Niall Lyons has four selections for this week's Mauritius Open held at Mont Choisy Le Golf.
Mauritius Open
We close the door on 2024 this weekend after the Mauritius Open and I'd like to take the chance to thank my readers throughout the year for taking the time to digest these previews week to week.
Golf previewers and tipsters will tell you it's a long old slog throughout the year and the only thing that makes it worthwhile is whether people read it, or indeed we make some money along the way.
Thankfully we have both and it's something I never take for granted.
Mont Choisy Le Golf is the venue this week in Mauritius and it's the second time this event has been held here last staging the 2022/23 edition a couple of years ago when Antoine Rozner blitzed the field to win by five shots.
An exposed track with five par 5s looking back it was right up the Frenchman's avenue and it was no surprise the way he performed.
Good conditions await this week and although there is a solid wind throughout, it's relatively light and shouldn't pose too many problems for the players here.
Scores should be extremely low given the favourable weather and it'll be those who can make it pay at the par 5s who will no doubt be fighting this out over the weekend.
Looking back to 2022 we have strokes gained stats and although we can't take too much from only one edition anyway, it is difficult to pinpoint one particular area that demands more attention from the other.
Rozner was the best putter in the field which always helps but he was 3rd from tee to green also. He hit the most greens and was 2nd in strokes gained approach. That is obviously a potent combination that explains the five shot victory.
Distance nor accuracy didn't seem to matter much but overall 8 of the top 10 were inside the top 20 in strokes gained tee to green and maybe that's where to concentrate.
Rozner was 14 under for the par 5s and a similar score will be necessary to compete this week.
Below is a look at the stats for the top performers in the 2022 edition of this tournament when last held at Mont Choisy Le Golf.
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Mauritius Open Tips
- 2.5pts each-way D.Brown 50/1 (1/5 8) Bet65 8 place market
- 1.25pts each-way C.Lamprecht 60/1 (1/5 7) Paddypower
- 1.25pts each-way L.Bjerregaard 80/1 (1/5 8) Skybet
- 1pt each-way J.Lagergren 100/1 (1/5 8) Skybet
Daniel Brown at 50/1 (Eight Places)
The future is anyone's guess but fortunately I'm in charge of attempting to predict it and I feel there are bigger and better things ahead for Daniel Brown following a somewhat rollercoaster year in 2024.
He gained his first tour victory in 2023 by winning in the North of Ireland by five shots and with a 3rd place finish here in Mauritius last December it didn't look like it was going to be long before he added another.
It didn't arrive but there were numerous close calls and on the weeks that he did play well, he went close.
Three top 5 finishes followed that Mauritius effort with the most notable being 4th at Royal County Down behind the likes of Rasmus and McIlroy.
He managed to stay calm amidst even more accomplished company at Troon where he landed a top ten finish.
Those finishes begin to give him a profile of where we may see him at his best and once again an exposed track should be perfect for him.
A month off isn't ideal but plenty here may be tiring following a South African / Australian journey and Brown may well be able to capitalise on a few beginning to look forward to their Christmas carvings.
There aren't many here in this field who made it all the way to Dubai last month and I'm really, really surprised the likes of Southgate and Green are nearly half Brown's odds.
Christ Lamprecht at 60/1 (Seven Places)
I'm happy to give Christ Lamprecht a go back in this division following a respectable showing at the PGA Tour Q School last week.
19th wasn't enough there but he was playing in decent company, and had been prior to that also.
23rd in Bermuda was a fine effort following an opening 73 as he beat most of the field there over the final three days.
Playing all four days of the RSM Classic was another sign that the South African may be beginning to find his feet following a somewhat stalling start to his professional career.
It must be said that this is a pretty weak affair in Mauritius and should Rozner fluff his lines following a month off this is for the taking and Lamprecht has been mixing it in much better quarters of late and could see the benefit of that competitive nature of the Q School.
Pressure will be somewhat off him compared to last week and this open track should be perfect for him to open his shoulders and let rip.
Approach play will probably need to improve for him to win here but he has a much higher ceiling than many around him in the same price bracket and those dropping in grade must always be closely watched.
Lucas Bjerregaard at 80/1 (Eight Places)
Lucas Bjerregaard was inside the top 25 after three rounds last week before slumping to a final round 80 at Leopard Creek but he has a good profile for this event and an exposed, open track such as Mont Choisy should play perfectly into his hands.
Similar to Rozner he has a good record on exposed, windy tracks. A former winner of the Dunhill Links back in 2018, Bjerregaard's other victory came in Portugal, another track where it regularly blows hard.
Just two starts ago the Dane he turned up around the 25/1 mark for the Challenge Tour Grand Final, whilst Ayora was an 18/1 shot.
Now the Spaniard performed better that week and has taken like a duck to water on the DPWT since so he's entitled to be a fair bit shorter.
However, it has gone from a 7pt difference in price to a 66pt difference and with a track that really should favour Bjerregaard I don't quite buy that it should be that big.
Joakim Lagergren at 100/1 (Eight Places)
A missed cut kicked off Joakim Lagergren's new term on tour but Leopard Creek can be extremely punishing and it's one of those quirky layouts that I can almost write off a bit of bad form.
Instead we can look to the Swede's body of form this year which includes two victories and with conditions to suit here can be expected to go much better than last week.
His sole victory on the DPWT came at an exposed track in Sicily back in 2018 whilst a runner up in Qatar and two podium finishes at the Dunhill Links suggest this is where his strengths lie and I'll give him a chance to put his best foot forward once again at triple figure prices.
