Niall Lyons has picked out two selections for this week's Hero World Challenge tournament in the Bahamas.
Hero World Challenge
This week's trip to Albany in the Bahamas for the Hero World Challenge sees the last of the individual competitive action in 2024 on the PGA Tour for the top players in the world and they as well as me will surely be glad of the upcoming month break.
20 men fields with a handful of the world's best are never easy to work out, especially when it's not a regular tour event and motivation is on the decline ahead of the festive break.
Nevertheless the market leaders here never turn up an opportunity of a victory in this quality of field. Albany is as easy as they come with 18 under par being the winning score four of the last nine renewals here, with four others at 20 under or better.
Bubba Watson, Rahm, Scheffler and Hovland have all won here hitting the ball a long way off the tee, but Stenson and Fowler's wins suggest length is not a pre requisite to contend.
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At just over 7400 yards the par 72 is there for the taking for all golfers those who can manage to hole a fair amount of putts over the four days.
Although Matsuyama has improved his short game when he won back in 2016 he certainly wasn't renowned for it, neither was Bubba Watson.
Hovland is another who has had plenty of question marks surrounding his short game. This suggests it is a simpler task, and it is as it's pretty flat and straightforward.
Watson is twice a runner up at Scottsdale, same as Fowler who has also managed a win at Scottsdale, whilst Matsuyama is a double winner around that venue.
Finau is a runner up on both Albany and Scottsdale and the 2022 and 2023 Waste Management winner Scottie Scheffler has finished runner up here twice and won last year.
There are certainly similarities between the tests, with Albany having the desert feel as well as it being a flat resort type test that rewards bold, risky golf.
Arizona certainly looks like the place to start in terms of narrowing our search for a potential winner.
Hero World Challenge Tips
- 3.5pts each-way L.Aberg 12/1 (1/5 4) General
- 2pts each-way S.Theegala 25/1 (1/5 4) AK Bets, Spreadex, Sportingindex
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Ludvig Aberg at 12/1 (Four Places)
When getting involved with shorter prices it's important not to have many worries and having not played competitive golf in two months bar the Presidents Cup I'll happily pass on Scottie Scheffler at 5/2.
It's worth noting that two months off didn't hinder him last year when he won but at such a short price of 5/2 it's difficult to get involved.
Don't get me wrong, finding value in this field is not an easy task and again it's more a matter of judgement.
Look to the Masters betting in April and you'll see Patrick Cantlay a general 33/1 shot to land the green jacket. Justin Thomas is as big as 50/1.
Ludvig Aberg is 14/1 for the Masters and a couple of pts bigger for the others. Yet this week we see Cantlay 3 points shorter than Aberg and Thomas the same price.
Now Aberg's recent return from a lengthy lay off coupled with a good run at Augusta on debut contributes a little to those prices but it looks a shade out of whack for this week and I'm happy to give Aberg a rattle at 12/1.
His price of 14/1 at Augusta includes the likes of Schauffele, McIlroy, Rahm, Morikawa, Hovland, Dechamebau, Koepka and co who are all missing from Albany this week.
Aberg's game didn't fire in Sea Island a couple of weeks ago yet he still managed two 64s to finish inside the top 20.
That was a really fair return to action and he could benefit against the field here for having a decent run out and solid preparation for a return to golf over the last month or so.
He is much more likely to be tuned in as many others here and I don't quite believe the bookmakers have got this one right and I firmly believe he should be comfortable second jolly this week.
Sahith Theegala at 25/1 (Four Places)
Since moving to Albany this event has almost always produced world class winners and only two of the last seven who have triumphed here have yet to win a Major Championship.
Both of those have runner ups in Majors though so it goes to show you the quality that usually comes to the forefront here.
With Finau now a non runner I'm looking to add another and one of the better options at the prices looks to be Sahith Theegala.
Theegala has achieved plenty thus far in a short career to date with a victory last year at the Fortinet but some high class runner ups, most notably the Sentry last year.
That course has many of the same characteristics, by the coast and ready for low scores, all be it there is very little undulation here in the Bahamas.
He is one who has had a couple of run outs post the Tour Championship and it'd be no surprise should he manage to cap the year off with a fine run here.
He went well all the way in the PGA Championship inside the top 3 for the first three rounds before faltering due to some final round pressure.
That's easily forgiven and he will improve for those experiences and at 25/1 looks to be slightly under the handicapper.
2pts each-way S.Theegala 25/1 (1/5 4) AK Bets, Spreadex, Sportingindex
