Niall Lyons is backing four Ryder Cup stars to contend in the 2023 DP World Tour Championship in Dubai.
DP World Tour Championship
Rory McIlroy has already been crowned the Race to Dubai winner and whilst many, including me, will say it is much deserved it does however result in somewhat of an anti climax for that crown.
The Fedex finale on the PGA Tour is far from perfect, but it does produce a fair amount of drama no matter the format and it's a shame that there isn't some sort of scenario here that would even bring two or three other players into the equation.
DP World Tour Championship Tips | Niall Lyons Golf Betting Tips
If you go to Wentworth or a handful of other DPWT events the Race to Dubai is highly promoted, and I can't help but feel they've missed a trick here as the season race is already decided before they even reach the titled destination.
McIlroy undoubtedly deserves it given his golf this year, but golf ties itself in knots trying to 'entertain' and a big opportunity to do exactly that is missed this week. We do have the season ending event though which certainly provides enough entertainment for the average fan and the strong field will help matters.
Just six players, McIlroy, Rahm, Morikawa, Fitzpatrick, Willett and Stenson have shared the last 11 renewals of this fine event so clearly if you don't have a Major Championship already bagged, or an extremely bright future ahead of you, you need not apply to lifting this trophy on Sunday. Runner ups down the years since 2011 include Paul Lawrie, Justin Rose, Shane Lowry and Patrick Reed so the quality it takes to contend here can not be underestimated.
A glance further down the betting board may provide the odd bit of value, but the results themselves spell out that class sets itself apart in this event and we'll more than likely have a winner from one of the game's elite.
Stenson (twice), McIlroy (twice), Fitzpatrick (twice) and Rahm (three times) makes previous winners of this event much more likely to perform again and it isn't a big price that we have a repeat winner once again. Hovland, McIlroy and Rahm take up a huge chunk of the field book here in Dubai and with Rahm being the only one of the three who has had an outing since the Ryder Cup maybe he just edges things before the off.
McIlroy has the Race to Dubai sewn up and although it may be a stretch to say that may relieve him of a little motivation, it is certainly a possibility that the same fire as previous years doesn't materialise for a full four days. It has been an extremely tiring year for McIlroy and there would have been a time a few months ago where I maybe would have expected him to skip this event in favour of some down time with his family. However, his solid finish to the pgatour season and Ryder Cup heroics saw him a little rejuvenated and the Christmas break on the horizon will be a weight lifted I'm sure.
He copped for a lot of backlash and whispers pulling out of a designated event in April following previous comments he had made and around the time of the missed cut at Augusta looked a troubled figure. He turned it around halfway through the year though but having walked some hard yards this year I'd favour the other two favourites this week as the season draws to a close. It's hard to choose between them though and 5/1 the pair make little appeal and I'd rather find some quality at bigger prices to challenge them.
Tyrrell Hatton @ 16/1 (Five Places)
I'll start with Tyrrell Hatton who spurned a big chance during his last event at Wentworth when hitting the front early into his back nine on Sunday. Mistakes followed though and he was narrowly beaten in the end. It was certainly an opportunity spurned though and I expect him to bounce back and contend in a field of similar strength. Two runner up finishes here and a further three top 8s suggests he may follow in the likes of Justin Rose's and Ian Poulter's footsteps here in going mighty close on numerous occasions without getting over the line.
However, runner up to Scheffler at Sawgrass earlier in the year was just one in a number of near misses in some of the strongest fields of the season and having won in similar fields before he has nothing left to prove on this stage. Him and Fitzpatrick are without doubt the two biggest threats to the big three and I'm prepared to take the chance at 16/1 that Hatton can turn a year of near misses into a long awaited victory here at the Earth Course.
Shane Lowry @ 33/1 (Five Places)
The quality it takes to be a champion here must be noted and one further down the betting board that has to be included is Shane Lowry. The Irishman certainly didn't have the year he was hoping but despite all that 16th at the Masters, 12th at the USPGA and 20th at the US Open were examples of his class still playing out in the strongest of fields.
