
Niall Lyons has six selections in this week's Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines, San Diego, California.
Farmers Insurance Open
The Farmers Insurance Open will be held at the North & South courses at Torrey Pines, San Diego, California. Last year Pavon won ranking 38th in driving distance whilst 3rd placed Lashley was 71st in the same statistic. Of the six who made the frame in 2023 only one broke into the top 30 in Driving Distance for the week.
In 2022, Luke List ranked 12th in that department but rankings of 30,28 and 74 made up three of the other top five. Patrick Reed won the previous year ranking 51st in driving distance so it is certainly no necessity to be one of the longest in the field.
We can clearly see though that a solid tee to green game is needed mostly made of up approach play and work around the greens. There are a few ways to skin this feline though and it's difficult to rule out many simply by analysing their stats.
In Reed's win for instance a poor enough week with the irons was saved by a tremendous short game. A West Coast trait is often Poa Annua greens and they feature once again at Torrey Pines.
This often gives Californian's an advantage having grown up on these surfaces and the odd time it'll lend itself to those who struggle on the greens as it's a shade more volatile than Bermuda.
None more so was this evident than when List won in 2022 having struggled all his career with the putter then producing one of his best efforts on the greens in many years.
Farmers Insurance Open Tips
- 4pts win H.Matsuyama 12/1 Bet365 enhanced win market
- 2pts each-way W.Zalatoris 25/1 (1/5 8) Skybet, Paddypower
- 1.5pt each-way T.Detry 60/1 (1/5 8) Paddypower
- 1pt each-way S.Stevens 100/1 (1/5 8) Skybet
- 1pt each-way A.Bhatia 45/1 (1/5 8) Paddypower
- 0.75pt each-way SH Kim 300/1 (1/5 8) Paddypower
Below is a look at the stats of the top performers in the past four editions of the Farmers Insurance Open.
Hideki Matsuyama at 12/1 (WIN)
Let's start with the tournament favourite and in Hideki Matsuyama I believe we have someone who is going to be a tough nut to crack here.
Now in double figure PGA Tour victories Matsuyama has somewhat elevated his status, if it wasn't already needed having been a Masters champion.
There is little doubt he has reached a new level and it has come just at the right time when a handful are skipping these events for various reasons.
With some of the games big hitters now left the tour also the door was wide open for Matsuyama to become one of the game's greats, and he has duly obliged.
The St Jude win last August was particularly impressive where he put the likes of Xander, Scheffler and Hovland to the sword when they were all firing.
His win at Riviera last year was another sign of the level he had reached and maybe we should have been more alive to his chances at the Sentry.
I don't want to make that mistake again and this is the perfect setup for him to put another marker down of just how well he is hitting the ball.
Two top 10s and a further three top 20s here show are a sign of how well he can go here and I'd argue he's never been in better shape.
I'd also argue this is one of the weaker renewals of this event and with Aberg's winless run continuing, Finau not quite the same force as what he was a couple of years ago and Sungjae winless in near four seasons, this is a major opportunity for Matsuyama to land another big named title and add it to his already bulky CV.
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Will Zalatoris at 25/1 (Eight Places)
Harris English was high up my list on the analysis of this track but it's hard to overcome some recent poor form, especially with the irons.
Will Zalatoris A fair effort in the Sentry was backed up last week with 12th place in the Californian Desert and he should be licking his lips at chance to tame Torrey this week.
A runner up, 7th and 13th placed finishes in five appearances here show just how suited he is to the track and a win is overdue for the injury ridden 28 year old.
Hopefully those worst days are behind him and he has all the major credentials to go well here once again.
This being a slightly weaker affair than usual should suit and I'd be surprised if he wasn't brimming with confidence after the last few weeks.
All bodes well and although I'd have preferred a slightly bigger price I'm happy to go in at 25/1 or above.
Thomas Detry at 60/1 (Eight Places)
There is no doubt Thomas Detry has been expensive to follow down the years but it's at courses like these where it may prove prudent to have him on your staking plan.
His last three Major performances dating back to the Open in 2023 read 14-4-13. They are impressive efforts in the best of fields and now he arrives at a Major Championship layout without a couple dozen of those to beat.
I wouldn't say Waialae was the perfect course for him so 53rd there was a fair effort, but 5th at the Sentry and a score of 24 under shows more what he is capable of and he drove the ball immaculately that week.
Torrey is a venue where he can thrive as it demands a good game off the tee and he gains a fair bit more on the field with his long irons as he does with his short irons.
The majority of approaches here come from 150-200+ yards and he can excel in that category.
He ranks fairly high on the par 5 birdie percentages also which is an advantage around here. With Pavon winning here last year he can take a fair amount of belief that he is capable of the same and anything above 50/1 is fair.
Sam Stevens at 100/1 (Eight Places)
Sam Stevens has started this year in unspectacular fashion but looking back to his last few efforts there are certainly reasons to be encouraged as he heads to Torrey Pines.
Stevens is a consistent driver of the golf ball being long and straight into the bargain.
His iron play is the slight weakness if anything but it was interesting to note his performance at Waialae where hr ranked 6th on approach for the week with a poor putting display being reason why he finished down the field.
Last week's course rotation makes his effort there difficult to analyse but level par for the Stadium Course despite one triple and one double bogey makes it a fair effort.
Stevens enjoys a long, tough layout as evident by his three made cuts in three major appearances thus far at LACC, The Country Club and Oak Hill.
Throw in two made cuts here including a 13th placed finish back in 2023 where he putted the lights out and he becomes one of the more interesting maidens in the field.
Akshay Bhatia at 45/1 (Eight Places)
I debated leaving Akshay Bhatia off the list simply because of his trip from Dubai but his price just looks a little too big to turn down.
The left hander finished down the field in Dubai but it's unfamiliar surroundings for him and in a strong enough field there are positives to be taken.
The negative here is the trip back to California, a long trip. The 22 year old should be able to cope with it though and had he been 33/1 across the board I'd have happily let him slide here.
However, 45/1+ presents itself and that's a fair bit bigger than my tissue.
At the back end of last year he finished 4th in the Hero in esteemed company and who can forget his victory in the Texas Open last April where he beat Rory McIlroy by nine shots.
He is excellent with his long irons, a big advantage around Torrey Pines and as long as he doesn't have a nightmare around the greens (always a chance with him) then he should feature this week.
4th at Vidanta in Mexico is another positive given Rahm and Finau have both won there and have tremendous records around here also.
Jake Knapp was the latest to back up course form on those two tracks where long irons are of extreme importance. I will reiterate the trip from Dubai is a big negative, but the price means he must be included.
SH Kim at 300/1 (Eight Places)
At big triple figure prices I believe SH Kim is worth a tickle here at Torrey.
Kim has found himself in nice positions in this event down the last couple of years only to falter a little at the end. He was lying 8th with one round to go in 2023 before falling to a final round of 76 to finish 20th.
The following year he opened with a 69 on the South Course and backed it up with a 68 on the North to sit 10th at halfway before faltering to a 77-72 weekend and down to 50th place.
Runner up at the Fortinet in California in 2023 on Poa greens is another positive for his chances, as is his runner up finish in the Bahamas just last week on the Korn Ferry Tour.
I expected the market to take a firmer grip on his price and he's the best outsider of the lot here this week.