Niall Lyons has four selections from the Alfred Dunhill Championship at Leopard Creek Golf Club in South Africa.
Alfred Dunhill Championship
The penultimate week of the year, the Alfred Dunhill Championship takes place at the special Leopard Creek Golf Club in South Africa on the edge of the Kruger National Park.
The course went under the knife in 2017 with a change in grass from Kikuyu to Cynodon as well as the greens being changed to Bermuda from Bentgrass.
We've seen the course firm up as a result and a handful of the renewals since have been tougher affairs.
Larrazabal won in 2019 with a score of 8 under limping home in the end struggling in the conditions.
Sandwiched either side of the Spaniard have been Lipsky and Bezuidenhout both winning at 14 under par, considerably less than the 20 under par+ scores that won two of the previous three.
18 under was the winning total each of the last two years and this course clearly has a little more bite to it than prior to the renovation.
South Africans have won the last three stagings here so even a move from the kikuyu rough here hasn't really stopped their domination.
Fairways are notoriously difficult to find and it'll be those who can tick off plenty of greens in regulation or who bring a sharp short game to Leopard Creek who will be in the mix come Sunday.
Valderrama looks one course in particular to look to when searching for a correlating course.
Christian Bezuidenhout won at Valderrama then here back in 2020 whilst 2022 Valderrama Champion Adrian Otaegui finished runner up here having won in Spain a few weeks previous.
With this course having toughened up in recent years it makes sense than one of the more challenging courses down the years lends some similarities to Leopard Creek.
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Alfred Dunhill Championship Tips
- 3pts each-way C.Schwartzel 25/1 (1/5 8) Skybet
- 3.5pts WIN D.Burmester 14/1 (Betvictor, Betfred)
- 1pt each-way A.Sullivan 55/1 (1/5 6) Paddypower
- 0.75pt each-way J.Lagergren 175/1 (1/5 8) Skybet
Charl Schwartzel at 25/1 (Eight Places)
Around ten years or so ago Charl Schwartzel used to turn up here as a 3/1 favourite and from 2013 to 2016 he won three of these titles.
Prior to that he had two runner up finishes and there's not many players in the world who have a better course record at any single golf course.
A big factor here is that Schwartzel arrived here in December last year having finished outside the top 40 at Blair Atholl and having missed the cut in Joburg.
Prior to that average finishes on the LIV tour and a missed cut in Singapore meant Schwartzel arrived in really poor nick.
However, he ran Oosthuizen close going down by two shots finishing runner up.
That is a sure sign of just how dangerous he is around Leopard Creek and despite possibly being passed his best I feel there's an argument he could be a good deal shorter than what he's currently priced.
In the strokeplay part of LIV Dallas in September he shot 6 under to sit 3rd in that field and with his runner up in Qatar a few weeks ago behind Uihlein and two shots of clear of Oosthuizen I believe he is currently better handicapped than the tournament favourites and worth the risk here that he recaptures old glories.
Dean Burmester at 14/1 (WIN)
Bernd Wiesberger was considered at the price given his quality, but exactly that has been lacking of late and it's difficult to see him bouncing back quickly enough to win here at a venue on which he hasn't performed well on before.
With several good performances at Leopard Creek as an amateur Connor Syme is another worth always having a close eye on here.
Should he start well he may be one worth getting on in running. However I see this difficult to wrestle off the strong South African contingent towards the top of the market and I wish to have another one in my staking plan and I'll opt for Dean Burmester.
Over the last couple of years Burmester has had the edge over Louis in terms of head to heads on the LIV Tour and although Louis has the course form here I don't particularly buy into the market that he should be 5pts bigger than the defending champion.
Burmester's last four trips to this tour read 12-44-win-win.
Add in the LIV Miami win earlier in the year and a victory in South Africa a few weeks ago and I believe he is every bit as strong a candidate here than Oosthuizen.
The course form is entitled to make Louis head the market for sure but I'm more than happy to play a recent winner at a bigger price.
Andy Sullivan at 55/1 (Six Places)
One victory in eight years will have Andy Sullivan very frustrated but as I wrote for the DP World Tour Championship there was always a chance he would be inspired by Paul Waring, his good friend winning in Abu Dhabi.
He performed reasonably well at the Earth Course finishing 24th then last week at the Nedbank he finished 14th having been 3rd after the first 18 holes.
The Englishman is possibly turning things around and a solid display last week is a good foundation for Leopard Creek where he finished 3rd back in 2012, and 7th last year.
He landed his first tour victory in South Africa back in 2015 and looks a fair price to get into the mix here once again.
Joakim Lagergren at 175/1 (Eight Places)
Joakim Lagergren is one of the outsiders I am drawn to here having had a tremendous year on the Challenge circuit.
Two victories there saw him inside the top ten in the Mallorca rankings and a DPWT card once again at his disposal.
There is little doubt he is better in windy conditions and often by the coast but at 33 years of age now he has gained plenty of experience and it would be no surprise to me should we see him back in the winners circle this season.
This is a tall order no doubt in a field of this quality but having been a runner up at Valderrama before and a couple of top 3 finishes at the Dunhill Links he is capable of scoring in tricky conditions and he be able to hit the ground running here at Leopard Creek where he finished inside the top 40 last year.
