Dubai Desert Classic

This week's Dubai Desert Classic will be held at Emirates GC, Dubai. The Majlis course here in Dubai is well known to all DPWT fans and usually provides an entertaining finish with an exciting final par 5 where just about anything can happen.

Who will forget McIlroy and Reed fighting it out during the final 9 holes here a few years ago in one of the most enthralling DPWT finishes in a long time.

Down the years no particular statistic stands much taller than any others but SG off the tee certainly appears to be the most important.

McIlroy won last year finishing 1st off the tee, and 2nd from tee to green. The year prior he was 2nd and 4th in the same categories.

Hovland was 2nd off the tee, and 3rd tee to green two years ago when winning. Casey won the previous year having topped the tee to green stat.

Arnaus was 3rd in 2020 topping the same stat so it would certainly suggest long and straight driving is a huge advantage.

Plenty of contenders here have also finished low down the strokes gained approach stat for the week which is surprising as most weeks it's a decent barometer as to who contends, however this course appears on the contrary.

Instead a good driving game coupled with a solid putter makes for a good combination around here.

Below are the stats for the top performers in the last three editions of this event.

 

Dubai Desert Classic Tips

 

The winners and placers here have been a 'who's who' of Open and Links specialists.

2018 Champion Haotong Li finished 3rd on his first trip over the Open. 2017 Champion and runner up Garcia and Stenson have long been Open experts. McIlroy, Woods, Els and O'Meara are other winners here that have held the Claret Jug aloft.

In 2013 and 2014 Stephen Gallacher went back to back here and one of his two other European Tour wins arrived at the Dunhill Links.

Add in some correlation with Dom Pedro in Portugal and you have a base on which to work through the field.

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Rasmus Hojgaard at 22/1 (6 Places)

McIlroy didn't have Rahm and Hovland to beat in Dubai in November yet we got a bigger price and although his record here is outstanding, it's enough to temper enthusiasm about getting involved around the 7/2 mark.

The top four in the market all look to have about the right mark and the prudent approach looks to be further down the betting board.

It does take a quality operator to win around here and I'm happy to select Rasmus Hojgaard who although he doesn't have a lot to prove given his success to date, will be looking to become a European ace in the pack when it comes to the Ryder Cup later this year.

A win in this type of event would go a long way and it looks the perfect setup for him. If there was a weakness to his game prior to the last Ryder Cup it was probably his approach play and that was the reason why he hadn't become an elite player.

That changed in 2024 and his iron play was magnificent throughout. The Irish Open victory seemed like a breakthrough given who he had to beat there and he finished the year off in fine style giving McIlroy the scare of his life at the Earth course, where if he had have won would have put a serious dent in the Irishman's confidence.

Rasmus has the power game off the tee here to go alongside recent winners such as McIlroy and Hovland and finishes of 9th, 20th and 11th in three of his last four visits here suggest he has enough to compete.

His iron play throughout those finishes hasn't been sparkling, so there's optimism in the fact that his approach play has significantly improved since his last visit here.

He salvaged some pride last Sunday when coming from 3 down against Aaron Rai and shooting a 4 under par back 9 to manage a tie.

That run out could prove to be an advantage and if any of the second wave of golfers are to come out on top against the four favourites, then maybe it's best to side with one who has recent experience of doing so.

3pts each-way R.Hojgaard  22/1  (1/5 6) Betway

Min Woo Lee at 33/1 (Seven Places)

The SG approach numbers are intriguing here at the Majlis even though last year was a particular good year with the irons for the contenders.

In 2023 Herbert finished 3rd having ranked 27th whilst Shinkwin ranked 63rd on approach when finishing 4th.

In 2022 Bland ranked 40th on approach when runner up and McIlroy 38th when tucked in behind Bland.

It spells to me you can get away with shortcomings here with your iron play as long as you drive the ball exceptionally well and have the adequate short game.

All roads then lead to Min Woo Lee who always comes into the conversation when iron play isn't quite the most important aspect of the week.

That doesn't happen often on the two main tours but there's an argument this week and if Min Woo can hit the ground running he has a serious chance to upset the market leaders.

He finished 13th last year having opened with a 73 and with his prowess off the tee he could be a big player if he manages a middling week with his approach play.

Of the winners I mentioned above a lot of them had winning links form which Lee has having won the Scottish Open back in 2021 so for my money he is the perfect fit for this event and to improve upon that top 15 finish last year.

2pts each-way Min Woo Lee  33/1  (1/5 7) Skybet, Paddypower

Thomas Pieters at 70/1 (Seven Places)

Ryan Fox turning up at 80/1 catches the eye and having played well off the tee towards the end of last year can't be discounted from getting into the mix here at the weekend.

Dean Burmester is another ball buster who has enough off the tee to contend here but his price looks about right in this quality of field.

I've tried hard to exclude Thomas Pieters for many reasons, one being that he needs everything to fall right for a victory, including mentally but I keep coming back to the price and I can't let him go unbacked here at anything of 66/1 or above.

He really didn't have the best of years in 2024 but it ended with him signing for Dustin Johnson's team the 4 Aces on the LIV Tour.

Towards the end of the year he was playing solid but not spectacular in the Asian Tour events finishing 13th in Qatar then 9th in Saudi.

In his last strokeplay event on the LIV Tour in Chicago he was 11th just one shot behind the likes of Koepka and Dechambeau.

His last two trips to the DPWT have resulted in 9th and 2nd placed finishes in the BMW International Open and Soudal Open.

Prior to that his last effort on this tour was 6th here in Dubai back in 2023. Along with a 12th placed finish in 2022 Pieters has now shown decent form at this track and with a powerful game off the tee has to be dangerous operator this week.

He may often play closer to his floor than his ceiling, but he is more than capable of mixing it with the big names and I can't resist a play at the prices. 

1.25pts each-way T.Pieters  70/1  (1/5 7) Paddypower