Niall Lyons has six tips for the RSM Classic in Georgia, United States.
RSM Classic 2023
The Plantation and Seaside courses in Sea Island provide the backdrop for the final excursion of the year for many of these pros and playing privileges are up for grabs for anyone in and around the 125-150 mark in the Fedex standings. Overall the new fall series can be considered a success, especially given the story it produced at the weekend with Camillo Villegas gaining his first victory for nine years.
RSM Classic Tips | Niall Lyons Golf Betting Tips
There is plenty still to play for though and we have a wealth of history and stats on this event to pour over. Playing in Sea Island often throws up local success stories and with more and more players basing themselves here there is an increasing chance each year that somebody who either grew up there or is currently based there will walk home with the spoils.
There are also a good deal of courses with similar characteristics that we can look to for some pointers. Coastal courses here in Sea Island often throw up similar results to the Sony at Waialae, the RBC at Harbour Town and a nod to form at PGA National that holds the Honda Classic is also worth considering.
Anyone coming from Bermuda can expect somewhat of a similar test also so consider those who played all four days there last week.
Ludvig Aberg to win at 14/1
I've been patiently waiting for a time to get fully on board with another Ludvig Aberg punt and this looks like the right week. Seaside tests may not prove to be his strongpoint over time but with length and accuracy in abundance he can tame any course and I'm chuffed with the 14/1 available. Aberg is a superstar in my eyes and it was less than two months ago that I backed him at 25s in a field against all other eleven of the European Ryder Cup stars at Wentworth.
Brian Harman is the only other player from the Ryder Cup in the field and the 14s looks too big to turn down. A few weeks ago he was 9/1 in Mexico with Cameron Young and Theegala in behind him in the betting. Theegala makes way for Harman here and we add Corey Conners and Russell Henley, but other than that not a whole pile of stronger contenders make the field. The Swede hasn't been outside the top 14 in his last seven events.
It's a remarkable run of form and performances such as those at Crans, Wentworth or Jackson would go a long way towards winning this event if reproduced. At World number 53 it is a matter of time before he enters the top 50, but doing so sooner will result in major exemptions.
He looks up to the task and a first PGA Tour victory looks imminent. Even though Brian Harman won the Open this year a general price of 16s against Aberg's top price of 14s just doesn't add up either now, or in the future. Capitalise on Aberg while you can is my advice, I don't think the same opportunities betting wise will be presenting themselves this time next year.
4pts WIN L.Aberg 14/1 (bet365 / General)
Ben Griffin at 70/1 (Eight Places)
I may be glutton for punishment in backing Ben Griffin but we shall go again following his heartbreaking finish to the Sanderson Farms which ended in him limping out of a five-man playoff following a bogey-bogey finish. He drove the ball incredibly poorly there over the final two days and just two weeks later he ranked 2nd in the field for driving accuracy at Narashino in the Zozo.
Oh, what would we have given for those fairways down the stretch at Jackson. Two middling results have followed in Mexico and Bermuda but there are reasons to suggest these tests suit as he's based here in Georgia. 12th at Waialae, 21st at PGA National and 3rd in Bermuda are all solid results in places where the wind blows and throw in a top 25 in his only trip to the Scottish Open a few months ago and we have someone who is comfortable in these conditions.
Villegas kicked on from a near miss two weeks ago to land a victory and there's no doubt Griffin will learn from his late demise in the Sanderson so the next time he lands himself in contention things could prove to be a lot calmer.
1pt each-way B.Griffin 70/1 (1/5 8) bet365 8 place market
Ben Martin at 175/1 (Eight Places)
Ben Martin grew up around these parts and he's one of the local players I'm more than happy to get involved with at big prices following a fair effort last week in Bermuda. Rounds of 65 and 66 helped him towards a top 30 at Port Royal and he should arrive here with a little confidence from that effort.
He was certainly in better form at the start of the year and a look to his results suggest his best efforts are more likely to come where wind enters the equation. 10th in the windy state of Texas in April was preceeded by 8th in PuntaCana, 5th at the Honda and 13th at Pebble Beach.
These are the type of venues that he tends to play well on and with three top 25 finishes here he could quite easily kick on from last weeks result. He has a neat and tidy long game which will suit this venue even more so than last weeks and at 175/1 I'll happily pay to find out.
1pt each-way B.Martin 175/1 (1/5 8) bet365 8 place market
Webb Simpson at 100/1 (Eight Places)
Webb Simpson has found some spiritual homes across the PGA Tour that play exactly to his strengths and these two courses are right up there among the rest. Sedgefield and Harbour Town are another two whilst solid results also appear at the likes of Waialae. It was a seasonal trait of many punters to back Simpson at these venues, and it very rarely went wrong.
The last couple of years have been different, however, but it's worth noting he managed a 5th place at the Wyndham in August, following little or no signs in the lead in. Last time out at the Shriners he opened with rounds of 69-68-68, rounds which certainly suggest a man of his talent can't be a million miles off contending.
It was a final round of 63 that catapulted him to 5th at the Wyndham and it's worth noting now that seven of his last 10 tournament rounds have been in the 60s. That's just about enough to convince me to get involved with someone who has two runner up finishes and a 3rd placed finish here in Sea Island.
1pt each-way W.Simpson 100/1 (1/5 8) William Hill
Kramer Hickok at 200/1 (Eight Places)
I'm surprised we see such a big price about Kramer Hickok this week following two top 15 finishes in Mexico and Bermuda. Last week's 13th didn't move him a whole pile in the rankings and he'll need more if he's to get into the top 125 and earn his card for next year.
The signs were good in Mexico and a fair performance at Port Royal could have been predicted having finished 8th there back in 2021. Besides Bermuda, he has a host of strong finishes on the courses we look to this week.
14th at this years Honda as well as two top 20s the last couple of years at the Sony Open suggest he is well equipped for tests such as these. With plenty of motivation to perform well here again this week with his card on the line I'm surprised 200/1 is readily available.
1pt each-way K.Hickok 200/1 1/5 8 (Paddy Power, William Hill)
Fred Biondi at 400/1 (Eight Places)
Fred Biondi isn't a name many will be familiar with but a hugely impressive Amateur career is now finished as he ploughs his way in the professional world. This is his 4th start on the trot in this Fall Series and last week he gained his first top 20 in Bermuda.
Biondi hails from the University of Florida where he was instrumental in winning the NCAA Championship for the Gators this year. He also won the individual Championship joining the likes of Matthew Wolff, Max Homa, Luke Donald and Phil Mickelson. Plenty of winners of that event have achieved great things on tour and Biondi looks like someone who could take to life on tour like a duck to water.
He'll need to take his chances with no status though but having played plenty of golf in the windy state of Florida he could join previous golfers who have tasted success at the likes of PGA National and here in Sea Island. He will be well equipped, and he showed that last week at the Bermuda Championship on route to finishing 13th.
It was a brave decision to go pro, sacrificing his place at the Masters next April, but he said he thought it was 'the best way to get on to the PGA Tour the quickest'. It was a bold statement from the Brazilian but a string of missed cuts on the Korn Ferry Tour has him headed to PGA Tour Q School. A sponsor exemption got him into the Bermuda Championship and he took full advantage.
Only a matter of months ago he won the Augusta Haskins Award beating the likes of Adrien Dumont De Chassart, who would be nowhere near the 300/1+ price we see here for the Brazilian had he been in the field. With fellow South American Camillo Villegas winning last week he may take a lot of inspiration from that so we'll chance it at a huge price.
1pt each-way F.Biondi 400/1 (1/5 8) William Hill
