Niall Lyons has five tips for the Bermuda Championship in Bermuda.
Bermuda Championship 2023
The Butterfield Bermuda Championship is the penultimate event on the PGA Tour this season and with the final 125 in the Fedex standings ready to be confirmed over the next two weeks there is plenty to play for. For those on the bubble there is this then the RSM Classic to secure their tour cards.
The Port Royal Golf course here at Bermuda is a quaint one measuring short of 7000 yards. It is a very undulating track, similar to last week in that regard but it is much more exposed to the elements and the wind looks set to blow the hardest over the weekend.
It was maybe no surprise we got an Irish winner of this event last year as the elements played their part over the four days and I've no doubt they'll enter the equation once again here.
Butterfield Bermuda Championship Tips | Niall Lyons Golf Betting Tips
The course held the Grand Slam of Golf from 2009 to 2014 but it is the recent editions of this that we look to as this course has held the event for the past four years. An Irishman came out on top last year and prior to that an Irish Open winner in the shape of Lucas Herbert came out on top and he is well known for his credentials in the wind. If we can find some value about players with similar profiles then they'll surely be on the staking plan.
Davis Riley at 35/1 (Eight Places)
Davis Riley officially landed his first victory in only his second season on tour by winning the Zurich Classic alongside Nick Hardy back in April. It had been on the cards following an extremely impressive maiden season in 2022 where he went really close on a number of occasions.
One of those was in the windy state of Texas where he finished 4th at Colonial being among the best performers on the final day there in really tricky conditions. The week prior to that he had finished 13th at Southern Hills in the PGA and it's worth noting there on the Friday during the windiest conditions of the week he shot another fine round of 68. A win on the Korn Ferry Tour at San Antonio in Texas is another sign that Riley is more than comfortable in these conditions.
Since the win in New Orleans he hasn't kicked on but sitting 65th in the rankings he has plenty to play for over the next two weeks with a chance to get himself into Pebble Beach and the Genesis Invitational by finishing inside the top 60. His long game has been consistently solid throughout a quiet spell and if he can find some form on the greens he could bounce back easily and land a victory in a much weakened field compared to what he has been playing recently.
2.5pts each-way D.Riley 35/1 (1/5 8) Bet365 8 place market, William Hill
Justin Lower at 60/1 (Eight Places)
Justin Lower bounced back to some sort of form last week in Mexico finishing inside the top 25 and that looks perfect timing before heading to a track where he was played extremely well on previously. His effort in Mexico was his first top 25 finish since his 8th placed finish in the Rocket Mortgage in July and sitting at 107th in the rankings he has plenty to protect.
He should be ok for retaining his card but a trip to Bermuda is more than welcome. He fared extremely well in the worst of the winds last year and his record here is particularly eye catching. His positions at the end of each round here over the last two renewals read 4-6-6-17-8-15-9-8.
Two 65s last week all be it in easy conditions shows he may well have found form again with his best club (the putter) and he is more than equipped to continue that form here as the wind looks set to blow a bit harder over the weekend.
1.5pts each-way J.Lower 60/1 (1/5 8) Bet365 8 place market
Matthias Schmid at 60/1 (Eight Places)
Stewart Cink would be a danger in these conditions but having missed his last four cuts on the PGA Tour I expected to see bigger than the general 50/1 out there about him. Recent efforts on the Champions Tour have been fair enough but he doesn't look in hot enough form to land a PGA Tour victory in his 50s.
Matthias Schmid looks a much better option at slightly bigger odds. He can count himself unlucky not to have landed his first victory on either of the big tours when he was pipped in Spain by a charging Adrian Meronk. It wasn't without warning either as a 26th placed finish in the Shriners was a sign of what was to come.
A 15 under par total in Mexico last week is nothing to be ashamed of and I'd suggest the German is much more suited to this type of test in Bermuda. Twice the European Amateur Champion Schmid has an eye catching pedigree but it didn't quite go to plan in his first season on the PGA Tour.
A promising start to the year was made finishing 6th in the Californian desert but it took to July for him to land another top 20 at the 3M Open.
22nd followed at the Wyndham then 26th at the Shriners before the runner up in Spain. Signs are increasing that he is getting to grips with things and he'll need a huge effort over the next two weeks to get into the top 125. He was the leading amateur in the 2021 Open Championship and that type of pedigree may just be perfect for this coastal test at Port Royal.
1pt each-way M.Schmid 60/1 (1/5 8) Bet365 8 place market
Andrew Novak at 70/1 (Eight Places)
Andrew Novak has missed 5 of his last 7 cuts but it is worth noting he has been improving the last three weeks on the trot. The latest was a 51st placed finish at the Zozo Championship and there is reason to believe that in a much weaker contest this test should suit. His only win so far on the Korn Ferry Tour was on the coast in Florida when winning the Suncoast Classic back in 2020.
Last season all his best efforts came on the coast finishing 22nd at Mayakoba, 22nd in Puerto Rico and 11th in Punta Cana. This season top 20s all arrived first here in Bermuda then at Waialae and Pebble before landing a top 10 in Texas at San Antonio. With efforts improving over the last few weeks he is equipped to go even better in a much weaker contest and anything of 66/1 or above is worth chancing.
1pt each-way A.Novak 70/1 (1/5 8) Bet365 8 place market
Jason Dufner at 160/1 (Eight Places)
Finally I'll take a chance on the experience of Jason Dufner proving valuable if conditions get tough over the weekend. Sitting 159th in the rankings Dufner needs a good week to gain conditional status at the very least for next year and having made six of his last eight cuts on tour he's making a bold fist of gaining that status.
Things are beginning to look up for the 46-year-old and following a final round of 65 in Mexico he could be ready to kick on. This is a pretty weak affair for an end of season tour event and it represents a big chance for guys like Dufner to make their mark. It is one of the shortest golf courses on tour and that will play into his hands.
Should he manage to find form with the putter, a club that has tortured him his whole career, then he could be a very interesting sleeper around the 150/1 mark.
1pt each-way J.Dufner 160/1 (1/5 8) Bet365 8 place market
