After a 100/1 place last week Niall Lyons has five tips covering the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro AM this week.
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
In the second of eight signature events on the schedule. the top 50 from the previous year's Fedex Cup rankings qualify with around 30 more places available through other qualifying criteria.
As a result we get a much stronger field than that we had prior to the new qualifying criteria for this event and it's the return of the world number one that will be interesting this week given his recent injury.
2023 saw a change in format in this event with the Monterey course being binned and the players heading to Spyglass Hill for one round over the first two days and the other three rounds being played at Pebble Beach.
Course form holds up extremely well here. Snedeker (twice), Mickelson (4 times), Dustin Johnson (twice), Davis Love (twice) are a handful of golfers with multiple wins at Pebble since the turn of the century.
Numerous others have contended on a regular basis. Former Open winner Mark O'Meara won five times here at Pebble Beach. Woods, Mickelson and Spieth have joined that party since in winning the Open and this and it stands to reason that form by the sea is often an advantage heading into this event.
Justin Rose was the first European winner of this event dating all the way back to the 1930s and only him, Brett Ogle, Vijay Singh and Nick Taylor have wrestled it off the Americans in the last 60+ years.
With the small greens here approach play is key, especially from the 75-150 yard distance. Scrambling is also a heavy part of the equation and those who putt well on Poa Annua greens should also be closely watched.
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Tips
- 4pts Win J.Thomas 16/1 Bet365
- 1.5pts each-way T.Fleetwood 33/1 (1/5 6) Skybet
- 1.25pts each-way R.Henley 60/1 (1/5 7) Paddypower
- 1pt each-way D.McCarthy 100/1 (1/5 7) WilliamHill
- 1pt each-way E.Cole 125/1 (1/5 6) Unibet, Livescore
Below is a look at the stats of the top performers in the last three editions of this tournament.
Justin Thomas at 16/1 (WIN)
Experience around here is a huge advantage with a minimum of three starts previously looking like the ideal preparation to land a victory.
One who fits that bill and who is playing solid golf of late is Patrick Cantlay and he was close to making the plan this week.
If anything it is his recent approach play that puts me off a little, and this is an event where wedge play is absolutely key.
Instead at a slightly shorter price I'm quite bullish on the chances of Justin Thomas and after two and a half years his winless run may be about to end.
Scheffler will have question marks hanging over him regarding his fitness and you'll need to be brave to get involved with him this week without seeing some evidence that the hand surgery hasn't had any lasting effects.
McIlroy has only played this event twice down the years finishing 66th last year then missing the cut back in 2018.
He went better under US Open conditions finishing 9th but a test such as this maybe makes it a little tougher for the elite golfers to kick clear.
That being said there haven't been a whole pile of big priced winners here and instead most come in the top 20 or so in the market.
Thomas is playing excellent golf and where the Scheffler and McIlroy maybe prefer a different type of test than this, Thomas is capable in almost all conditions and Pebble may suit him a little more than the favs.
His approach play has been sparkling for 6 months now and if there's a small question mark around anything it will be on his putting on Poa Annua greens.
That is still difficult to predict no matter who the golfer but Thomas' long game is in the best shape it has been in a long time and coming off the back of a runner up finish at the Amex he looks like the best play at the front of the market.
Tommy Fleetwood at 33/1 (Six Places)
Sam Burns is a lively runner and should he see any improvement in his short irons he'll be lurking come the weekend.
Around the same price though Tommy Fleetwood looks the better option and I believe he is one good putting week away from landing that elusive stateside victory.
The Englishman has been plagued by an underperforming putter for months now coming up short on a handful of occasions simply because of this club.
His long game is as consistent as ever and a return to Poa Annua greens by the Ocean should see him gain a little bit more than usual with that club.
He is up there with the best approach players in the world and a glance towards the Open Championship betting makes for interesting reading.
For Portrush the max you can get about him is 25/1, a field that includes Schauffele, Rahm, Dechambeau, Hatton and Hovland amongst others.
All those are absent here at Pebble and given there are plenty of Open specialists who have had success here down the years we can't turn our noses up at the 33/1 quotes available here this week.
It will probably depend on the putter, but this surface should help to bridge the gap.
Russell Henley at 60/1 (Seven Places)
It wouldn't surprise me to see Amdrew Novak go well once again followings last weeks effort and if he can dial in his wedges then he may be a runner once again.
Russell Henley is always a difficult one to judge with remarkable consistency in his results but only one win in seven years makes you think twice about adding him to your staking plan.
My preference would be to bet him at bigger odds in the stronger fields given he is more than capable of beating anyone on his day.
With the two favs taking up a chunk of the market, the value lies elsewhere and Henley should see this as a big opportunity.
He is an expert around short coastal tracks, and indeed his last victory was at Mayakoba just over two years ago.
He ticks all the boxes in terms of the yardage approach statistics and the key to him turning a top 10 into a victory here will probably be whether or not he can see an improvement in putting on the Poa Annua greens.
He doesn't have a lot of joy on this surface but at the price I'm happy to include him given the positives elsewhere.
Denny McCarthy at 100/1 (Seven Places)
Shane Lowry is still hitting the ball extremely well and any improvement in his short game could mean him making a mockery of quotes as big as 66/1.
Denny McCarthy is now on his 8th full season on the PGA Tour on the spin. A stellar achievement for someone who is yet to bag a victory on the main tour, but there are reasons to suggest this may be one of the perfect venues for him.
McCarthy doesn't hit the ball a long way and instead relies upon a sparkling short game to make his score.
He is no slouch with the irons but if anything that is what holds him back in terms of competing at the business end more often.
That being said, last time out at Waialae he had his best week with the irons since he finished runner up in Texas last April.
That bodes well and given there is no undisclosed issues from a withdrawal at the AMEX I see McCarthy as someone who could easily appear on the first page of the leaderboard here on Sunday evening.
He putts very well on Poa Annua (and anywhere for that matter) and if he turns up with a similar approach game as to what he had in Hawaii then he's a very interesting outsider.
Eric Cole at 125/1 (Six Places)
Beau Hossler should see this as one of his better chances and although high up my list this week I believe he has been priced accordingly.
At a bigger price I prefer Eric Cole who can take positives from a made cut last week on a course that doesn't really suit.
Some of his best results have come on shorter tracks where approach play and short game are key.
Runner up at the Honda, 3rd at the RSM Classic and 5th just a few weeks ago at Waialae are signs of just what type of course he needs to contend.
His wedge play from 100-150 yards has been excellent over the last twelve months and he's one of the best birdie hunters in the field despite lacking a fair amount of strength off the tee.
14th and 15th each of the last two years here at Pebble, Cole likes it here and should his best foot forward once again.
