Alfred Dunhill Championship Tips, Preview, Betting Odds & Tee Times

The penultimate week of the year takes place at the special Leopard Creek Golf Club in South Africa on the edge of the Kruger National Park. The course went under the knife in 2017 with a change in grass from Kikuyu to Cynodon as well as the greens being changed to Bermuda from Bentgrass. We've seen the course firm up as a result and the last few renewals have been much tougher than those that went before.

Larrazabal won in 2019 with a score of 8 under limping home in the end struggling in the conditions. Sandwiched either side of the Spaniard have been Lipsky and Bezuidenhout both winning at 14 under par, considerably less than the 20 under par+ scores that won two of the previous three. 18 under was the total last year and this course clearly has a little more bite to it than prior to the renovation.

Alfred Dunhill Championship Tips | Niall Lyons Golf Betting Tips

It remains to be seen but with six South African winners of this event the six years prior to the course restoration, and only two in the last four post renovation, there could be a sway to a more eclectic mix of winners here in the future with the removal of the Kikuyu rough. Fairways are notoriously difficult to find and it'll be those who can tick off plenty of greens in regulation or who bring a sharp short game to Leopard Creek who will be in the mix come Sunday.

Valderrama looks one course in particular to look to when searching for a correlating course. Christian Bezuidenhout won at Valderrama then here back in 2020 whilst 2022 Valderrama Champion Adrian Otaegui finished runner up here having won in Spain a few weeks previous. With this course having toughened up in recent years it makes sense than one of the more challenging courses down the years lends some similarities to Leopard Creek.

Jeff Winther at 50/1 (Eight Places)

A trip to a course where short game remains very important should be welcome for Jeff Winther and despite nothing much of note done here down the years by the Dane I believe he is ready to take down an event of this stature. Since third week in September Winther has produced four performances that pound for pound would go very close to winning an event of this quality.

His 10th place at the Dunhill Links included three of the victorious Ryder Cup team as well as various other golfers ranked much better than him, whilst his runner up in France was his best effort of the season. It got him all the way to Dubai where a third round of 64 saw him lie 4th heading into the final day.

A round 2 pairing with Lowry, a round 3 pairing with Rahm and a final round alongside Viktor Hovland may prove extremely beneficial for Winther who after a 9th placed finish there may just feel like he belongs in the higher echelons of European Golf.

He suffers from a lack of distance off the tee and subsequently will struggle on a handful of layouts each year, but his finish in Dubai shows he is versatile and more importantly shows what kind of state the rest of his game is in. He gets better the closer he gets to the green and this looks a sound game to be heading to Leopard Creek with. 

2.5pts each-way J.Winther  50/1  (1/5 8) Bet365 8 place market

Alexander Levy at 150/1 (Seven Places)

One at triple figures this week who is crying out to be backed is Alexander Levy. The Frenchman didn't manage to retain his card and he must take advantage of events such as these if he's to climb the ladder once again. 66 and 67 bookended his effort in Australia last week and an 8th place there in a field of that quality is fairly eye catching. If he can repeat that feat it'd go a long way to winning at Leopard Creek.

He finished 6th here back in 2020 which is another encouraging sign as form on the revamped layout is a huge positive. Levy is a dogged competitor whenever he gets into contention and should he kick on from that effort last week he holds a major chance of upsetting the odds. Those odds, of 150/1 are hugely surprising to me and he rates as probably the best bet of the week.

2pts each-way A.Levy  150/1  (1/5 7) Paddy Power

Andy Sullivan at 66/1 (Eight Places)

Andy Sullivan's trips here to Leopard Creek have been largely successful finishing 3rd back in 2012 then 14th the following year. A missed cut a year later is the last time we have seen him here and his nine year absence from Leopard Creek comes to an end this week.

There is plenty to like about his chances too. I was quite tempted last week to fire him in the staking plan following his 12th place in Joburg but the course fit didn't quite suit. Nevertheless he shot an opening 67 and although things went a little downhill from there his finish of 38th on a course as long as that is encouraging.

On his day Sullivan's big weapon is his putter and should it click this week he would have the confidence to mix it with the market leaders. Four previous top 20s at Valderrama are a huge positive and having won twice in South Africa before he looks ready for a big week.

1.5pts each-way A.Sullivan  66/1  (1/5 8) Bet365 8 place market

Aaron Cockerill at 80/1 (Eight Places)

Aaron Cockerill went close for us at triple figures earlier in the year when he was edged out in Japan by Lucas Herbert and the time looks right to play him again around the 80/1 mark this week. The Canadian endured a tough Summer having gone very well early in the season.

His last three weeks have been encouraging though improving each time and making the cut in all three, with the latest being a top 25 finish last week. That was his best effort since a top 10 in the Soudal Open back in May. Roads now lead to Leopard Creek where he finished 4th last year and he certainly prefers a venue where short game comes more to the foreground.

That is the case this week and with the Canadians having had a great year on the PGA Tour maybe it's time for Cockerill to add his name to the winners list before 2023 is closed out.

1.25pts each-way A.Cockerill  80/1  (1/5 8) Bet365 8 place market

Mike Lorenzo Vera at 100/1 (Eight Places)

Following an encouraging few weeks in Spain for Mike Lorenzo Vera he unfortunately and somewhat surprisingly missed the cut in Qatar, an event he has a fairly decent record in. His final round of 67 at the Dunhill Links paved way for the four rounds in the 60s at Club De Campo and his mid table finish at Sotogrande the next week included a best of the day second round of 65.

Seven of his last eleven rounds of golf have been in the 60s, including two 65s in that period. The Frenchman has had a turn in fortune and a return to Leopard Creek where his only appearance yielded a top ten should be seen as a positive. A runner up finish at Valderrama back in 2019 fits the bill for some recent winners here and upwards of 125/1 looks appealing. 

1pt each-way M.Lorenzo Vera  100/1  (1/5 8) Bet365 8 place market, Sky Bet