DP World Tour Championship

Niall Lyons is 294.66 points in profit going into this week's DP World Tour Championship.

Just seven players, Hojgaard, McIlroy, Rahm, Morikawa, Fitzpatrick, Willett and Stenson have shared the last 11 renewals of the tournament so clearly if you don't have a Major Championship already bagged, or an extremely bright future ahead of you, you need not apply to lifting this trophy on Sunday. 

Runner ups down the years since 2011 include Paul Lawrie, Justin Rose, Shane Lowry and Patrick Reed so the quality it takes to contend here cannot be underestimated. 

A glance further down the betting board may provide the odd bit of value, but the results themselves spell out that class sets itself apart in this event and we'll more than likely have a winner from one of the game's elite. Stenson (twice), McIlroy (twice), Fitzpatrick (twice) and Rahm (three times) makes previous winners of this event much more likely to perform again. 

Not one particular statistic leaps off the page when looking at contenders here but you'll need pinpoint iron play to give yourself the best chances and a hot putter if you want to be fighting this out on Sunday evening.

DP World Tour Championship Tips

 

Rory McIlroy @ 11/2 (Win)

50 competitors go down to post for the season ending DP World Tour Championship with some notable absentees and I'll explain why I think Rory McIlroy is a confident bet as a result. 

Ludvig Aberg continues to play it safe following surgery earlier in the year whilst three time winner here Jon Rahm is another missing. Viktor Hovland doesn't make the grade and this results in a completely different tournament to what we'd normally see here. 

Last year, an in form Hovland, McIlroy and Rahm all went off 5/1 joint favourites. Hatton was 11/1, Fleetwood 12/1 and another 2024 absentee Matthew Fitzpatrick was the same price. 

Rahm and Fitzpatrick account for five of the last eight winners of this event. With Nicolai Hojgaard not making the top 50 either this results in McIlroy being the only former course winner in attendance this week. 

Hatton has undoubtedly improved to be second jolly, but I'd argue Fleetwood is playing to a similar standard of last year and whilst Niemann is an addition this time around I don't think McIlroy will be too afraid of the Chilean. 

Matt Wallace, Bob MacIntyre and Billy Horschel have all had good years, but they're not quite to the standard that McIlroy has had to deal with here in the past. With 5/1 or maybe bigger available on the exchanges I just see him having a much bigger chance than previous, much stronger renewals of this event. 

Hatton and Fleetwood have strong credentials there is no doubt but they haven't managed a victory here in 21 tries between them. McIlroy has (twice) and he certainly has less to beat than what he did here last year. He flew home last week for 3rd and this track suits him a shade more.  

Rory drove and putted the ball impressively last week and even with his irons not totally firing he still shot 21 under par. It could indeed be Hatton's year given the way he has played over the last few months but I can't help but feel he isn't quite to the same standard as last year’s favs Rahm and Hovland.

5pts is my maximum bet on this column but personally I'll be having my biggest bet of the year on the Irishman to deliver the goods here.

5pts WIN R.McIlroy  11/2 (Bet365 enhanced win market)

Matt Wallace @ 18/1 (Six Places)

Whilst I'm confident Rory is a big slice of value in this event, generally speaking it's a tough gig and it's usually a matter of judgement rather than getting guaranteed value in your price. 

Not many leap off the board but I believe good form last week is a huge positive and I'll have my next bet on Matt Wallace who matched McIlroy's score of 21 under par last week for a tie of 3rd place. The Englishman has made it his goal to qualify for the Ryder Cup next year and he has made a bold bid so far with his victory in the Swiss Mountains and his subsequent form. 

Last week his 21 under par total was compiled despite being one of the worst putters in the field. That is a shade encouraging given he has bounced back regularly from poor putting performances this year. Instead look to his long game in Abu Dhabi where he ranked 10th off the tee and 3rd on approach. 

He was runner up here last year and in 2018 and putted extremely well on both occasions. He will be quietly confident of another big effort following last week and he looks the pick of the challengers to the market leaders. 

2pts each-way M.Wallace 18/1  (1/5 6) General

Andy Sullivan @ 125/1 (Six Places)

I don't see many other opportunities for a bet here but I'll have a small play on Andy Sullivan who could well be re-ignited by his good friend Paul Waring winning last weekend in Abu Dhabi. 

An incredible performance by Waring beating some of the best in the world is hugely inspiring for the likes of Sullivan and having a decent record here he could go well once again. 

Sullivan ran McIlroy close here in 2015 finishing runner up 1 shot behind the winner and with two top 10s the last two years he generally outplays expectations around the Earth Course. 

His iron play will need to improve but he's putting well enough and may be one who could get into the placings here at the weekend. 

0.75pt each-way A.Sullivan  125/1  (1/5 6) Skybet, Unibet