Open Championship 2024

Niall Lyons is going for a fifth winner in four weeks at the Open Championship and currently stands at +386.58 points for 2024! Keep reading for this week's betting selections.

2016 was the last time we saw the Open at Royal Troon and it was one of the most memorable tournaments with Stenson and Mickelson going toe to toe for the final 18 holes in a shootout. 

Back then I always considered the best ball strikers to have the advantage around Troon and that played out, especially with Stenson, but there's no doubt their short game played a huge part in the reason why they pulled away from the field. 

Avoiding trouble on some of the narrow fairways is key and I'd prefer those who are more accurate from the tee than the longest. Nevertheless, all parts of your game will need to fire to score adequately to be towards the top of the leaderboard at the weekend. 

Eight of the last 12 Open Champions have played the Scottish Open the week before so it will certainly pay to have one eye on last week’s result. Harman was 12th last year and many shrewd punters were aboard in Liverpool following the fine effort the week prior. 

As per usual we'll look to the previous Major result as a big pointer towards the next one. Davis Thompson is an interesting contender seeing he landed his maiden victory following on from a top 10 at the US Open. 

There are numerous other strong trends though for the Open which are worth delving into. 11 of the last 12 winners had played in four previous Opens which suggests experience around these layouts in differing conditions is a big feather in the cap. 

10 of the last 12 winners had posted an Open top 10 prior to their win and this isn't surprising as very few will come to these shores and master this Championship without previously having shown some artistry on these examinations. 

11 of the last 12 winners had at least four top 10 finishes that season before winning the Open whilst nine of the last 12 had already won that season. Below I'll list all winners on the PGA and DP World Tours this season and whether or not they hit the trends mentioned above.

McIlroy, Schauffele and DeChambeau are the three left who tick all four boxes in the table above which may go a long way to prove that these trends are the way forward given they hold three of the first five places in the betting market. 

McIlroy may be the most interesting of all three given what he has to overcome following the US Open disaster down the stretch. He did overcome similar disappointment a long time ago by winning the US Open after his Masters meltdown and this would be a similar, if not better achievement were he to win the 2024 Open Championship. 

I don't think it's a coincidence that Bryson's only top 30 finish in the Open in six attempts came at St Andrews where it pays to hit the ball a country mile. Troon doesn't strike me as a perfect fit for someone with DeChambeau's game and although the trends point towards him being a factor, I'd be surprised if he was. 

Of the others who hit many of the trends maybe Louis Oosthuizen is worth close inspection. The only trend he doesn't tick is the top 10 at the previous Major but he wasn't in the field at Pinehurst. 

He won twice towards the end of 2023 on the DPWT and has since posted a couple of runner up finishes on the LIV tour. With a victory back in 2010 and two more top three finishes since he may be worth a play at 100/1 whenever the bookmakers begin to offer enhanced place terms. 

Open Tips from Niall Lyons

 

Shane Lowry @ 35/1 (Eight Places)

I have to admit I was very tempted to go with McIlroy this week as one main selection, but the weather just about puts me off. Plenty of rain is on the way and for that reason I'll split my stakes between two golfers who have proven themselves in those conditions time and time again. 

First up is Shane Lowry who should relish the wind and the rain on the way this week. The Irishman has produced some eye catching golf all season with a couple of top four finishes earlier in the year at PGA National and Bay Hill before winning the Zurich Classic alongside McIlroy. 

6th at the USPGA then 19th at the US Open are solid efforts in the recent Majors, whilst he was 9th last time out at the Travelers. His iron play has been exceptional all season ranking 10th on tour and we all know what he is capable of around the greens at these links courses, which always proves important over the four days. 

A former winner who should be well suited to the weather arriving this week. It's somewhat of an obvious choice, but should he land another Major Championship it'll probably be this one and a poor enough forecast can only enhance his chances. 

2pts each-way S.Lowry  35/1  (1/5 8) Bet365, 888Sport

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Jon Rahm @ 25/1 (Eight Places)

Patrick Cantlay was difficult to leave off the list at the prices this week. The weather just slightly puts me off selecting him, but with a recent fine effort at the US Open he is trending in the right direction in these Majors and may not be far off landing his first. 

