Niall Lyons has five outright tips for the Dubai Desert Classic.
Dubai Desert Classic - Winner
The Majlis course here in Dubai is well known to all DPWT fans and usually provides an entertaining finish with an exciting final par fibe where just about anything can happen.
Down the years no particular statistic stands much taller than any others but SG off the tee certainly appears to be the most important. McIlroy won last year finishing 2nd off the tee, and 4th from tee to green. Hovland was 2nd off the tee, and 3rd tee to green two years ago when winning.
Dubai Desert Classic Tips
- 2pts each-way N.Hojgaard 25/1 (1/4 6) Unibet, BetUK
- 1pt each-way L.Canter 50/1 (1/5 8) Paddy Power
- 1pt each-way A.Rozner 110/1 (1/4 5) BetVictor
Casey won the previous year having topped the tee to green stat. Arnaus was 3rd in 2020 topping the same stat so it would certainly suggest long and straight driving is a huge advantage. Plenty of contenders here have also finished low down the strokes gained approach stat for the week which is surprising as most weeks it's a decent barometer as to who contends, however, this course appears on the contrary.
Instead, a good driving game coupled with a solid putter makes for a good combination around here. The winners and placers here have been a 'who's who' of Open and Links specialists. 2018 Champion Haotong Li finished 3rd on his first trip over the Open.
2017 Champion and runner up Garcia and Stenson have long been Open experts. McIlroy, Woods, Els and O'Meara are other winners here that have held the Claret Jug aloft.
In 2013 and 2014 Stephen Gallacher went back to back here and one of his two other European Tour wins arrived at the Dunhill Links. Add in some correlation with Dom Pedro in Portugal and you have a base on which to work through the field.
Nicolai Hojgaard at 25/1 (Six Places)
Rory McIlroy has a couple of victories here and at around 7/2 rates a similar price as to what he was in last week's limited field. There is little doubt this place is ideal for him with a 10th place back in 2011 being his worst finish here in nine appearances.
Nevertheless, last week was more evidence that he often finds ways not to win, and with the three putt on the back nine then the wayward drive on the 72nd it was a very disappointing end for the Irishman. The reward just doesn't seem big enough around 7/2 and instead we'll look to find a couple who could challenge him or nick a place to end the week in profit.
Nicolai Hojgaard has already surpassed many expectations already, but his ceiling is far from reached yet and I'd rate him the fourth best player in this field whilst you'll see him around 7th or 8th in the betting.
Only once in the past four years has Nicolai managed to make the cut on his first outing of the year so last weeks 25th placed finish is little to worry about and a little bit of rust shaken off should be a positive. He hit the ball reasonably well at Dubai Creek with his short game not quite up to scratch.
I expect better this week and maybe a missed cut and a 38th placed finish here contributes a little to him being where is in the market. Nevertheless, bar the top three I'd argue he's more likely than the rest and certainly has recent experience of beating a field much stronger than this when he won the DP World Tour Championship back in November.
He is narrowly favoured ahead of Adrian Meronk who played extremely well last week and together with his top 20 at PGA National on debut last year there is a suggestion that this may be a very suitable test.
Laurie Canter at 50/1 (Eight Places)
Laurie Canter had an eventful finish to 2023 and there is plenty to suggest that some of the company he has been keeping on the LIV tour has proven beneficial and he is ready to make his on the DPWT. 4th at the Australian Open alongside Adam Scott and in behind the likes of Min Woo Lee and Joaquin Niemann was a fine effort but the following week looked set to haunt him.
He missed a five-footer to qualify for the 2024 LIV season and went on hit a water a ball on the following playoff hole to bow out of the Promotions event.
With the rewards there that would have been enough to send anyone to the brink emotionally but he bounced back in superb fashion the following week finishing runner up to Oosthuizen in Mauritius with the South African only beating Canter's score on one of the four days.
That effort was evidence that Canter is made of stern stuff and although I'd have preferred for him to have a tournament under his belt in 2024, his 4th place here back in 2021 and a runner up at Dom Pedro in 2020 is enough for me to get involved at 66/1.
Antoine Rozner at 110/1 (Five Places)
Antoine Rozner already has a win in Dubai and it may prove beneficial to side with him given his long game was in fair shape last week. It was nothing special, but the one part of the game that curtailed his scores at Dubai Creek was his putting. That can turn in a flash and with winds which often pick up in the afternoon here he could be one who could score well in the benign and trickier conditions.
The Frenchman's other wins have come in Qatar and Mauritius so he has the perfect CV for a test such as this. He finished 9th here back in 2021 and with another three top tens across the Dunhill Links and Dom Pedro it would be no surprise to see him bounce back to a much better finish should the putter learn from being put on the naughty step.
Francesco Molinari at 125/1 (Five Places)
Francesco Molinari finished off his week at Dubai Creek last Sunday with the lowest round score of 63 and I'm surprised he hasn't taken more of a dive in the market. The Italian played well through the bag last week and ranking 7th on the greens is a huge positive. Should he repeat that performance with the putter then Molinari could be a contender once again. He lacks a bit of distance here from the tee but still ranked inside the top 20 for strokes gained off the tee last week.
He missed the cut here last year with that being his first trip here since 2014. Two top 20s prior to that and his Open victory spells that he wouldn't look out of place on the leaderboard here come the weekend. He is preferred slightly to former winner Haotong Li who also bounced to form last week in Dubai.
Jeff Winther at 100/1 (Eight Places)
Jeff Winther is another at triple figures worth chancing given that if McIlroy obliges we will be playing for the places. Winther would have made that frame last week but for a horror show in round three where he carded five bogeys and three double bogeys.
However, in his other three rounds there was just one deviation over par. 66, 67 and 68 made up rounds one, two and four and the Dane managed a top 25 finish.
He has five top 11 finishes in his last 10 events and finished off 2023 impressively with a top 10 in a strong field at the DP World Tour Championship, and 11th in Mauritius. He is another who lacks the power off the tee here but if he keeps it in play his short game could prove significant and he certainly has the chance of getting involved over the weekend around the 125/1 mark.
