The Genesis Invitational Tips, Preview, Betting Odds & Tee Times

The 3rd of 8 designated events on tour this season sees the top 50 from last years Fedex Cup gain a guaranteed invite. Other criteria will see the players list rise to between 70-80 players. Not many will turn down the chance to play this event, especially now Tiger Woods has announced his return and will tee it up as well as providing host duties for the week.

McIlroy returns this week following a disappointing result at Pebble Beach. Scheffler beats him to the jolly tag after some putting woes on Sunday somewhat scuppered his chances of landing a 3rd Phoenix victory. Mathieu Pavon qualifies but is in the remarkable position to be able to turn down events of this magnitude. 

The Genesis Invitational Tips

• 3pts each-way L.Aberg  22/1  (1/5 7) Sky Bet
• 2pts each-way J.Thomas  20/1  (1/5 7) Paddy Power
• 1.5pts each-way T.Fleetwood  33/1  (1/5 7) Sky Bet, Paddy Power
• 0.75pt each-way C.Bezuidenhout  125/1  (1/5 7) Paddy Power

Undoubtedly the one thing that pops up here with winners in contenders is previous form around Augusta National. Rahm (2023), Scott (2020 & 2005), Watson (2018, 2016 & 2014), Johnson (2017) Mickelson (2009 & 2008), Weir (2004 & 2003), Faldo (1997) and Stadler (1996) are just some of the winners here who have also won the Masters. Runners up at the Masters Ernie Els, Len Mattiace and Chip Beck have also managed wins around here so ignore Augusta form at your peril.

Genesis Invitational Players & Key Stats 

It is no surprise that Augusta form marries up here with the importance on a solid tee to green game, specifically on approach play and around the greens. Each of the last two winners here, Rahm and Niemann, have both topped the strokes gained approach stat for the week.

In terms of work around the green the leader in that department for the week, or the runner up has finished inside the top five each of the last four years.

Driving distance helps, but being average length off the tee is no disadvantage. However, winners like Rahm, Niemann, Watson, DJ and Holmes down the years certainly suggests it will be a slugger to come out on top.

Of the 26 golfers who have made the frame down these last four years only six have finished outside the top 20 in GIR for the week. The long game is all important at Riviera and it'll pay to concentrate on those who make their gains from tee to green. 

For more detailed stats tables guiding Niall's Genesis tips, click here.

Ludvig Aberg at 22/1 (Seven Places)

Ludvig Aberg continues to impress, even folk like me who were long since convinced that the tall Swede was the next Saviour. He has played in 15 PGA Tour events, with a victory at the RSM, two runner up finishes and a further three top tens. In the same period he landed a victory at one of the most prestigious DPWT venues when he won in Crans at the European Masters.

Leading heading into the final day at Wentworth was another feather in his cap given the entire European Ryder Cup team was in attendance. The change in conditions there to cold, wet and windy on the final day didn't suit either. Overall, together with his successful Ryder Cup appearance Ludvig Aberg has burst onto the scene faster and brighter than anyone else I can remember bar Tiger.

Normally here I'd look to some Augusta form and players who perform well around the greens. If there's a weakness in Ludvig's game, and it's a big 'if' then it'll be his chipping. This is a strategic golf course with angles and dog legs, similar to Wentworth in many ways. Aberg doesn't have the things going for him on paper similar to the likes of Homa or Finau around here for example, but his game transcends any historical aspects we look to for this event.

9th on Poa Annua greens at Torrey is a positive, and his runner up at Pebble shows just how versatile he is. He fits the bill of previous winners like Rahm, Johnson and Watson being an absolute slugger off the tee. I'll be a little bit bullish here and tell you I'm riding this Aberg train to Majors and beyond.

There is no stopping this kid, and coolness personified suggests to me he will achieve more than most in the game. He sits no bigger than 22/1 for the Masters in April, and although I think he's capable there on debut, there is little doubt the 22/1 this week is a much better bet.

