Niall Lyons has five tips for the South African Open in Johannesburg.
South African Open
For the second year we head to the Blair Atholl Golf estate in Johannesburg for the South African Open. In 2021 the course held a Sunshine Tour event, one in which Thriston Lawrence finished 6th, but shot the lowest round of the week in doing so.
The following year he shot a 16 under par total to take down his home Open. This course remarkably is well over 8000 yards on the scorecard and despite the altitude still is an extremely long layout.
South African Open Tips | Niall Lyons Golf Betting Tips
That being said length off the tee wasn't totally necessary as the bulk of Lawrence's winning score was built through his work around and on the greens. Chase Hanna headed the distance charts last year here and finished 5th whilst the 4th longest Clement Sordet finished 2nd.
That is one renewal, and enough to suggest for me length is still the most important aspect here and unless you turn up with a sparkling short game the shorter hitters will find it tough.
Matti Schmid at 20/1 (Eight Places)
Matti Schmid may prove over time to be one of the most talented sorts in this field and at 20/1 or bigger he looks worth siding with as the potential upside is huge. We went close with him a few weeks ago in Bermuda where he finished 3rd behind Villegas and Noren which was only a few weeks removed from a runner up finish in Andalucia where he was pipped by a closing 66 by Adrian Meronk.
He is keeping good company and learning plenty about his game and although I'd prefer him in slightly tougher or windier conditions to what we see this week I'm happy to give him a go. 26th at the Shriners and 38th in Mexico are fine efforts and these come after previous top 25 finishes on the PGA Tour earlier in the year at the 3M Open and the Wyndham. The German clearly belongs in this company and I'd argue he should be 4th favourite behind the three South Africans.
2.5pts each-way M.Schmid 20/1 (1/5 8) Bet365 8 place market
Hennie du Plessis at 22/1 (Eight Places)
South Africans have won this event the last five times on the trot and generally speaking they dominate their home events. Last week was no different with Burmester coming out on top. Despite some juicier prices being snapped up early doors about Hennie Du Plessis I feel he is one of the more likelier homegrown players to come out on top here and around the 22/1 mark looks fair.
Du Plessis ranked 5th from tee to green last week but a poor week on the greens somewhat scuppered his chances of improving on his top 25 finish. 9th here in December of last year, then 2nd at Jonsson Workwear Open and 6th at the Nedbank earlier this month shows us what we already know in that hos best efforts are left to his home country.
Steyn City was right up his street dominated by the longer hitters and he could improve on the runner up spot there with another course here that should suit his swash buckling style with the driver. Burmester rates a very solid favourite at 6/1 and could easily oblige again but if there is any hangover from last week Du Plessis looks like one of the stronger candidates off the tee to capitalise.
2.5pts each-way Hennie du Plessis 22/1 (1/5 8) Bet365 8 place market
Scott Jamieson 40/1 (Eight Places)
Andy Sullivan may be one to watch following his top 15 finish last week and with a win already at this event back in 2015 he could gain some confidence. I'd want a slightly bigger price than what's on offer though given the task ahead of him here length wise off the tee.
The only nationality to wrestle this off the South African's in the last eight years have been the English so it may pay to concentrate on those but I'll opt for a Scot whose last win came in South Africa back in 2012. Nearly a month off following his heroics in
Qatar to gain his card when finishing 3rd wasn't exactly ideal but two 67s in the middle of the Joburg event suggest he hasn't lost that game that almost carried him to victory in Qatar. He gives the ball a fair whack these days so the length of this course shouldn't be too big of a problem for him.
Shot game was a big part of the equation for Lawrence last year and Jamieson has been pretty sharp in that department both on and around the greens this year. 9th on the greens last week was another good effort with the putter and should his irons improve a little from last week he'll look a nice bet around the 40/1 mark.
1.5pts each-way S.Jamieson 40/1 (1/5 8) Bet365 8 place market, Coral, Ladbrokes
Manuel Elvira 100/1 (Six Places)
Plenty who played last week stay in South Africa but it must be said the two tests are extremely different and I wouldn't be too keen on putting too much emphasis on last weeks result. Instead I'll look to those who hit the ball far and have a decent short game and one who fits the bill is Manuel Elvira.
With his brother Nacho already a DPWT stalwart Manuel will look to follow in his footsteps following a hugely consistent year on the Challenge circuit that saw him head the standings into the final event in Mallorca. He hit the ball a mile last week and ranked 17th in strokes gained off the tee.
10th on approach, 12th around the greens and 31st with the putter was an extremely fair effort on only his 3rd DPWT start. Those stats we can maybe take with a pinch of salt but he managed 10th place and I'd say Blair Atholl will be a much more suitable venue than last week. He may just hit the ground running and he will have learned a fair bit about himself last week in Joburg.
1pt each-way M.Elvira 100/1 (1/5 6) Unibet
Santiago Tarrio 150/1 (Eight Places)
With a few of the holes here unreachable even for the longest in the field I'm happy to add one of the shorter hitters as there was a handful of these who made the frame last year. Santiago Tarrio Ben wasn't exactly suited to last weeks test, and although on paper this venue won't suit either I'm prepared to give him the chance simply on his approach play and form with the putter.
He is in the top 8 on the greens over the last two months and inside the top 25 in the same period for approach play. He lacks a fair bit of distance off the tee but can plod his way around here and make a score. The three week break for Ben probably didn't come at the right time having produced his best effort on tour for a few years in Qatar finishing 6th. Maybe there was a little rust last week and he'll slip back into those figures he was producing prior to Joburg.
1pt each-way S.Tarrio 150/1 (1/5 8) Bet365 8 place market
