Niall Lyons has five picks for the Open de Espana in Club de Campo, Madrid, Spain this week.
Open de Espana
The Open De Espana Club de Campo, Madrid, Spain.
This is the 5th year on the trot that Club de Campo takes up hosting duties and it once again gets a very strong field with a handful of the LIV golfers taking their place at the starting post.
Jon Rahm has won this in three of the last five years at 5/2, 3/1 and 4/1. In nine of the last 14 stagings of this event a Spaniard has either won or finished second so it pays to concentrate on the home crop of players.
This is a relatively short course that can be taken apart by the players and if you want to be in the mix on Sunday afternoon any score less than 20 under par probably won't cut it.
Neither length nor accuracy is overly favoured but I'd prefer the latter if anything and it's really what you do from then on which will decide your fate.
Pavon was only 27th in approach player last year and instead made his score on and around the greens ranking 1st in each of those categories.
For Rahm the year before it was a similar tail whilst it was Cabrera Bello's tee to green game that stole the show back in 2021.
Course form holds up reasonably well with Rahm being a double winner whilst Cabrera Bello and Pavon both won these events having been runner up the previous year.
Below are the stats for the top finishers in the past three editions of this competition.
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Open de Espana Tips
Niall Lyons has five selections for the Open de Espana - click on the links below to add them directly to your betslip.
- 3pts each-way P.Reed 20/1 (1/5 8) General
- 2pts each-way M.Pavon 25/1 (1/5 8) WilliamHill, Ladbrokes, Coral
- 1pt each-way K.Nakajima 75/1 (1/5 8) Bet365 8 place market
- 1pt each-way A.Otaegui 80/1 (1/5 6) Unibet, BetUK, Livescore
- 1pt each-way Y.Paul 75/1 (1/5 8) Bet365 8 place market
Patrick Reed at 20/1 (Eight Places)
Patrick Reed comes here after losing out in second place at the LIV Team Championship on Sunday evening.
A bogey free three under par round on Sunday looks solid preparation for what is to come in Madrid this week. He may have a fair degree of competition at the top end of the market here but after Manassero the likes of Fitzpatrick, Guerrier, Ferguson and co will hold no fear for Reed and their chances are boosted with neither of the Hojgaards teeing it up this week.
This gives a mighty opportunity to those experienced few at the head of the market and Reed looks the most tempting at anything of 20/1 or above.
He sits 4th in the LIV rankings for scrambling this year and looking at the tables above no matter how good or bad your ball striking was for the week scrambling has always played a huge part.
We know his strengths on and around the greens and Club de Campo should be the perfect track for him. Tree lined just like Augusta that he loves and of course work around the greens there is always to the fore.
Still only 34 years old Reed could do with putting down a marker for the Ryder Cup next year and rest assured he will battle for it over the next eleven months.
Mathieu Pavon at 25/1 (Eight Places)
It's a little to hard to ignore Mathieu Pavon's form here and there must be every chance he continues on his merry way here at Club de Campo.
Who would have thought what last year's victory was going to be the springboard to and he'll have very fond memories coming back here once again.
He was average last week but with a poor enough record around Wentworth I'm happy to overlook 40th placed finish there.
There should be improvement this week and he absolutely loves this place. His last eight rounds here read 63-68-66-64-64-68-68-65. That is really formidable form and similar to Rahm.
However we see 3/1 versus the 25/1 and I know which one I'd much rather chance.
Pavon is much improved from his victory here last year and given that course form carries on so consistently at this venue I'm more than happy to chance the 25/1.
2pts each-way M.Pavon 25/1 (1/5 8) WilliamHill, Ladbrokes, Coral
Keita Nakajima at 75/1 (Eight Places)
Keita Nakajima produced one of the performances of the season in India back in March to secure an early victory in his fledgling career and when he drifts to numbers like these it's worth taking note.
It has been no disaster since that victory finishing 11th in the Handa Championship, 6th at the European Open and 20th at the BMW International Open.
Two missed cuts that followed in Scotland were in the strongest of fields and last time out he was 33rd at the British Masters.
The aspect that makes him so appealing at these types of odds is that his ceiling is so high. Earlier in the year I would have been bullish that he'd be one of those who manages to gain a PGA Tour card for next year courtesy of the Race to Dubai rankings, but he has a fair bit to do from here.
Another victory would give him every chance and he's more than capable of upstaging the big names here in Madrid.
Adrian Otaegui at 80/1 (Six Places)
Adrian Otaegui has made all three of his cuts on this track and there's reason to believe there is better to come this week at Club de Campo.
His record here reads 28-17-61 but he was 9th at halfway back in 2019 meaning he has been inside the top 20 at the end of 5 of his 12 rounds here.
The Spaniards go well in this event and there is plenty to like about his performances of late. He was 20th in the field last week in the tee to green statistic and 3rd the week before in the Irish Open.
Prior to that his long game was in excellent nick at the Belfry only to be undone by a horrible week with the putter.
That has been the story of his last few months but there was improvement in that department at Royal County Down, and further improvement last week at Wentworth so if he can find some form with the putter he could be in the final few groups teeing off on Sunday.
1pt each-way A.Otaegui 80/1 (1/5 6) Unibet, BetUK, Livescore
Yannick Paul at 75/1 (Eight Places)
Yannick Paul started off 2024 in similar fashion to his impressive 2023 effort but it hasn't happened for him since and he must pick up the pace from here if he is to extend his season.
He now sits 70th in the Race to Dubai rankings which is a precarious position as it's the top 70 that make the cut to the Abu Dhabi Championship next month.
That should serve as fair motivation for the German and the signs are good following to good week with the irons in Ireland and England.
The short game cost him at Royal County Down but last week was much better at Wentworth and he managed a top 20 finish.
He was 8th here back in 2022 and looks a decent price having showed improvement with his long game of late.
