The Players Championship

TPC Sawgrass, Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. Sawgrass is ingrained in all of our brains whether it be from watching this since a child, or religiously playing the back 9 on gaming consoles. The 17th will provide plenty of drama and a little breeze there can cause absolute carnage.

The Players Championship Tips

 

Narrowing down the list of potential winners here is never easy as down the years we've had the plodding type winners of Ames, Clark, Choi, Funk and Simpson compared to the more swash buckling types of Mickelson, Scheffler, McIlroy, Day and Thomas.

There have been little in the way of surprises either with only two of the last ten winners not having previously won a major or gone onto win one. That gives a strong profile of the types of golfers who can win here and narrowing the list down to players who have won in similar strength fields, or even Majors may prove beneficial.

Scheffler led the field in driving distance when winning last year but none of the other top 5 were inside the top 30 in that statistic. Below are the basic stats for the last three years accumulated here.

None of the top four in 2022 made it inside the top 20 in driving distance whilst 11th in DD was the best in the top five the year before.

Despite the water that awaits errant drives here, driving accuracy has played little importance in the outcome of the tournament either. Proximity with the irons from 100-150 yards looks like a statistic where you could narrow the field and those not performing in that distance will have trouble scoring around here.

Max Homa at 28/1 (Eight Places)

The 33/1 dangled about Max Homa disappeared quickly, but slightly shorter still looks worth taking given he has shown little signs of taking his foot off the gas lately, as well as 6th and 13th placed finishes in the last two years here around Sawgrass.

Homa has a good game for this test, long and straight off the tee and he has long since been a solid performer with the irons. He has everything in fact, with his somewhat dismal record in Major Championships being the only head scratcher.

Homa has only twice been outside of the top 20 in his last 15 efforts on tour. It's an impressive run with his latest victory coming at the Nedbank last November.

There is little doubt he is more suited to West Coast golf but it'll surely only be a matter of time before he shows similar form elsewhere. This looks like the perfect place to start and he's posting really solid number in the 75-125 yard range.

Tied 8th last week at Bay Hill was compiled largely because of a firing putter and I expect his long game to catch up on a venue where it pays to keep it neat and tidy from tee to green. 

2pts each-way M.Homa 28/1  (1/5 8) General

Jason Day at 50/1 (Seven Places)

Perhaps one with a more consistent record here before and after his victory is Jason Day and I'm happy to get involved with anything at 40/1 or bigger. A poor week with the irons at Bay Hill meant he finished down the field but it's worth noting he performed well with the driver as well as the putter.

His irons were poor at Torrey Pines also but that didn't stop him from bouncing back the following week at Pebble ranking 14th on approach play. Therefore his dip last week could be temporary and a similar bounce back will give him every chance of scoring around a track he has played well on numerous times.

A victory in 2016 came after a top 10 and top 20 in the few years prior, whilst two top tens and one top 20 have followed since his win. That represents the best form here in the field and of course he fits the profile of a former Major Champion, eight of the last 10 renewals here going the way of a Major Champion.

From inside 150 yards there are little concerns, the long irons may provide the headache this week but he looks a solid option at the price.

1.75pts each-way J.Day  50/1  (1/5 7) Unibet, Bet MGM

Ludvig Aberg at 33/1 (Seven Places)

Ludvig Aberg is still seeing most of these courses for the first time on tour, which makes his results look even more impressive than what they currently do.

Aberg did a great job of navigating his way around Wentworth on debut last year, and he could do similar here with his power and accuracy giving him a big advantage on the rest.

This isn't his first rodeo here either having finished 7th here in the Junior Players Championship back in 2018 carding three under par across three rounds. He performed well off the tee last week, as well as ranking 6th on the greens, but it was his iron play that let him down at Bay Hill. That will need to improve this week at Sawgrass but I'll hazard a guess it will as his iron play rarely disappoints.

Plenty of players have demons to exorcise here whilst Aberg is coming in fresh and we have to take notice whenever his price starts to get beyond 30/1 as for me his ceiling remains higher than anyone in the field bar the top two in the betting. 

1.75pts each-way L.Aberg  33/1  (1/5 7) Unibet, Bet MGM, Bet UK

Jordan Spieth at 33/1 (Eight Places)

Ranking 12th in driving accuracy and 16th in driving distance last week you could be left wondering why Jordan Spieth was 50th in SG OTT at Bay Hill. That was down to two drives alone, one which went out of bounds on the 16th in round 1, and the other in the water on the 6th in round 3. Bar that Spieth had a solid week with the driver, and the rest of his game fired also, including the putter.

It's an eye catching result given how well he drove the ball for the other 70 holes and for a punter it's even better as that effort has gone somewhat under the radar.

His results at Sawgrass are as erratic as the rest really with 4th place on debut back in 2014 being his best effort. Granted, Spieth can be wild and he'll need to avoid those bad drives from last week, but he can hit plenty of 3 woods here as you can get away with a little length at Sawgrass.

69 was one of the better scores on Sunday and he's capable of continuing on that run and being a major factor here at Sawgrass this week.

1.75pts each-way J.Spieth  33/1  (1/5 8) Paddypower

Keegan Bradley at 75/1 (Eight Places)

Keegan Bradley has gone well here in recent years with two top seven finishes and one further top 20 in his last six efforts at this event.

Bradley's long game has been an asset for many years now and whilst he's had his struggles with the putter down the years that club seems to have levelled out a fair bit.

A win last June at the Travelers wasn't enough to get him into the Ryder Cup squad and he was one who could have a serious gripe with being left out in Rome.

He does and will have a point to prove and started this year off in fine style narrowly losing out in a playoff at the Sony Open, then finishing 11th at Pebble Beach. The putter let him down at Torrey Pines and Riviera but his long game has been consistent throughout.

He has the perfect game for Sawgrass also and will hold no fear of anyone should he be battling in the final few groups at the weekend.

1pt each-way K.Bradley  75/1  (1/5 8) Bet365

Akshay Bhatia at 250/1 (Seven Places)

250/1 about former winner here Webb Simpson is interesting given he showed some decent signs of life last week at Bay Hill and it'd be no surprise to me should he threaten the places here at the weekend. At a similar price though preference is for Akshay Bhatia who could go well here on debut.

He too played in the 2018 Junior Players here back in 2018 but he surpassed Aberg, shooting 8 under and being beaten in a playoff that year. He should arrive here with good memories of that week and is well equipped to go well once again.

In the last three months he ranks 17th in the field from 125-150 yards and 2nd from 150-175. He is reasonably long off the tee but plenty accurate and he should be in position to give himself plenty of chances.

The putter has been the huge issue of late, especially last time out at PGA National. If there is an upturn with that club we could see Bhatia on the leaderboard on Sunday evening.

0.75pt each-way A.Bhatia  250/1  (1/5 7) Unibet, Bet MGM, Bet UK