John Deere Classic

The John Deere Classic will be played at TPC Deere Run, Silvus, Illinois.  The course here is a shortish par 71 that doesn't tend to test the golfers off the tee much at all.

Distance is preferred slightly over accuracy but must be said there is little in it and what you do off the tee shouldn't determine your fate.

Instead that fate will be decided on approach or with the putter. A hot putter is no doubt needed here to make the requisite scores to contend as low 60s rounds will be plentiful and there could easily be a flirtation with a round in the 50s.

It's a true birdie fest where any momentum lost will be crucial. We look to the previous two weeks at TPC River Highlands and Detroit for pointers as to who's scoring well as anyone not taking advantage of these easier layouts may be worth swerving.

With a lot of wedges to play this week Sedgefield is another track we look to for any correlating form.

John Deere Classic Tips

 

Here are the key stats for the top finishers (including ties) in the last three renewals of the John Deere Classic.

 

Davis Thompson at 25/1 (Eight Places)

Following on from last weekend's birdie fest the one I was most interested to see priced on Monday was Davis Thompson.

Although I was hoping for a bigger price I'm going to stick with him at 25/1 as there are plenty of others shorter in the market who are far from reliable.

Thompson absolutely thrives on weeks where tonnes of birdies are necessary and lately he has hit his hottest form to date.

With two runner up finishes this year at the Rocket Mortgage and Myrtle Beach, that takes his tally to three and he'll consider this week a big opportunity to finally get over the line.

Last weeks fine effort follows a top 10 at the US Open and he arrives here probably playing the best golf in the field.

Crucially he his holing plenty of putts of late also to marry with a firing long game and he looks to hold all the aces this week at Deere Run. 

2pts each-way D.Thompson  25/1  (1/5 8) Paddypower

Patton Kizzire at 125/1 (Eight Places)

At triple figure prices Patton Kizzire looks interesting and somewhat underestimated.

Kizzire's only missed cut in his last six events came in Canada where he had a horrid week on the greens.

Generally speaking he has been playing well through the bag, and especially with his wedges. With the majority of approaches coming in from 150 yards or less that could really play into Kizzire's hands.

20th last week is a good warm up for this and he has posted five top 30 finishes in his last six. Throw in 4 made cuts from 5 at this venue with three top 25 finishes and we have a very lively outsider this week.

1pt each-way P.Kizzire  125/1  (1/5 8) Paddypower, Skybet

Joel Dahmen at 80/1 (Eight Places)

Joel Dahmen's plight was there for all to see on the Netflix documentary but just like Matt Fitzpatrick and Wyndham Clark in the same show those who grind often get rewarded eventually.

Just how much work Dahmen has put into the mental side of things is unknown but there have been glimpses of him finally finding that path back to victory.

I had hoped there would be more signs of life following his 11th place at Sawgrass but it hasn't quite happened.

10th in Canada a few weeks back was courtesy of finding some form with the putter whilst 25th last week in Detroit was a fair effort with the putter misbehaving again.

His long game is in fine nick though and as often plays out here it'll be a putting contest.

He made enough birdies last week to suggest he could go again and this is a fairly weak affair. 

1pt each-way J.Dahmen  80/1  (1/5 8) Skybet, WilliamHill, 888sport

Daniel Berger at 66/1 (Eight Places)

One of the more accurate drivers in the field Daniel Berger will benefit from playing from the short grass this week and I can't help but feel he's a little underrated in the market around the 70/1 mark.

Only two starts ago Berger posted a top 25 finish at the US Open which could have been a lot better had he managed a better week with the putter.

Having made six of his last nine cuts it has been a fair return this year following a lengthy lay off.

This field is quite weak and even 16/1 shot Jordan Spieth has plenty of questions to answer.

I'd rather risk Berger who has shown glimpses of his former form in 2024 and has a top 5 finish here back in 2017. 

1pt each-way D.Berger  (1/5 8) Skybet, Paddypower

Matthew Nesmith at 250/1 (Eight Places)

I'll take the chance on a few huge prices this week and next on the list Matthew Nesmith.

Nesmith has been renowned for a really solid approach game and that hasn't changed much, despite a run of really poor form.

However, the easiest of layouts often provide opportunities for golfers to find form once again and Nesmith could benefit from a trip to Deere Run.

A top 25 finish at Colonial in a stronger field was posted just three starts ago and he has performed fairly decent with his irons and putter since despite missing two cuts.

A putting contest often plays out here and I'm happy to risk Nesmith who is never far away from having a really good with his wedges.

0.75pt each-way M.Nesmith  250/1  (1/5 8) Skybet

Wesley Bryan at 400/1 (Eight Places)

Finally I'll take a flyer on Wesley Bryan who opened last week with round of 68 and 67 before tumbling down the leaderboard at the weekend.

Bryan ended a bad run with a surprising runner up in PuntaCana in March but hasn't managed to kick on from that result.

Nevertheless, his wedge play in particular has been eye catching and if he can manage to maintain that this week he may make the requisite birdies to give us a place squeak come the weekend.

Has finished 8th and 3rd here before in 2016 and 2017 so he may be quietly confident of a solid effort this week. 

0.5pt each-way W.Bryan  400/1  (1/5 8) Skybet