Niall Lyons has five tips for the Valero Texas Open at TPC San Antonio.
Valero Texas Open
The Valero Texas Open will be played at the Oaks Course, TPC San Antonio, Texas. This Greg Norman designed track has proven reasonably tough down the years with regular mid teen scores under par winning, but with no wind Corey Conners blitzed the course with a 20 under par total back in 2019.
Valero Texas Open Tips
- 4pts WIN R.McIlroy 10/1 Bet365, BetVictor, Unibet
- 2pts each-way H.Matsuyama 20/1 (1/5 8) WilliamHill
- 0.75pt A.Eckroat 80/1 (1/5 8) Paddypower, WilliamHill, 888sport
- 0.75pt each-way J.Dahmen 175/1 (1/5 8) Skybet
- 0.75pt each-way A.Svensson 150/1 (1/5 8) Skybet
Wind as always plays a huge part in Texas and will determine scoring here to a fair degree. Studying the tables below nothing in particular stands out to easily narrow down the list of potential winners. Of the 17 who have made the top five and ties only four have ranked inside the top 10 in driving distance.
Similarly driving accuracy doesn't feature an awful lot in the contenders statistics either. Instead look to tee to green performers who make most of their gains through their approach play.
Conners and Spieth, three of the last four winners certainly fit into that category and if you take the 2023 and 2021 results only two of the 10 who featured in the top five ranked outside the top eight in approach play for the week.
It certainly pays to look at the ball strikers here and if you can hit the ball far off the tee in that scenario then you have a solid foundation on which to score here.
Below are the stats for the last three years top performers in the Texas Open.
Vaero Texas Open Previous Winners / Winning Score
- 2023 - C.Conners (-15)
- 2022 - JJ Spaun (-13)
- 2021 - J.Spieth (-18)
- 2019 - C.Conners (-20)
- 2018 - A.Landry (-17)
Rory Mcllroy at 10/1
A few weeks ago at Sawgrass I backed Ludvig Aberg at 33/1 whilst McIlroy was a general 14/1 shot. This time around we see two points separating these two with McIlroy at 10s and the Swede at 12s.
It's no secret how much I'm a fan of Aberg's game and thankfully I've been on board one of his wins so far, and normally in an event of this nature I'd be all over backing him.
However, the week before the Players Championship we saw McIlroy go off a general 8/1 shot for the Arnold Palmer, a field that included Scottie Scheffler.
All be it that is a venue where McIlroy has won on before, and the Oaks course isn't, but between the two market leaders I have to prefer McIlroy at the odds, and he rates my top selection.
There is no doubt McIlroy has not been at the races this year in the States with his irons for the most part causing the problems. His top 20 finish at Sawgrass last time out though was his best performance on approach play on the PGA Tour since the St Jude Championship last August where he finished one shot shy of the playoff between Glover and Cantlay.
For the first time in forever though he didn't perform off the tee, and maybe he can be forgiven that as Sawgrass isn't a course you can overly punish with the driver.
This is slightly different, and solid, long driving will help around the Oaks Course and should he perform with the driver like he has been all year then that has to give him a huge chance if he continues where he left off in Florida with the irons.
He does already have a win this year in Dubai and this field is slightly weaker than some he has faced recently. It's worth noting that McIlroy is the same price for the Masters next week, but this week we see the likes of Henley and English at 33/1, whilst they are both triple figure prices next week.
You can read my first betting preview for the 2024 Masters here.
This represents a huge chance for McIlroy to get off the mark this season on the PGA Tour, and in turn give him all the momentum into next week, and his price dictates we have to bet.
4pts WIN R.McIlroy 10/1 Bet365, BetVictor, Unibet
Hideki Matsuyama at 20/1 (Eight Places)
So many of the game's best have purple patches when winning and I'm happy to have a second main bet of the week on Hideki Matsuyama before moving onto some outsiders.
