Tour Championship

The Tour Championship will be hosted at East Lake Golf Club, Atlanta, Georgia.

The annual curtain closer on the PGA Tour remains a huge problem and despite what some of the players say the format of this event does not service the viewing public.

More than half of the field are making up the numbers and simply playing for end of season prize money whilst those higher up the starting leaderboard have a tall order to get one over on the leaders.

Since the start of this godforsaken format Rory McIlroy is the only golfer to win it outside of the top 2 on the starting leaderboard.

In 2019 he started 5 shots behind, whilst in 2022 he started 6 shots behind. McIlroy is somewhat of an expert in shooting low scores when the pressure is off so it's no wonder he speaks glowingly about the format.

Despite Xander's and Scheffler's much superior year they are there to be shot at this week and there's little doubt the format is unfair to those who have clearly set themselves apart from the rest.

Driving distance isn't much of an advantage around here and we've often seen some of the longest in the game having to club down to 3 woods off the tee.

Accuracy is much preferred and a hot putter will be needed to compete in the 72 hole market.

In the statistics table below I have listed the top 5 and ties each year in the 72 holes as opposed to including the starting strokes.

 

Tour Championship Tips

 

Ludvig Aberg Win at 25/1 (Three Places)

It has been a long year for Scottie Scheffler for many reasons and perhaps we are beginning to see a few mental scars surfacing over the past few weeks.

He hasn't quite had the same demeanour as what he did earlier in the year and a few on course outbursts have been out of character.

It may be fatigue, but it may also be a feeling that he is hard done by in this Tour Championship format. I believe him to be vulnerable to a closer this week for many reasons and Schauffele isn't quite big enough so I'll have a small bet on Ludvig Aberg.

Last week was his first top 3 finish since the Masters and although you can't fault his position at this stage it is somewhat surprising he didn't land a victory in this calendar year.

Last week should give him all the confidence he needs to put up a good fight here on his debut at East Lake.

He has shown ability to go well on numerous courses on debut in his career so far with the highlight being a runner at Augusta on his maiden visit.

Schauffele may prove too big a nut to crack should Scheffler not do the business, but in Aberg we have a firecracker capable of producing something akin to what McIlroy has here a few times down the last five years.

1pt each-way L.Aberg  25/1  (1/5 3) Unibet, BetUK

Rory McIlroy Lowest 72 Hole Score at 14/1 (Four Places)

McIlroy may not have fired on all cylinders since his US Open debacle and as a result I probably had him booked for a subdued end to the season but I can't help but be tempted by his price in the 72 hole market.

His irons certainly aren't in the form they were coming into this event in previous years but there was a fair improvement off the tee last week after the St Jude and East Lake suits his eye.

He is often forced into clubbing down off various tees here and I always believe McIlroy is a more dangerous golfer when he's hitting 3 woods off the tee.

We should see plenty of that this week and the question will be whether his irons can improve enough to get into contention here.

I'd argue in the outright market it may be too tall an order for him given the quality the front two have produced all year.

Nevertheless I wasn't quite expecting to see 14/1 for the lowest 72 hole score here when he has landed that market three times in the last seven years.

I'd of course like him to be hitting the ball better but I see little better value in either market this week and although it may be the obvious choice I believe it to be the right one.

2pts each-way R.McIlroy lowest 72 hole score  14/1  (1/4 4) General