3rd at the K Club and a top 20 at Wentworth preceded his largely successful appearance at the Ryder Cup where plenty questioned his inclusion. He looked an intricate part of the team bonding and acted as a seasoned referee between McIlroy and various Americans when things got ugly there on Saturday evening.
"He's had his chances here, he's got his links form, he has the quality and at 33/1 he'll be a danger to the favourites."
— oddschecker (@oddschecker) November 14, 2023
@BetGolfWorld's attention is on Shane Lowry ahead of the DP World Tour Championship in Dubai pic.twitter.com/PFGBYDzS0J
He added 1.5pts to the tally as well on a week where everyone contributed. That week will have made Lowry feel like he belongs in that company again and could be just the tonic he needs to turn some decent form this year into something a little more special.
Lowry led here after day 1 in 2014 when eventually finishing 5th, he closed with a 63 in 2017 to be beaten by a shot and just two years ago he led at halfway. He has had chances here and with former Open winners Morikawa, McIlroy and Stenson winning five of these events, links form is certainly worth a look. Three time winner Jon Rahm has won on Irish Links whilst two time Champion Matt Fitzpatrick won the Dunhill Links just a few weeks ago.
2018 Dubai Champion Danny Willett has a win at the Dunhill Links tucked away also so anyone with this kind of pedigree certainly have an increased likelihood of contending. Lowry has shown enough here in Dubai down the years that he warrants a lot of respect and the 33/1 looks one of the better bets of the week.
Sepp Straka @ 40/1 (Five Places)
Vincent Norrman has a very bright future, but his present is extremely sunny right now also and he looks to have the perfect game to tame the Earth Course. Over time the 45/1+ about him here may look excellent but producing an effort good enough at this stage to beat the likes of Hovland, Rahm and McIlroy looks slightly beyond him and although I believe that price will be value over time, right now I think this may be a stretch.
Out of everyone, he'll be the one I kick myself about most should he go on to win. Tom Kim is another I expect big things of in the coming 12 months with his lack of length off the tee being the only issue around the Earth Course. At more than double his price Sepp Straka looks the better option at 40/1 and he'll enter my staking plan. Recent heroics have catapulted him into the limelight and I can't help but feel we'll be ahead of the curve backing him at these odds with the improvement still in him.
The Austrian is both long and straight from the tee which is a big advantage around here and ranking 23rd on the PGA Tour in strokes gained approach this season suggests he has all the tools to tame this course on debut. On the Friday evening at Wentworth in the fading light he hit his tee shot on the 17th in the trees then proceeded to make an eagle with his second ball on that monster par 5, and at that moment I noted him down for Dubai where when asked for the power he came up with the goods.
He has more distance in that tank and will feature on many bomber dominated leaderboards in the years to come. The runner up at Royal Liverpool is a great addition to the CV for this test and together with the John Deere victory and 7th at the USPGA he has produced three efforts already this year that would go a long way to winning this if reproduced. The win at the Honda Classic last year is another worthy of note as plenty of links specialists have won and gone well there down the years.
Robert MacIntyre @ 66/1 (Five Places)
I'll finish with a smaller stake on Robert MacIntyre who has shown glimpses around here to be worthy of betting at 66/1. After 16 rounds here at the Earth Course he has only twice been outside the top 25 at the end of those. 4th here in 2021 is his best effort and he's shown enough on links to suggest he has a similar profile to previous winners here.
He was an unlucky runner up to an inspired Rory McIlroy over the final few holes at the Renaissance in July and four made cuts from four at Open Championship with two top 10 finishes is more than a fair return in his short career to date. In fact he improves with the stronger fields just as we saw in Scotland in July and he has 11 made cuts from 12 in Major Championships.
That is a strong CV looking at previous winners and contenders here and it's worth nothing his win at Marco Simone was among the best field assembled there beating Fitzpatrick and McIlroy into 2nd and 4th.
Last week's total of 6 over is a shade worrying but the Gary Player course there is a tad claustrophobic and not entirely to his liking. At the Earth course here he can open his shoulders and a good week with the irons could see him get right into the mix.
