Niall Lyons has four tips for the Australian PGA Championship in Brisbane.
Australian PGA Championship
The Australian PGA is akin to Noel Gallagher trudging off stage left and coming back on two minutes later to belt out 'Don't Look Back In Anger'. No sooner has the curtain come down on the 2023 season that the 2024 one begins but there's no denying the Morning Glory hit still brings the house down. Australian events at this time of year are fascinating affairs, often windy with sometimes very fiery golf courses.
Australian PGA Championship Tips | Niall Lyons Golf Betting Tips
The wind looks set to play its part over the first couple of days and we may even see some rain as well. The Queensland golf course presents wide fairways and large greens with the main aim being to steer clear from the bunkers that give a fair protection to those greens.
Joaquin Niemann to Win At 14/1
Similar to last week in Dubai a fair slice of the market is taken up by the favourites with five golfers priced 12/1 or shorter. Of those five it is very difficult to choose between them and thus renders them all almost impossible to back. It's quite easy to turn Smith down at 4/1 given the quality in behind but I'm a little surprised at just how short Cam Davis, Adam Scott and Adrian Meronk are.
I'd make every argument that Joaquin Niemann should slot in as third favourite and for that reason I'm happy to get involved at 14/1. The Chilean is winless since his spectacular victory at Riviera in the Spring of 2022 and he certainly looks like one whose game has not benefitted from the move to the LIV tour.
He certainly hasn't been disgraced though with Torque finishing 3rd in the Team event and himself ramping up efforts towards the end with two top tens in last three then a 3rd placed effort in the final round of stroke play in Miami. I can't help but feel he looks a little demotivated by his new tour but currently ranked 87th in the world he will need to make events like this pay and you may see a rejuvenated Niemann this week in Australia.
Overall the test should suit with short game and scrambling looking quite important, especially over the opening couple of days. He certainly hasn't had the best year but 6th favourite doesn't look right here given his potential.
3.5pts J.Niemann 14/1 (General)
Robert MacIntyre at 25/1 (Eight Places)
The wind will keep them honest for the first couple of days here in Queensland and those coming from Dubai could possibly have an advantage. The curtain may have come down on the 2023 season but this event is well sought after and has been the kick start to many good years on the PGA Tour for the winners.
Robert MacIntyre arrives off a top 20 in the 2023 closer in Dubai and should be suited by the wider fairways here. He should also be suited by the wind that looks set to blow on the opening couple of days which should bring scrambling and bunker play to the fore. The Scot ranked 17th on the DPWT in scrambling last season and 13th in Sand Saves.
He adapts extremely well to these conditions and of course he has the ability to have a tremendous week on the greens. This is his first trip to this event but he has family in Australia and I expect him to give a bold account.
2.5pts each-way R.MacIntyre 25/1 (1/5 8) Bet365 8 place market
Sean Crocker at 50/1 (Seven Places)
Sean Crocker has shown enough in recent weeks to warrant plenty of respect here in Australia and with his long game performing extremely well he makes the staking plan at 50/1. Crocker makes his gains by hitting the ball an absolute mile but his approach play recently is eye catching and that could make the difference in conditions that will suit.
His iron play is almost at the level it was whenever he won at Fairmont St Andrews last year edging out Eddie Pepperell in the Hero Open. Recently he ranked 8th on approach at the Nedbank when posting a top 20 finish. Prior to that he ranked 18th in the same department in Qatar when finishing 9th, and the week before that he ranked 4th with his irons.
In the weeks leading up to his win last July in Scotland he posted a couple of similar efforts with his iron play. That links win should provide good experience for what is ahead this week and he has the talent to upset the bigger names in front of him in the market.
2pts each-way S.Crocker 50/1 (1/5 7) Paddypower
Jeffrey Guan at 200/1 (Eight Places)
Jeffrey Guan is well known to many students of the game but the casual fan will be unaware of this 19 year old's potential. A recent recipient of the Cameron Smith scholarship, Guan can be expected to kick on now he has turned professional and a jaunt among this company should do wonders for his confidence.
He turned pro at the start of November and after a missed cut in the Queensland PGA bounced back in fine style finishing with two 68s in Victoria to land a tie for 5th. He has a glittering amateur career, including winning the Australian Boys Amateur Championship and it'd be no surprise to me should he hit the ground running in stronger field events.
1pt each-way J.Guan 200/1 (1/5 8) Bet365 8 place market
