Mexico Open Tips, Preview, Betting Odds & Tee Times

Tony Finau is the headline player here this week as he bids to win back to back here having been runner up the year before. Nicolai Hojgaard continues his journey on the PGA Tour, a successful one to date whilst Will Zalatoris is a late withdrawal following his runner up finish at Riviera. 

With only two editions of this event we don't have a lot of history to fall back on but Rahm and Finau have shared the top two positions for the past two years. Rahm was strong favourite on both occasions and it was evident the best players rose to the top.

Mexico Open Tips

• 2pts each-way E.Van Rooyen  33/1  (1/5 8) Paddy Power, William Hill
• 2pts each-way T.Pendrith  30/1  (1/5 8) 888sport
• 1.5pts each-way Parker Coody  125/1  (1/5 7) Paddy Power
• 1.5pts each-way J.Knapp  50/1  (1/5 6) Sky Bet
• 1.5pts each-way S.Stevens  85/1  (1/5 8) 888sport
• 0.75pt each-way K.Dougherty  250/1  (1/5 7) Paddy Power

What Rahm and Finau have in common is they both hit the ball a long way off the tee and with others in contention such as Kurt Kitayama and Cameron Champ we can safely assume the course lends itself to the longer hitters. It's clearly an opportunity for the better players in the game to land a victory and it'd be no surprise should the winner come from the top end of the market.

Mexico Open Stats & Course

You can find more course information and detailed stat trends for the last two editions of the tournament as part of Niall's first look for the Mexico Open published late last week.

Unlike Mayakoba this course is at sea level so the shorter hitters have a larger bridge to gap. A par 71 measuring close to 7500 yards suggests this will be dominated by the bigger hitters once again. With Paspalum fairways and greens a nod to form at Coco Beach and Corales could prove fruitful as well as results from San Antonio, another Norman designed course.

Rahm was the longest driver in the field when winning back in 2022 and the first and second last year both ranked in the top two for strokes gained off the tee. This is a course where length really pays and anyone who has prior form on Paspalum greens will be of particular interest. The majority of approach shots at Vidanta come from 175+ yards so look to those who gain on the field from those distances with the irons. 

Erik Van Rooyen at 33/1 (Eight Places)

Vincent Norrman is an interesting runner at a big enough price with his long game having been in decent shape the last few weeks only to be outdone by a nightmare with the putter. Olesen is in tremendous form but I don't know if a 40pt gap between the players is quite right. I'd much rather be backer of the Swede than the Dane at those prices. At just sub 20/1 Nicolai is a much better option than Olesen and having already won on Paspalum before is a big threat to Finau In Mexico.

MJ Daffue is another huge hitter off the tee who could contend should he manage a decent week with the putter. Michael Kim was also high up the list this week and makes plenty of appeal at bigger than 66/1. Nate Lashley who was 3rd at the Farmers and has a great record on Paspalum is another danger around the 50/1 mark. Instead I'm going to opt for a recent champion in this country in the shape of Erik Van Rooyen.

Van Rooyen captured the WWT Championship in November at the El Cardonal course and Vidanta should set up perfect for him now he arrives here a much improved golfer than April when he finished 33rd.

In this field over the past six months Van Rooyen ranks 7th from tee to green, 6th off the tee and 3rd on approach. That is a lethal combination around here and with large greens this plays even more into his hands as his weakness certainly lies with getting it up and down from greenside.

The South African was very emotional after his Mexico victory citing a very ill friend as motivation for that week. That close friend has since passed away and there's no doubt an ounce of perspective has helped Van Rooyen's game and another trip to this country may just prove as fruitful as the last time. 

2pts each-way E.Van Rooyen  33/1  (1/5 8) Paddy Power, William Hill

Taylor Pendrith at 30/1 (Eight Places)

Charley Hoffman posted an opening 69 at Riviera last week and signs were he was going to kick on from that performance in Arizona but it went somewhat downhill from there the rest of the week.

With only one top 10 at Riviera from 17 appearances that down the field effort may not be a sign of what is to come this week. His irons improve the longer the approach play distribution but I can't help but feel this title will go the way of someone who posts consistent tee to green numbers.

Taylor Pendrith is prefered at a shorter price to land his maiden tour victory. After a disappointing start and mid season in 2023 he got things together late on in the year finishing 3rd at the Shriners, 15th at the WWT Championship then 8th in Bermuda. This year has kicked off at even better pace with a 10th place in the Sony Open and 9th at the Farmers.

