Niall Lyons has four tips for the Procore Championship in Silverado Resort, California.
The first of the fall events takes place in California at the Silverado Resort and Max Homa has an eye catching record here.
Two victories and a 7th place in the last three years is some run and if he takes to the tee once again he will be hoping for a return to that sort of form.
Homa has also won the Genesis at Riviera and the Farmers at Torrey to combine for an incredible record in this state and that is always a good place to start when analysing this week's field.
Form in California often carries over and with Poa Annua greens featuring here and across a handful of other courses used on the West Coast a nod to this form is advised.
One thing in particular stands out when looking to the course stats and that's how dominant the tee to green experts have been here.
Homa ranked 1st tee to green in 2022 when winning, and second in the same stat when he won in 2021. Steele and Champ both topped the tee to green numbers whilst Cink was 2nd and Tway was 3rd.
Last year all those who made the top five sat inside the top 10 performers from tee to green. There is no compromising on this and it's the necessary statistic to look to.
Fairways are narrow enough but rough doesn't tend to be too punishing so bombers and shorter hitters can taste success here.
Here is a look at the stats of the top performers in the past three editions of the Procore Championship (formerly the Fortinet Championship).
Procore Championship Tips
- 4pts WIN W.Clark 13/1 Bet365 Enhanced Win Market
- 2pts each-way M.McNealy 25/1 (1/5 8) Paddypower
- 1pt each-way N.Taylor 80/1 (1/5 6) Unibet, BetUK, Livescore
- 0.75pt each-way N.Hardy 175/1 (1/5 6) Skybet
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Wyndham Clark at 13/1 (Win)
Theegala may have finished 3rd in the Tour Championship and arrives here as the defending champion but I'm surprised he has taken the favourite tag off Wyndham Clark and I'll take the latter as a win only bet here.
The reason for the win only bet is that he hasn't performed overly well here down the years missing two of five cuts and not finishing any better than 30th in the other three.
Nevertheless he hasn't played here since his winning for the first time on tour around 16 months ago and he has since landed two victories in the state of California.
The first of those was at Los Angeles Country Club where he won the US Open then in February he landed the 54 hole Pebble Beach event by firing in a 3rd round of 60.
In my view he is the much superior golfer to Theegala and his course form has contributed a little bit too much to the price.
I'd have Clark comfortable favourite over the 2023 Fortinet winner and he rates as the best bet in the field.
Maverick McNealy at 25/1 (Eight Places)
Six of the last eight of these events here at Silverado have gone the way of Californians and it would be foolish to ignore one of the most obvious bets in the field in the shape of Maverick McNealy.
McNealy lies 53rd in the Fedex rankings meaning he needs to preserve the top 60 to gain status to some of the elevated events next year.
This represents probably his best chance to win over the fall period and with the event having the obvious way these last few years I think McNealy is the one to include. He has been playing great golf lately finishing 3rd in the 3M Open then 12th at Southwind.
The Californian is well vexed in this environment and he can easily get into the mix over the weekend. I had hoped for a slightly bigger price but I can't see him not making his presence felt here and anything north of 20/1 is worth taking.
Nick Taylor at 80/1 (Six Places)
It has been a mixed bag of late for Nick Taylor of late with his season ending after Southwind and a 65th placed finish at the St Jude.
He did lie inside the top 20 after rounds 1 and 2 there after a pair of 68s and it was only over the weekend that he plummeted with a final round of 77.
The week prior to that he was 3rd after day one of the Wyndham only to miss the cut on the number following a second round of 74.
All is not rosy, but there are flashes of the form that saw him win the Phoenix Open back in February and there have been enough positives at Silverado to suggest he is worth a bet. 9th in 2017 and 6th in 2022 are either side of a 10th place in 2019 where he was 2nd heading into the final day.
The trouble lately has been putting three or four rounds together in a week, and a return to a venue where he has achieved that with fair regularity make him a decent bet at 66/1 or bigger.
Nick Hardy at 175/1 (Six Places)
At 163rd in the rankings and needing a huge performance or two to retain his card I'll take a gamble on Nick Hardy.
Hardy finished off the regular season with 46th at the 3M Open and 38th at the Wyndham. Neither were bad performances and maybe a clean break and focus on securing his card now in the fall will result in an improvement.
The results don't tell the full story. Hardy's ball striking stats have been tremendous over the last four months and it's incredible he hasn't seen an upturn in results in that time.
His game on and around the green is suffering badly but a month away after a busy period may well prove the difference and I'm sure he has worked hard on that side of his game.
Should his long game continue in the same form from what it has been these last few months it is a matter of time before we see some results and back in the state where he landed a US Open top 20 last year may prove beneficial.
