Valspar Championship

The Valspar Championship will be played at Copperhead Course, Innisbrook Palm Harbour, Florida. As ever in Florida the weather needs some attention and if there's much wind in the forecast we could see those specialists dominating the leaderboard. 

Valspar Championship Tips

  • 1.5pts each-way S.Straka  50/1  (1/5 10) Coral, Ladbrokes
  • 1.5pt each-way A.Hadwin  45/1  (1/5 8) WilliamHill, 888sport
  • 1pt each-way B.Horschel  80/1  (1/5 8) 888sport
  • 1pt each-way V.Perez  80/1  (1/5 10) Coral,. Ladbrokes
  • 0.75pt each-way W.Simpson  110/1  (1/5 8) Skybet, 888sport
  • 0.75pt each-way A.Novak  125/1  (1/5 8) WilliamHIll

 

Over the past five renewals here we have only had three winners with Sam Burns and Paul Casey both winning back to back, then Taylor Moore taking the spoils last year. KJ Choi and Retief Goosen are another two since 2000 who have won on multiple occasions here which means eight renewals have been shared between just four players.

Therefore we must pay close attention to previous winners as well as those with course form who haven't managed a victory here. 

We have a long list of champions here who fit the 'plodding' type with Casey, Hadwin, Senden, Streelman, Donald, Furyk and Choi all winning here.

Very few of the winners can be labelled as bombers off the tee and this adds up with the course having many dog legs and lay ups off the tee. It certainly requires a good deal more strategy than most courses on the circuit and it's no surprise we've had three US Open winners who lifted this trophy at Copperhead.

Neither driving accuracy or distance is favoured here, instead look to those who make their gains from tee to green, by not necessarily driving the ball far. As you can see by the tables below the top 5 here down the years have been dominated by those who have made their gains from tee to green, and those who have previously made those gains at the likes of Colonial or Sedgefield will be of particular interest.

Valspar Championship Winners & Winning Score

  • 2023 - T.Moore  (-10)
  • 2022 - S.Burns (-17)
  • 2021 - S.Burns (-17)
  • 2019 - P.Casey (-8)
  • 2018 - P.Casey (-10)

 

Sepp Straka at 50/1 (10 Places)

Vijay Singh, Sean O'Hair, John Senden and Jordan Spieth have all won at Deere Run and Copperhead and I've been looking for an excuse to back Sepp Straka for a while and this looks like the perfect opportunity.

The Austrian won the John Deere back in July before finishing runner up at the Open a couple of weeks later and a successful trip to the Ryder Cup capped off a tremendous year. Now a double PGA Tour champion, with the other coming in Florida, Straka arrives here having finished inside the top 20 at Sawgrass playing extremely well from tee to green.

It could have been better had his putter behaved but that keeps him a little under the radar and on a putting surface that he prefers this week. His iron play hasn't been as strong as usual since the turn of the year, but signs were good at Sawgrass and this strategic track could come at the perfect time for him to add his name to the list of John Deere winners to win the Valspar. 

1.5pts each-way S.Straka  50/1  (1/5 10) Coral, Ladbrokes

Sepp Straka - 1.5pts e/w @ 50/1

Adam Hadwin at 45/1 (8 Places)

Adam Hadwin was another to miss the cut last week at Sawgrass but results there are some of the most volatile on tour and despite previous form there I'm happy to gloss over that effort.

Remarkably we have to go back to 2017 for Hadwin's one and only win on the tour but it did come at this venue and if there is to be another it maybe is more likely here than any other course on the circuit. The Canadian has gone very close to adding to his sole victory on tour in the last twelve months with three runner up finishes since last April.

This year he once again showed form in the Desert finishing 6th in the American Express, and a 4th place at Riviera showed his versatility around contrasting golf courses. Copperhead is a course that really suits his game, a solid all rounder who has no real weakness.

A lack of length off the tee can be a slight concern around some tracks, but he is granted some grace in that department this week and can add his name to the list of multiple champions here. 