The 2021 Masters Champion has been in red hot form winning at Riviera before finishing 12th at Bayhill, then 6th at Sawgrass. That is an incredible run of form on three golf courses that test all aspects of the game, with plenty of trouble lurking throughout.
Nobody in this field has had a more impressive run in those events and it suggests Matsuyama is well equipped to go again on a course that rewards solid ball striking. Matsuyama's long game has been in sparkling condition and should McIlroy fail to fire then he looks like a very likely candidate to have it in him to head into the Masters with two wins in his previous four starts.
If he does that he'll be all the rage this week and I wouldn't put anyone off visiting their local bookmaker shops and request a special price for both McIlroy and Matsuyama to win this week and next.
There is no chink in Hideki's armour these days and his name would fit perfect amidst a roll call of champions here that includes Spieth and Conners in recent years.
2pts each-way H.Matsuyama 20/1 (1/5 8) WilliamHill
Austin Eckroat at 80/1 (Eight Places)
The way Mathieu Pavon won in Spain late last year was eye catching to say the least, and he went on to prove it was no flash in the pan with his incredible efforts since, including the win at the Farmers.
The same could also be said for Austin Eckroat who barely broke sweat during an interrupted final round at PGA National when landing his maiden victory last month. Since then 36th at the Arnold Palmer and 45th at the Players Championship have been middling efforts, but both times he has been plagued by a misbehaving putter.
His ball striking, especially his iron play, has continued to be sparkling and a repeat of those efforts lately on approach play could give him every chance to get into the mix once again.
He favours accuracy over distance, and looking at previous years stats there is little to separate those two elements. Instead we can concentrate on his win at PGA National, and his top ten in the US Open as evidence he goes well on the slightly tougher layouts on tour.
With solid events in Texas last year, finishing runner up at the Byron Nelson and 16th at the Charles Schwab Challenge, as well as his win at PGA National he has shown himself well equipped in the breezy conditions that can materialise here, so 80/1 looks worthy of snapping up.
0.75pt A.Eckroat 80/1 (1/5 8) Paddypower, WilliamHill, 888sport
Joel Dahmen at 175/1 (Eight Places)
Everybody who has watched the new Netflix series now knows the struggles of Joel Dahmen and his caddie. You can not question the determination of Geno Bonnalie to turn things around, whether it was hitting home with his employer or not.
Results may not have taken a huge turn yet, but there are certainly positive signs and it's worth taking a punt on a fairytale story materialising this week which will see them head to Augusta next week as a result.
Dahmen finished 11th at Sawgrass a few weeks ago ranking 3rd from tee to green. He ranked 3rd in the ball striking department the next week at the Valspar and on both occasions was let down by his work on the greens.
We have seen numerous questionable putters win this event or go close to winning it, so his recent efforts with the putter aren't something that overly concerns me here (until Sunday if in the mix!).
Overall we've seen a few long shots take this title and get their place in the Masters, and Dahmen looks like one of those at big prices who could land a career defining victory in Texas.
0.75pt each-way J.Dahmen 175/1 (1/5 8) Skybet
Adam Svensson at 150/1 (Eight Places)
Adam Svensson isn't in the Masters field having just missed out on the qualifying criteria at the turn of the year by seven spots.
When needing a great week at the last event of 2023 to get inside the world's top 50, he managed a 5th place at the RSM Classic, and maybe that bodes well for a last ditch attempt this week in Texas.
The Canadian already has a victory on the PGA Tour and made his debut at Augusta last year. With ball striking being an important part of the equation here, Svensson has performed well in that department lately, especially with his irons both last week in Houston then at Copperhead.
Both times he has struggled with the putter, and that has been the story of his year to date. It's worth pointing out that his performances on the greens have improved three weeks in a row though and if we manage to get a fourth week then he has the tools to score around this par 72.
0.75pt each-way A.Svensson 150/1 (1/5 8) Skybet
