Niall Lyons has three tips for the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Arnold Palmer Invitational
It will be interesting to see the set up of Bay Hill this time around following the furore about PGA National being much easier than previous years. Three of the last four here have been won in single digits under par though and providing the rain stays away we can guarantee a firm golf course with some juicy rough.
Arnold Palmer Invitational Tips
- 5pts Win S.Scheffler 13/2 bet365
- 2pts each-way M.Fitzpatrick 33/1 (1/5 7) Paddy Power
- 1.5pts each-way Cam Young 33/1 (1/5 7) Paddy Power
Bay Hill is one course that tests all facets of the game and you'll find it tough to get away with it if any single part of your game is not on point. That plays out in the stats and as you see below driving distance and driving accuracy are much the same. Kitayama and English both hit most fairways last year when finishing 1st and 2nd.
However, the second longest driver in the field was joint second in the shape of McIlroy. DeChambeau won in 2021 topping the driving distance stat also. 30% of approach shots here come in from 200+ yards so the iron game is key and it may pay to look to those who excel from those distances.
Unlike Mexico a few weeks ago though, much more danger awaits here with water and high rough gobbling up approach shots not hit perfectly. That means scrambling becomes a part also and the leader in that stat has featured in the top five two of the last three years.
Therefore, no part of the game can be neglected here and perhaps the best stat to look to will be tee to green. Five of the top 10 in that statistic made the frame here last year, three of the top 10 the year before, and five of the top 10 in 2021.
Tee to green experts excel here, whether making gains by distance or accuracy off the tee, and those who arrive in Florida without good numbers in this stat recently will struggle.
Previous Winners / Winning Score:
- 2023 - Kurt Kitayama (-9)
- 2022 - Scottie Scheffler (-5)
- 2021 - Bryson DeChambeau (-11)
- 2020 - Tyrell Hatton (-4)
- 2019 - Francesco Molinari (-12)
Arnold Palmer Invitational Stats & Course
Subscribers of Oddschecker Unlimited would have received course information and detailed stat trends for the last three editions of the Arnold Palmer Invitational as part of Niall's first look for the tournament last Friday.
Scottie Scheffler at 13/2
This looks like the perfect opportunity to back Scottie Scheffler to land his second victory at Bay Hill and with many towards the top of the market not exactly firing it's a confident selection. McIlroy arrives here having not been firing with his irons for a while now and with plenty of approaches from long yardages he could be under pressure plenty of times around the greens.
He is well equipped to deal with that mind you but the difference between his and Scheffler's long game right now is stark and for that reason the American rates a much better bet. This is one of those of those venues where the putter is arguably the least important club in the bag.
Granted, Kitayama and English were 1st and 2nd in putting last year when taking up the first couple of spots on the leaderboard but the others in the top five were ranked 39th, 50th, 28th, 53rd and 35th in putting for the week.
Scheffler ranked 17th in putting the year he won whilst the year before DeChambeau and Westwood were 21st and 37th respectively. Bay Hill is all about how well you play with your irons and how well you can scramble when the inevitable greens are missed.
Scheffler is light years beyond anyone in the field in this department and he's only had one effort outside the top 10 since mid August 2023. Missing the Monday finish at PGA National is probably a blessing and with form here of 4-WIN-15 I find it very difficult to imagine him not being in the shake up here on Sunday evening.
Matthew Fitzpatrick at 33/1 (Seven Places)
Matthew Fitzpatrick has had a somewhat disappointing start to the season but signs are good that he can return to his best at Bay Hill, a course that he has loved down the years. The Englishman started the year fine with a top 15 at the Sentry but since he has missed cuts at the Sony and Genesis whilst finishing down the field at a suitable Pebble Beach.
15th at Scottsdale was another fair result and then last week a ten under par finishing score was more than respectable in turn managing to avoid the Monday finish. Throughout these average efforts he ranks 18th in the field between 175-200 yards and 20th from 200+.
Also ranking 1st in Scrambling in the field in the last 12 months suggests this is again set up for Fitzpatrick and having found some putting form last week at PGA National the price around 33/1 looks very interesting. Runner up here in 2019 and five other top 15 finishes means he has the best course form in the field bar the two favourites and he looks well equipped to go well once again.
Cameron Young at 33/1 (Seven Places)
The frenzy to back Eric Cole last week was slightly strange and didn't go to plan but his second round of 71 on route to a missed cut was not a bad sign.
Around 66/1 he looks a much better prospect here and it'd be no surprise to me should he bounce back to a good effort this week. Byeong Hun An and Hideki Matsuyama are two others who were very close to making the grade but once again I'll opt for Cameron Young.
Young continued on his merry way without winning with another fine performance at PGA National. He ranked inside the top 15 for SG putting for the week which was a great sign and he should benefit even more by arriving at a course where putting often doesn't figure prominently in winners and contenders statistics down the years.
I get the impression Young is learning fast this year, including when playing with McIlroy in Dubai at the start of the year. His ball striking is hugely impressive and overall he holds a lot of the keys needed to unlock Bay Hill. He was 2nd after round one last year, and 6th at halfway the year before on route to two top 15 finishes.