Both those show how versatile he can be with two contrasting courses but there's little doubt if he is to win it'll be on a bombers track. Vidanta looks perfect for him and he arrives in much better nick than when he landed here last April.

Whilst his approach play is around pgatour standard below 150 yards, he excels with the longer approach shots and nearly 70% approach shots here come from 175+ yards. Pendrith has hit form at the perfect time for a trip to Vidanta and I expect him to give a bold account this week.

2pts each-way T.Pendrith  30/1  (1/5 8) 888sport

Parker Coody at 125/1 (Seven Places)

Parker Coody didn't even have full status when he took to the Korn Ferry Tour last season and managed to finish inside the top 30 to gain his full PGA Tour card for 2024. The Grandson of 1971 Masters Champion Charles Coody, Parker and his brother Pierceson have big spikes to fill but they're used to the big occasion having caddied for their grandfather at the par 3 tournament at Augusta back in 2006.

Parker has now played five pgatour events, making the cut in three of them and most recently finishing 25th at Torrey Pines. Weekend partners of Patrick Cantlay and Ludvig Aberg in California will no doubt only serve to improve and motivate this talented 24 year old.

Ranking 6th off the tee and 7th on approach at the Farmers was an impressive effort in a field much stronger than the list we see in Mexico this week. This course should really play to his strengths and anything of 80/1 or above looks fair value.

1.5pts each-way Parker Coody  125/1  (1/5 7) Paddy Power

Jake Knapp at 50/1 (Six Places)

Rafael Campos has a good record on Paspalum courses and a recent top 20 at Torrey Pines suggests he could go well once again.

At anything of 40/1 or bigger though I'm happy to get involved with Jake Knapp. With Rahm and Finau dominating here over the past two years it is interesting to note than Finau has a great record around Torrey Pines without winning, whilst Rahm has won both the Farmers and the US Open there.

Knapp threatened to win at Torrey also finishing 3rd there and bar a miracle birdie on the last from Pavon he would have  been left feeling very frustrated finishing just one shot further behind what looked like a certain playoff. It's no surprise he played well there with his distance off the tee being a strong asset.

His iron play both that week then again at Scottsdale has been impressive and it hasn't taken him a long time to get used to life on tour.

A very impressive season on the Korn Ferry Tour last year earned his playing rights on the PGA Tour and there's little doubt the best venues for him will be where he can open his shoulders and let rip from the tee. This looks like a perfect chance and he'll be brimming with confidence following those last two efforts.

1.5pts each-way J.Knapp  50/1  (1/5 6) Sky Bet

Samuel Stevens at 85/1 (Eight Places)

Ryo Hisatsune has impressed in all grades to this point but shorter than 50/1 feels a little on the skinny side. At a much bigger price Samuel Stevens is preferred. He went well at another Normal design, San Antonio in Texas finishing runner up there last April being narrowly edged out by Corey Conners. Stevens strength undoubtedly lies around the greens with a lovely touch.

With large greens that isn't one of the key skill sets this week but he does hit the ball a fair whack off the tee and his approach play gets better in comparison to the field the further away the average approach shot is. He ranks 18th in proximity from 175-200 yards and 29th from 200+ both from the fairway.

Fairways are large here and with big landing zones it suits these types who really attack the ball with the driver. Stevens has started well this term making all four cuts and this course should suit him a lot more than those and the weaker field also improves his chances. 3rd and 15th in two Paspalum events to date means Stevens is well equipped to get involved in the finish here.

1.5pts each-way S.Stevens  85/1  (1/5 8) 888sport

Kevin Dougherty at 250/1 (Seven Places)

After years and years of toil and dedication Kevin Dougherty finally landed a pgatour card at the end of 2023. In his early years he had a close relationship with Rickie Fowler and having played college golf with Talor Gooch he had decent pedigree. It has been hard fought career to here with five seasons on the Korn Ferry Tour before finally landing his playing privileges for the main stage this year. Similar to Cameron Champ,

Dougherty is a monster off the tee and none more so was this on show than at Torrey Pines where he ranked 2nd OTT for the week alongside Hojgaard and just behind Schauffele. 50th there at the Farmers was a fair result for only his second PGA Tour event in the last six years. Now into his 30s Dougherty will be looking to make this year pay on the main stage despite not having landed a professional victory yet in his career.

It may be a tall order to win this but he went very close on a number of occasions on the Korn Ferry Tour last year and there's an argument that there isn't a course more suitable to his game there than this one at Vidanta. It's worth taking the risk at anything of 200/1 or above. 

0.75pt each-way K.Dougherty  250/1  (1/5 7) Paddy Power