Niall Lyons has six picks for this week's Irish Open at Royal County Down.
Irish Open
It has been a long nine years in between drinks for Royal County Down but this magnificent venue is now back on the world stage as a stellar field takes to the backdrop of the Mourne Moutains.
This fine links is forever mentioned in debates about the world's best golf course and there's little doubt it is one of the very best.
From a personal view you do experience it when you play it and you feel the magnitude of the place, but having attended the Irish Open here back in 2015 it remains one of the best courses for a Championship such as this.
It is a very exciting finish that lends itself to big swings, and we saw that play out in a thrilling playoff back in 2015. The weather caused havoc last time out resulting in a 2 under par win for Kjeldsen and once again wind and rain is forecast later in the week having been much more pleasant the previous week.
Scrambling stood out last time as the statistic to concentrate on and that rings true from my experience around there.
Greens are tricky to hold and the slopes mean plenty of greens will be missed. Add in the weather factor and for sure it will be a strong test in every department.
Strokes gained stats were unavailable back in 2015 but below I've listed the traditional stats from that event.
Nine of the top 20 in the scrambling statistic made the top 10 and ties that week and I expect similar to play out this time around.
Irish Open 2024 Tips
- 3pts WIN A.Rai 15/1 Bet365 Enhanced Win Market
- 2pts each-way B.Wiesberger 30/1 (1/5 8) Paddypower
- 2pts each-way S.Soderberg 40/1 (1/5 8) Paddypower
- 1pt each-way A.Rozner 90/1 (1/5 8) Paddypower
- 1pt each-way J.Campillo 75/1 (1/5 8) Paddypower
- 1pt each-way J.Dean 100/1 (1/5 8) Bet365 8 place market, Paddypower
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Aaron Rai at 15/1 (Win)
Aaron Rai had a hugely successful season on the PGA Tour and having won the Wyndham Championship last month can add an Irish Open to his CV to add to to his Scottish Open title that he won back in 2020.
That was done so in horrid conditions on the Sunday and it looks like weather may play its part once again here in Newcastle.
Rai closed with a 63 to finish 4th at the Renaissance in July and looks perfectly capable of competing over the weekend here.
He is a similar plodder to the 2015 champion here Soren Kjeldsen although it'd be doing him a disservice not to mention he is a much better operator than the Dane.
The pressure is on the two home players and although both have won this event you have to go back to 1949 and Harry Bradshaw who was the last Irishman to win the event twice.
Expectation is huge and McIlroy can maybe use this a dry run to next year's Open Championship at Portrush.
Alongside the two Irishmen, Rai is the only other competitor in the field to have made it all the way to the Tour Championship a couple of weeks ago.
He looks to have the perfect game for this test and I'm happy to favour him here over the two fan favourites.
Bernd Wiesberger at 30/1 (Eight Places)
One notorious element to Royal County Down is the numerous blind shots you'll have. This can take some getting used to and I can't help but feel some of those who played in 2015 may have a slight advantage, despite the fact it was a long time ago.
Having been beaten in a playoff here back in 2015 and in throws of some solid form Bernd Wiesberger looks worth a gamble.
Granted, a lot depends on his short game but if the weather doesn't hold many problems then he is one whose long game could stand out in the field and make the requisite scores to get into contention at the weekend.
He has only been outside the top 25 twice in his last 11 starts and has an eye catching profile on links.
A winner at the Renaissance back in 2019 goes nicely alongside two runner up finishes on Irish links both here and at Lahinch.
Wiesberger will quietly fancy his chances at this course and the former Ryder Cup star has mixed it with the biggest names in the sport and won't be afraid of taking on the two favourites should they be challenging him over the weekend.
Sebastian Soderberg at 40/1 (Eight Places)
Sebastian Soderberg came back last week following a long lay off after his demise in the Volvo Scandinavian Mixed. It was an impressive 12th placed finish at Crans and he is a dangerous opponent to anyone in the field.
Just like we saw with Wallace last week and the mental strength to win again from some really low points, Soderberg would be a similar story and I expect him to take inspiration from the Englishman's victory.
The Swede currently sits 5th in the Race to Dubai rankings and has a lot to play for over the coming months with him being in the position to gain a PGA Tour card for next year.
With that in mind a two month break was ballsy and it could prove the perfect preparation for a long run in.
Soderberg ranks 6th on tour in Scrambling this year and with three runner up finishes in his last six starts shows no sign of letting up.
Wallace's victory will be with him this week and he'll be looking to forge a similar path and there wouldn't be a dry eye in the house should he manage a victory following what happened in early June.
Antoine Rozner isn't quite hitting the ball to the same standard as what he was a couple of years ago but lately it has been the putter that has really let him down and a return to some slower greens on links should help the Frenchman this week.
It was a promising run in the Summer finishing 5th in the Italian Open then 26th at the Scottish Open in a strong field, but it hasn't quite happened since.
In the Czech Republic it was the putter that scuppered him, and last week in the Swiss Mountains it was the same story with him almost propping up the field in the putting stats.
He got off to a bad start last week being four over through five holes and recovered well in the end, especially with the final round of 67.
Only two bogeys in his last 27 holes at Crans was a fair effort and he has the pedigree to go well here at County Down.
A former winner in Qatar which always has a strong links marriage, as well as a win by the coast in Mauritius suggests Rozner is well equipped to give a bold account this week.
Jorge Campillo at 75/1 (Eight Places)
Jorge Campillo's final round of 64 last Sunday in Crans was only beaten by one other and with his profile I'm happy to give him a go at anything north of 60/1.
The Spaniard will be rewarded around here by hitting a balls that is relatively long and straight compared to the field.
He sits 21st in Scrambling for the year and having finished 6th at the British Masters will arrive with plenty on confidence following that birdie blitz last Sunday.
Campillo has a sneaky good profile for links golf having finished 7th at Lahinch and 3rd at Ballyliffin.
Add in another top 10 in Scotland as well as a win and two runner up finishes in the windy Qatar and he's a very lively outsider.
Joe Dean at 100/1 (Eight Places)
Andrea Pavan came close to making the staking plan but I slightly prefer Joe Dean and he slots in as my final selection.
Having earned his status via the Q School at the end of last year it took him to February to get in the road as he couldn't afford the travel.
It has been somewhat of a fairytale ever since having finished 2nd in Kenya then being beaten in a playoff at the KLM Open.
A few more top five finishes means Dean is comfortably going to retain his card for next year and is on somewhat of a freeroll having now bagged the euros to travel the world. He has played in two Open Championships to date and made the cut in both finishing 25th in his latest one at Troon.
That bodes well for an appearance around Royal County Down and he has plenty of experience playing at these types of tests from his days on the Euro Pro Tour.
He is flying and having only missed two cuts on tour this season can be trusted to put his best foot forward and maybe get into the argument here on Sunday.
1pt each-way J.Dean 100/1 (1/5 8) Bet365 8 place market, Paddypower