3pts each-way L.Aberg  22/1  (1/5 7) Sky Bet

Justin Thomas at 20/1 (Seven Places)

Tony Finau continues to hit the ball really well and must be considered back on a course he has played well on multiple times. The putter is the nightmare in the current story and I'm not falling over myself to bet him with that glaring problem most weeks now. It cost him when we were on at Torrey Pines and confidence appears to be in the gutter with that club.

Cameron Young looks to be edging ever closer to that elusive victory but his work around the greens is enough of a concern to avoid betting him at Riviera. Justin Thomas has a runner up and a further two top tens here in his last six appearances and was criminally underrated by some bookmakers this week on first show.

Make no mistake, Thomas is back to somewhere nearing his best and when in the throws of this kind of form previously we'd have seen no bigger than 14/1 in a test and field such as this. His long game was in fair shape once again last week in Scottsdale and a better week on the greens may have seen him in contention there.

His 12th placed finish last week adds to his 6th at Pebble and 3rd at the Amex and together with three top 5 finishes at the back end of last year he looks to have overcome the issues he faced last year pretty quickly.

Since I started writing the insane quotes of 33/1 have disappeared, but anything of 20/1 or above for the 2022 PGA winner is a little too big given Southern Hills looks like an interesting correlating course also. Thomas looks ready to step back into the ring with the games best and now is the time to capitalise. 

2pts each-way J.Thomas  20/1  (1/5 7) Paddy Power

Tommy Fleetwood at 33/1 (Seven Places)

Nicolai Hojgaard is another who has taken to PGA Tour life like a duck to water and Riviera should set up well for him. Adam Svensson is another who looks capable of getting into the mix following a top 10 here last year. On any given week his approach play can compete with some of the best in the game and whenever the rest of his game marries with his iron play then he'll be a dangerous opponent.

Tommy Fleetwood at 33/1 is preferred with the Englishman having knocked on the door on this side of the Atlantic many times without it ever having been opened. Three winless years on the DPWT between 2014 - 2016 would have had you thinking similar that he wasn't going to realise some of his potential. However, it all changed in the following years and prestigious victories have followed.

Similar is playing out on the PGA Tour but there is little doubt in my mind at some stage he will get over that line. Holing enough putts down the back nine has been a problem for him but that changed in Dubai whenever he holed a miler of 17 and another clutch putt on 18 to overcome Rory McIlroy. McIlroy won the following week so the form has held up and in Fleetwood we have an experienced sort who can follow in Faldo's footsteps here and win at Riviera.

Max Homa has an excellent record around here and maybe we should have been alive to his chances at the Nedbank last November, another course that uses Kikuyu grass. Fleetwood has two victories there and can take inspiration from Pavon winning at Torrey Pines a few weeks ago.

1.5pts each-way T.Fleetwood  33/1  (1/5 7) Sky Bet, Paddy Power

Christiaan Bezuidenhout at 125/1 (Seven Places)

With the run of triple figure winners continuing on the PGA Tour I'll include Christiaan Bezuidenhout at anything above 100/1. The South African will have plenty experience on this type of grass and a win at the Gary Player CC is beneficial when heading to a course that requires fair deal of strategy just like in Sun City.

He went well in his home country at the back end of last year and started this year in blistering fashion when almost winning the American Express being pipped by the fairytale story of the year thus far in Nick Dunlap. 20th at Pebble and 28th last week at Scottsdale are fair results but most notably has ranked inside the top ten in strokes gained approach for those events.

His approach play was fine in the Californian Desert ranking 6th in that department for the week and he undoubtedly comes here with some of the best form in the field with the irons. He doesn't have the distance off the tee like most of the previous winners here but if he can lead the GIR stat for the week he may find himself in the final few groups on Sunday. 

0.75pt each-way C.Bezuidenhout  125/1  (1/5 7) Paddy Power