks. This is an event almost always dominated by the best names in the game so it's difficult to see the prize go to anyone further down the betting board.
28/1 may not seem like huge value this week but long term I can't help but feel getting Nicolai Hojgaard at a bigger price than the likes of Aaron Rai and Jordan Smith will prove fruitful.
Since the Ryder Cup he played in Vegas then in Japan where his 31st placed finish at Narashino is fair enough given the tight tree lined layout wouldn't be to his liking. Sun City is tight enough also but his length and accuracy could prove to be really beneficial on a course that stretches towards 7900 yards, all be it at altitude. Nicolai really ought to have won the Czech Masters in August where a tremendous week from tee to green was cancelled out by a horror show on the greens.
He showed his versatility by finishing 5th the following week at Crans and in time it could prove there is no course that he can't tame. Personally I believe his ceiling to be much higher than Smith and Rai and I'd argue he's ahead of them on current ratings also.
Two previous efforts here haven't resulted in much but he's a much improved player even from this time last year and I expect the 22 year old to continue on his way and be a mainstay in future European Ryder Cup sides. His two wins to date at Al Hamra and Marco Simone have required long and straight driving to prevail and Sun City looks like another this talented Dane can take down.