1.5pt each-way A.Hadwin  45/1  (1/5 8) WilliamHill, 888sport

Adam Hadwin - 1.5pts e/w @ 45/1

Billy Horschel at 80/1 (8 Places)

Billy Horschel hasn't had much success around Copperhead with only one made cut from four appearances but he hasn't turned up since 2018 and his return could see better fortunes.

He missed the cut last week at Sawgrass but that is of little importance given he has only managed one top 20 finish there in twelve tries. Now getting into the Autumn of his career on the PGA Tour Horschel's chances increase on layouts where length off the tee is not a prerequisite.

Although not the most important aspect around here, he is much more accurate than he is long off the tee and his stock fade shot off the tee here should pay dividends as opposed to the draw he hit when he last played here six years ago and beyond.

9th at PGA National was a fair effort and you could tell there just how much he wanted to get back into the winners enclosure following some dark times in the early part of 2023. He finished that year strong and it's no surprise his best two efforts this year have come on the more strategic layouts of Waialae and PGA National. Copperhead is another one of those courses that suit and his strong bermuda putting stats are another positive. 

1pt each-way B.Horschel  80/1  (1/5 8) 888sport

Billy Horschel - 1pt e/w @ 80/1

Victor Perez at 80/1 (10 Places)

Victor Perez can not be underestimated on any given week and following a fair debut of 45th last year can be expected to go better and give a bold account of himself at Copperhead this week.

The Frenchman's victories have been impressive down the last couple of years, pluckily winning the Abu Dhabi HSBC beating Min Woo Lee into second, then prior to that overcoming Ryan Fox and Adrian Meronk in the Netherlands.

A Dunhill Links win ensures he has an eye catching CV and it wouldn't surprise me should he take the leap and win on the PGA Tour. We may yet see the snowball effect of Pavon's victory at Torrey Pines and Perez has went well lately finishing 16th at PGA National then 3rd in Puerto Rico. He was lying 4th at PGA National there heading into day four but just couldn't buy a putt over that final 18 holes.

He will take confidence from Puerto Rico and with Copperhead demanding a neat and tidy long game, Perez may just continue from where he left off and threaten another French winner on the PGA Tour this year.

1pt each-way V.Perez  80/1  (1/5 10) Coral,. Ladbrokes

Victor Perez - 1pt e/w @ 80/1

Webb Simpson at 110/1 (8 Places)

Gary Woodland is a former champion who having made the cut last week at Sawgrass could kick on to some better results following a lengthy lay off. However, my preference is for another former US Open champion in the shape of Webb Simpson. 

He didn't disgrace himself last week missing the cut on the number at Sawgrass and that had followed three made cuts on the spin, hitting the ball well off the tee on all those occasions. He was 2nd here back in 2011 and his 7th place here last year is his second best result on the past two years.

These are the venues on which he can make hay and his name would fit perfectly as a similar profile to many of the past champions here. He needs his trusty putter to show up here but his long game certainly looks in good enough nick to get into the shake up here and with this being one of tougher tracks on the circuit it should really suit him. Any triple figure quotes are worthy of snapping up. 

0.75pt each-way W.Simpson  110/1  (1/5 8) Skybet, 888sport

Webb Simpson - 0.75pts e/w @ 110/1

Andrew Novak at 125/1 (8 Places)

Dylan Wu managed a top 20 at Sawgrass last week and if he turns up in similar form this week could easily get into the conversation at the weekend at 150/1. This is a course that will suit Matt Wallace and it'd be no surprise to me should he outplay his odds of 150/1 as well but for my last selection I'll take a punt on Andrew Novak at triple figure prices.

Now on his third season in a row on the PGA Tour Novak hasn't pulled up many trees but has managed to keep his status. This may be the week where it all clicks following a missed cut at Sawgrass. Prior to that he was 9th at PGA National, 8th in Mexico and 8th at Scottsdale.

Throughout those events his approach play and his work around the greens were exemplary and that makes for a potent combination around Copperhead. He also found form with the driver during those events and a bounce back following a tough week at the Players can not be ruled out.

0.75pt each-way A.Novak  125/1  (1/5 8) WilliamHIll

Andrew Novak - 125pts