I've steered clear of Jon Rahm this year whilst he drifted for these events in the betting market simply because he has looked out of sorts after his decision to jump ship. His results haven't been so bad, but he's still looking for his first victory since winning the Masters in April 2023.

His 10th place last week was a fair effort and Valderrama may be a nice warm up for this event with the importance on keeping it in play. Rahm has twice won on Irish links and it was his performance at Portstewart which is relevant this week given the wind and the rain that looks set to make its presence felt throughout the four days.
 
Seeing Garcia and the Spanish foursome lift all the spoils at the LIV event last week it could give him the kick up the backside he needs to get back into gear as he is a much more accomplished golfer than those ahead of him last week. 

Rahm has a runner up and a 3rd place finish in two of his last three Open Championships and although clearly not hitting those heights this year, this setup could prove the perfect tonic to get back into the winner's enclosure.

2pts each-way J.Rahm  25/1  (1/5 8) Sky Bet, William Hill

Tyrrell Hatton @ 30/1 (Five Places)

Tyrrell Hatton could have certainly felt that the US Open was one that got away playing magnificent golf on the Saturday without taking full advantage. An underperforming putter was the issue and that was the story of the week as he hit the ball tremendous from tee to green. 

He was in the thick of it though on Saturday and that experience will help for the next time. This test suits every bit as much and maybe more so given the same intensity on the mental side won't be needed just as much as what it was at Pinehurst.

His links record is fantastic with a couple of wins in the Dunhill Links and he has posted three top 20s in his last four tries at this event. After the US Open he comfortably held the most recent Major Champion Bryson DeChambeau and Jon Rahm by seven shots when winning for the first time on the LIV circuit.

Beaten by a shot at a tough Valderrama track looks like perfect preparation and this represents one of his best chances to date to land one of the big four.

2pts each-way T.Hatton  30/1  (1/4 5) BetVictor, AK Bets

Aaron Rai @ 80/1 (10 Places)

Aaron Rai may not be on the tip of many people's tongues when talking about a winner of the Open Championship this week, but he's worth playing here at a tasty enough price given the quality of golf he has produced lately. The Englishman will benefit from his arrow straight golf from the tee being one of the most accurate in the field.

With the weather looking set to be turbulent also, the ability to hit a straight ball off the tee and on approach will prove hugely beneficial. Cast your mind back to 2020 and his win at the Renaissance and you'll remember it was achieved in horrific conditions, a lot worse than what we'll see this week. 

Since then he has progressed to the PGA Tour and although still seeking his first victory that side of the water, he has gone close lately finishing 2nd in the Rocket Mortgage and 7th in the John Deere. 

4th last week alongside Morikawa and McIlroy is an example of the standard he is producing and a top 20 at the US Open at Pinehurst will give him even more confidence heading to Troon. 

He ranks 7th on the PGA Tour in strokes gained approach this year and his long game looks perfect for Troon. He may not be a popular name, but it could pay not to underestimate his chances this week.

1.5pts each-way A.Rai  80/1  (1/5 10) Betfred

Sepp Straka @ 100/1 (10 Places)

There aren't so many appealing outsiders this week but I'm happy to go with Sepp Straka at triple figure prices. The Austrian didn't make the cut last week and although an appearance in Scotland has been good for the trends, a good effort there isn't totally necessary. 

The recent birdie fests on the PGA Tour won't exactly have been to his liking and instead I'd prefer to look to two efforts around six weeks ago in tougher examinations that may be a better barometer as to how he could perform this week. 

5th at Colonial then 5th at Muirfield Village are a sign he prefers a harder test and prior to that his two previous top 10s were at Harbour Town and Quail Hollow. He has three top fives in the last eight months where Scottie Scheffler has been the winner and that goes to show you the quality he is capable of. 

Runner up at Hoylake last year and a former winner at PGA National which is a haven for good Open Championship operators, Straka looks one of the more interesting contenders further down the betting board. 

1pt each-way S.Straka  100/1  (1/5 10) Betfred, Ladbrokes